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2009/05/01

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THE PROGRESS REPORT
May 1, 2009

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Matt Duss


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NATIONAL SECURITY

Iraq's Still-Violent Reality

Even as violence in Iraq has declined from the catastrophic levels seen from 2005 to 2007, terrorism has continued to be a daily fact of life. In the past several months, the frequency of suicide bombings has risen to a level unseen in over a year. Just over 400 Iraqi civilians were killed in March, up from 346 in February, and 296 in January. On April 24, two suicide bombers killed at least 75 people outside a Shiite shrine in northern Baghdad. This past Wednesday, five car bombs and a roadside bomb exploded in Baghdad, killing at least 48 people. According to the Washington Post, the attacks "appear designed to discredit Iraq's security forces as the U.S. military starts to withdraw from urban areas." The attacks are also meant to exacerbate sectarian tension, and, according to the Post, "could prompt militiamen loyal to anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to take up arms to defend their neighborhoods, which many have been eager to do since [Sadr] imposed a cease-fire in the fall of 2007." The government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki "has blamed Sunni insurgents and members of the Baath Party for the recent attacks."

A DELAYED DRAWDOWN?: According to his withdrawal timeline announced in February, President Obama planned for U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraqi cities by June 30 of this year. The New York Times reported Sunday that, because of continuing violence, the U.S. and Iraq "will begin negotiating possible exceptions to the June 30 deadline for withdrawing American combat troops from Iraqi cities, focusing on the troubled northern city of Mosul, according to military officials. Some parts of Baghdad also will still have combat troops." Representatives of the Kurdistan Regional Government, who have complained about what they see as strong-arm tactics by the central government in Baghdad, have requested the U.S. "to retain up to 50,000 troops in the autonomous Kurdish area." Asked at Wednesday's press conference whether the steadily rising violence in Iraq would affect the withdrawal timetable he announced in February, President Obama responded that "part of the reason why I called for a gradual withdrawal as opposed to a precipitous one was precisely because more work needs to be done on the political side to further isolate whatever remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq still exist." An administration official later told McClatchy, however, that "we are not even talking about" changing the withdrawal plan. "The situation would have to get a lot worse for that to change."

IRAQ'S STRONG MAN: Maliki has achieved considerable success in establishing himself as a strong leader and consolidating the central government's power. Recently, Iraqi security forces announced the capture of "a leader of the Sunni insurgency who had been in league with members of Saddam Hussein's ousted Baath Party." This came on the heels of a number of clashes between government troops and members of the Sunni Awakening groups -- former insurgent elements who allied with U.S. forces against Al Qaeda and have received a large share of credit for the improved security in Iraq. Government forces have also been arresting many Awakening leaders on charges of continuing involvement in terrorism and crime. Members of the movement complain that they have not been given promised jobs, and are being abandoned by their U.S. allies to the mercy of Shia-controlled government that has little interest in genuine reconciliation. Noting that a political settlement has not followed the drop in violence, journalist Nir Rosen writes that "the tepid response to the arrest of...Awakening men suggests that a political reconciliation may not have been necessary. The burgeoning Iraqi state, embodied by Maliki himself, can simply continue to expand its power and crush any rivals." 

POLITICAL CHALLENGES REMAIN: On April 21, the Senate finally confirmed Christopher Hill as the new U.S. ambassador to Iraq. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called Hill "a proven, expert negotiator, a problem-solver and...one of the best diplomats we have." It is believed that Hill's skills as a negotiator make him well-suited to facilitate Iraqi factions overcoming some of the significant political challenges that remain. At his press conference this week, Obama listed some of the key challenges that remain in Iraq, such as "making sure that how they divvy up oil revenues is ultimately settled; what the provincial powers are and boundaries; the relationship between the Kurds and the central government; the relationship between the Shia and the Kurds; are they incorporating effectively Sunnis, Sons of Iraq into the structure of the armed forces in a way that's equitable and just. Those are all issues that have not been settled the way they need to be settled." The president insisted that "we've provided sufficient time for them to get that work done," but that "we've got to keep the pressure up, not just on the military side, but on the diplomatic and development sides, as well."

UNDER THE RADAR

JUSTICE -- FLASHBACK: OBAMA SAID HE WOULD LOOK FOR NEW JUSTICE WHO HAD 'EMPATHY', 'LIFE EXPERIENCE': Last night, NPR announced that Justice David Souter intends to step down from the Supreme Court, leaving an opening for President Obama to fill. In November 2007, when asked what kind of person he would look for in a potential Supreme Court nominee, Obama replied that he would look for someone who understands that "part of the role of the court is that it is going to protect people who may be vulnerable in the political process, the outsider, the minority, those who are vulnerable, those who don't have a lot of clout." He added that he would look beyond judges to find others "who have life experience and they understand what it means to be on the outside." Earlier he had said he would seek someone "who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like" to be an outsider or a minority. At the time, he received widespread scorn from the right for such sentiments. "He believes in justices that have empathy," Sen. John Kyl (R-AZ) scoffed last year, warning just three days after Obama's election "that he would filibuster U.S. Supreme Court appointments if those nominees were too liberal." Potential candidates for Obama's nomination include Elena Kagan, whom he recently named as Solicitor General, Sonia Sotomayor, a New York federal appeals judge, Diane Wood of the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals, and former Dean of Stanford Law school Kathleen Sullivan.  

