NATIONAL SECURITY GOP's Test START Despite Tuesday's elections, the work of the 111th Congress is far from over. Chief among the urgent tasks that must be completed before the end of the year is the ratification of the New START treaty. President Obama stated yesterday in a meeting with his cabinet that the START treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) "is something that traditionally has received strong bipartisan support. ... This is not a traditionally Democratic or Republican issue, but rather an issue of American national security and I'm hopeful we can get that done before we leave." The New START Treaty poses the first real test of the seriousness of the GOP as a governing party. The treaty contains modest reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear arms and importantly updates and extends the verification and monitoring measures of the original START treaty, which helped maintain nuclear stability since the end of the Cold War. Thus far, the New START treaty has been one of the few areas where bipartisanship has largely prevailed. The treaty received significant bipartisan support in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee vote in September, and the treaty is supported by a who's who of Republican foreign policy figures. It looks as though there are the 67 votes needed to ratify the treaty in the upcoming Senate lame duck session. But despite the entire U.S. military top brass insisting that the treaty is needed now, the question remains whether the Republican leadership in the Senate will insist on being the party of no and block the treaty.
CLOCK'S TICKING: 335 days have passed since the original START treaty expired last December. Since that time, on-the-ground inspections of Russia's nuclear arsenal have stopped. Now, U.S. inspectors are sitting idle; others are simply leaving the field taking their experience and expertise with them. Meanwhile, the U.S. military's understanding of the make-up of Russia's nuclear forces is eroding. This is dangerous and poses a severe potential threat to nuclear stability. Ironically, some Republicans have attacked the treaty, because they don't trust the Russians, but without the new treaty, the U.S. will be forced to just blindly trust Russia in regards to its nuclear arsenal. The New START treaty would fix this verification gap , as it updates and extends the verification and monitoring measures that were negotiated by Ronald Reagan. Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell stated, "This treaty is absolutely critical to the effectiveness of our nuclear arsenal, our knowledge of Russian nuclear capabilities and U.S. national security overall. ... We're advancing it at this time and pushing for ratification because we need this. And we need it sooner, rather than later." If the New START treaty is not ratified by the end of the year, the entire ratification process would have to start from scratch, needlessly preventing the resumption of inspections of Russian nuclear sites for months, and even prompting concern about the treaty's ultimate ratification.
VOTES ARE THERE: Following the election, there have been multiple media reports speculating that the outcome of the election means trouble for New START. But in reality, the election changes almost nothing. The composition of the Senate remains virtually unchanged for the lame duck session. The only change is that instead of 59, there are now 58 Democrats and Independents in the Senate for the lame duck (due to the election of Republican Senator-elect Mark Kirk in Illinois, which will take immediate effect). For START to be ratified, it needs 67 votes. That means nine Republicans must vote ratify the treaty. While that seems impossible in the present political climate, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee vote in September START received the votes of three conservative Republicans: Bob Corker (R-TN), Johnny Isakson (R-GA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN). Six more Republicans are now needed to ratify the treaty. But with the support of the four moderate Senators from New England, retiring Senators George Voinovich (R-OH) and Bob Bennett (R-UT), and potentially a number of other more moderate Senators, such as Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Lindsey Graham (R-TN), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), there are enough potential Republican votes to ratify the treaty.
TEST OF THE GOP: While there may be enough Republican support to ratify the treaty, the Republican leadership in the Senate could still resort to obstructionist tactics to block the treaty from coming to the floor during the lame duck period. The New START treaty therefore represents a first clear test of the seriousness of the GOP as a governing party. The GOP is still not trusted in its ability to govern, as a recent ABC/Washington Post poll indicated, only 40 percent of the American people trust Republicans with governing the country, compared with 45 percent for Democrats. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) himself admitted yesterday that "voters didn't suddenly fall in love with Republicans." While obstructionism has been the norm in the Senate, following the election the question now becomes whether the GOP is willing to responsibly govern. Rejecting or obstructing START -- a treaty originally negotiated by Ronald Reagan and that is unanimously backed by the U.S. military and has overwhelming bipartisan support from senior foreign policy leaders, including Republican officials like Henry Kissinger, Stephen Hadley, Brent Scowcroft, James Schlessinger, Colin Powell, George Schultz, Sen. John Warner (VA), and James Baker--- would send a clear signal that the GOP is not stepping up to the challenges. John Podesta, the President of the Center for American Progress, explained last night on MSNBC that the START treaty will tell us where the GOP stands : "Will Senator McConnell... get [START] done and go along with [the President]. ... If he says no we are just going to be into obstructionism and the just-say-no-party -- we'll at least know where the Republican leadership stands."  The new unemployment report from the Labor Department released this morning finds 151,000 jobs were added last month , more than economists had predicted. 159,000 jobs were added in the private sector. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.6 percent. Nearly 15 million individuals are unemployed. The Federal Reserve's aggressive action to pump $600 billion into the economy sent stocks soaring yesterday to "their highest level in two years as investors expressed renewed confidence that someone in Washington was finally giving the sluggish recovery a lift.” Conservatives had slammed the Fed's plans to engage in "quantitative easing,” but the Dow responded by jumping nearly 2 percent. Conservative misinformation about the cost of President Obama's upcoming trip to Asia is even further off base than usual, the Wall Street Journal notes, as conservatives from Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) to Matt Drudge and Glenn Beck claim the trip will cost $200 million a day, and that Obama is bringing a fleet of 40 warships with him. The White House says the claims "have no basis in reality." After attacking the U.S. Chamber for soliciting undisclosed contributions to air right-wing partisan attack ads, the Obama administration is now seeking to make amends. This week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner met with Chamber CEO Tom Donahue to discuss economic matters. And Obama is heading to India to meet with the U.S.-India Business Council, which solicits foreign funding to support the Chamber's activities. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is "seriously considering" running for the position of minority leader in the new Congress, ABC News reports. Most observers expected her to leave the Democratic leadership after Tuesday's electoral defeat, but she is "methodically calling every Democratic House member who won" in an effort to gauge support for a bid. In an interview with 60 Minutes, Obama acknowledged that he hasn't been effective in promoting his economic-rescue message to anxious Americans and that he "stopped paying attention" to the leadership style he displayed during the presidential campaign. Obama said he recognizes now that "leadership is not just legislation," and that "it's a matter of persuading people." Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), who is vying for the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has vowed to call White House energy adviser Carol Browner to testify before the committee. "We have questions, and the American people deserve answers," he writes at Human Events. Incoming House Republicans are leaning on federal regulators to weaken the reforms in the recently passed financial regulatory reform bill. Likely House Financial Services chairman Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) said he wants to block the "radical leftist approach" of regulators. And finally: Hours after President Obama "jokingly suggested at Wednesday's day-after-election press conference that he might hold a 'Slurpee Summit' with the new Republican leadership," 7-Eleven swung into overdrive to capitalize on his statement . Today, the convenience store chain "will place an ad in national newspapers that plays off the idea of Slurpees bringing people together ." "This is a rare opportunity for a brand," says Margaret Chabris, a spokeswoman for 7-Eleven. ThinkProgress is hiring! Details here. |
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 "I think this is a real signal to the world not to assume that the United States is a weak, timid country, not to assume we're going to tolerate bad economic policies."
-- Newt Gingrich on the election, 11/03/10
VERSUS
"The rest of the world, including Asia, is looking at the United States and seeing no real effective policy measures in bringing the economy back on track. That is making the U.S. lose its legitimacy in the global economic community as a leader in terms of providing solutions."
-- Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board, 11/04/10
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