TORTURE -- ABU GHRAIB SOLDIERS SAY TORTURE MEMOS PROVE BUSH ADMINISTRATION MADE THEM SCAPEGOATS: When photos surfaced in 2004 from the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq showing the disturbing abuse of detainees, officials in the Bush administration scrambled to portray "Army Pvt. Charles A. Graner Jr. as the ringleader of a few low-ranking 'bad apples.'" The recent release of Justice Department memos detailing interrogation techniques, however, has caused Graner, who remains jailed at Fort Leavenworth, KS, and the other convicted soldiers to believe that the Bush administration sought to make them "scapegoats for policies approved at high levels." Policies such as the use of dogs, nudity, stress positions, sleep deprivation, and  "walling"-- a technique that resembles the evidence from Abu Ghraib of slamming hooded detainees against a wall -- were all outlined in the Justice Department memos. Indeed, last week the Senate Armed Services Committee declassified a version of its November 2008 report, "Inquiry into the Treatment of Detainees in U.S. Custody," which concluded, "The abuses of detainees at Abu Ghraib in late 2003 was not simply the result of a few soldiers acting on their own." "Rumsfeld's December 2, 2002 authorization of aggressive interrogation techniques and subsequent interrogation policies and plans approved by senior military and civilian officials conveyed the message that physical pressures and degradation were appropriate treatment for detainees in U.S. custody," the report said. As former Army Reserve general Janis L. Karpinski said, "Here, in living color, you have a photographic rendition of your memos. Is that what they wanted it to look like? Guess what, that is what it looks like." Currently, Graner is appealing his ten year sentence to the Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces. 

ECONOMY -- BANKING LOBBY SUCCESSFULLY DEFEATS MORTGAGE CRAM-DOWN PROVISION: Yesterday, a proposal to change bankruptcy law and allow bankruptcy judges to cram-down (or rewrite) mortgage payments for troubled homeowners failed in the Senate by a vote of 45-51. The provision, which was introduced as an amendment by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), required 60 votes to pass. In recent weeks, support for the measure evaporated in the face of furious lobbying by the banking and mortgage industries. Prior to the vote, Durbin -- who this week said that bankers "are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill" -- took to the Senate floor to decry the banking industry's influence in the cram-down debate. "At some point the senators in this chamber will decide the bankers shouldn't write the agenda for the United States Senate," said Durbin. "At some point the people in this chamber will decide the people we represent are not the folks working in the big banks, but the folks struggling to make a living and struggling to keep a decent home." Indeed, the Mortgage Bankers Association was "in a celebratory mood" at its annual meeting this week, because "a massive lobbying campaign" against cram-down bankruptcy provision appeared to be working.


THINK FAST

Yesterday, detainee Ali Saleh Kahlah al-Marri pleaded guilty to conspiracy to provide material support to Al Qaeda, after having denied the charges for the six years while he was held in isolation in a naval brig off of South Carolina. His plea "reflects what we can achieve when we have faith in our criminal justice system," Attorney General Eric Holder said.

President Obama blamed "a small group of speculators" for forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy. "A group of investment firms and hedge funds decided to hold out for the prospect of an unjustified taxpayer-funded bailout," Obama said yesterday.

SEIU has "asked CNN and Fox News to pull a health care commercial by the group Conservatives for Patients' Rights, describing it as 'unfit to air.'" The union argued that "the ad should be pulled for overstating the power of a newly established federal board on comparative effectiveness research and misrepresenting the views of the two featured physicians." FactCheck.org said that the ad was "misleading."

"The number of terrorist attacks around the world fell by 18 percent last year but rose dramatically in Pakistan, growing in frequency and lethality," according to a new State Department report on terrorism worldwide. Terror attacks also rose in Afghanistan while falling sharply in Iraq. Additionally, the number of suicide bombings declined worldwide, despite the increases in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In a new report, the United Nations "is calling on Israel to freeze all pending demolition orders against Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem," a move that reflects "growing international concern over developments in the contested city." Israelis demolish Palestinian-owned structures claiming they lack permit, while Palestinians "say Israel limits construction to push them out of East Jerusalem."

The Obama administration "is determined to continue withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq on schedule, despite a surge of violence in two Iraqi cities that shows no signs of abating." "We are not even talking about" changing the withdrawal plan, an administration official said. "[T]here's little more that the United States can do to help the Iraqis end their political, ethnic and sectarian feuds." 

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Democratic senators the Obama administration would not be requesting more bank bailout funds any time soon. "I asked him if they'd need more TARP funding and he said, 'No time soon,'" said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND).

Yesterday, the House passed legislation "putting new reins on the credit card industry," which would prohibit "double-cycle billing and retroactive rate hikes and would prevent companies from giving credit cards to anyone under 18." The Senate is expected to consider the bill "as early as next week."

And finally: Queens can't just walk into the White House. Yesterday, Queen Noor of Jordan waited outside the White House's northwest gate to get clearance from Secret Service to enter. "The queen -- who presented a Jordanian passport to the Secret Service -- stood before the guard gate for several minutes spelling her name for the agents. 'It could be under Queen Noor,' she told the agent, spelling 'N-O-O-R.'"


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GOOD NEWS

Maine's state Senate approved a bill that would allow gay couples to marry starting later this year. The measure has "broad support" in the state House and Gov. John Baldacci "has said he is keeping an open mind."

STATE WATCH

NORTH CAROLINA: State Health Plan administrators "did not inform legislators for at least four months last year about multimillion-dollar financial problems."

OHIO: Local officials are waiting for Congress's commitment to restoring the Great Lakes' ecosystem.

TEXAS: The state House is debating which pre-historic reptile will become the new official state dinosaur.

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JULIAN SANCHEZ: Right-wingers are lying about Office of Information an Regulatory Affairs appointee Cass Sunstein.

DAILY GRILL

"They tried the regular [interrogation] techniques first. ...They didn't work."
-- Bill Kristol, 4/30/09, arguing in support of torture on Fox News

VERSUS

"[T]he CIA appears not to have tried traditional tactics for much time, if at all."
-- The Washington Post, 4/26/09


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