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2011/05/09

The Perilous Politics Of Ending Medicare

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THE PROGRESS  REPORT
May 9, 2011

by Faiz Shakir, Benjamin Armbruster, Zaid Jilani, Alex Seitz-Wald, Tanya Somanader, Travis Waldron, and Igor Volsky


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BUDGET

The Perilous Politics Of Ending Medicare

On Wednesday, the Washington Post suggested that, despite voting to overwhelmingly approve Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-WI) budget just last month, Republicans may have seen the political writing on the wall and are now slowly backing away from one of the plan's most unpopular provisions: transforming Medicare from a guaranteed benefit into a "premium support" voucher for future retirees. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) still  promised that Republicans would "press for all the provisions in the Ryan proposal" in their negotiations with Democrats and insisted that "the starting point is the Ryan budget." But he also hinted that the party could be open to taking the Medicare changes off the table. "Cantor said negotiators could avoid the 'big three,'" which Democrats have vowed to defend, by focusing on changes in other areas. "If we can come to some agreement [and] act to effect those savings now, this year, it will yield a lot of savings in subsequent years," he said. As one GOP strategist put it to the Los Angeles Times, "Why keep pushing something if it's political kryptonite and it's not going anywhere anyway ?" The GOP has attempted to paper over these disagreements, releasing  multiple statements reaffirming their commitment to the GOP budget, but the discomfort among its ranks and the public continues to grow. 

NO HEARINGS:   On Thursday, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI) told reporters that he was not planning on holding any  hearings about Ryan's proposal. "I'm not really interested in just laying down more markers," said Camp, acknowledging that Ryan's plan to give "premium support" vouchers to future Medicare retirees was a non-starter. "I'd rather have the committee working with the Senate and the president, focusing on savings and reforms that can be signed into law." "I don't think we can afford to wait," he added, "I think we needed to make progress now." In the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only Republican senator to openly oppose Ryan's plan, but a growing number of Republicans are also expressing doubts about the program. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) told Talking Points Memo that while he would vote for Ryan's proposal, "there are other proposals that deserve serious consideration and I'm waiting to see what those are and I might vote for those as well," he said. Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) agreed, saying, "There is a discussion of two or three different alternatives being offered...some will be different on Medicare, others will have balance sooner."

RAUCOUS TOWN HALLS:   In the past two weeks, as congressmen went back to hold town halls in their districts,  a major constituent backlash ensued against the Medicare plan and other aspects of the GOP budget. Constituents  booed Ryan for arguing that the tax breaks for the richest Americans should expire. Rep. Daniel Webster (R-FL) faced a barrage of questions from outraged constituents about the GOP plan to privatize Medicare, and Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY) confronted the ire of constituents who were upset about tax dodging by some of the nation's largest corporations. Given this backlash, it's understandable why House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has repeatedly said that he is   not wedded to Ryan's plan and prospective GOP presidential candidates are remaining weary. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has said he would back a slightly more moderate version of Ryan's Medicare proposal, and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is refusing to explicitly endorse the Medicare plan. In fact, the GOP budget may even be pu tting former "Craigslist Congressman" Christopher Lee's (R-NY) seat  in play. GOP candidate Jane Corwin has vigorously defended the Ryan proposal, only to see herself lose ground to Democratic challenger Kathy Hoschul -- a critic of the plan. "Ms. Hochul's message seems to strike a chord in the district, where the race has become much closer than experts in either party had expected," the New York Times reported. "A recent Siena College poll of likely vo ters, for example, indicated that Ms. Corwin and Ms. Hochul are in a tight race. Ms. Corwin leads by only five points, within the poll's margin of error." New polling has found the race has  tightened further. 

PUBLIC OPPOSITION GROWS:   The GOP's effort to present itself as eager to compromise with Democrats represents a change in tone and a departure from how Ryan himself has characterized the budget in town halls across Wisconsin and to national audiences. Speaking to ABC's Christiane Amanpour last week, Ryan said that if Republicans don't push boldly forward with his proposal, they  deserve to be voted out of office. "Look, literally, Christiane, if all we fear about is our political careers, then we have no business having these jobs. If you want to be good at these jobs, you've got to be willing to lose the job." And while Ryan did find a good deal of support at many of his town hall meetings, the Congressman was also routinely challenged by his constituents on his plan to lower tax cuts for the rich and transform Medicare into a "premium support" system in which seniors received a pre-determined sum of dollars to purchase health coverage from private insurers.  Wisconsinites pressed Ryan on why the money used to extend the Bush tax cuts wasn't being applied to the deficit, why their children would not receive the same guaranteed Medicare benefits they've enjoyed, and why the government's "premium support" did not keep up with medical inflation. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that this attitude is reflective of the national mood. "More than twice as many voters oppose efforts to change Medicare than those who favor limiting benefits," the poll found. Even after being told that told that "Medicare, Socia l Security, Medicaid and defense comprise 60 percent of the federal budget,"  70 percent of voters said they were against reducing benefits while just 27 percent supported it.
 


THINK  FAST

A military study has found that the psychological strain on U.S. troops serving in Afghanistan is at a five-year high. The survey reports the lowest morale since 2005, with the most severe mental health strain existing among veterans that have had three or more deployments. "We're an Army that's in uncharted territory here," says Gen. Peter Chiarelli, Army vice chief of staff.

White House National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said Sunday that he has not "seen any evidence at least to date that the political, military, or intelligence leadership of Pakistan knew about Osama bin Laden." Nonetheless, Donilon stressed that the United States would be working with Pakistan to investigate how Bin Laden was able to encamp in a major suburb of Islamabad, Pakistan.

Wall Street leaders will pressure House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) tonight "to provide reassurance that Congress will raise the U.S. debt limit" after his speech to the Economic Club of New York. While Boehner will take credit for "forcing Democrats to the table to negotiate spending cuts," Wall Street wants assurances that "when it comes down to brass tracks they are going to raise that debt ceiling."

"Senate Democrats say they will move forward this week with a plan that would eliminate tax breaks for big oil companies and divert the savings to offset the deficit." "Big Oil certainly doesn't need the collective money of taxpayers in this country," said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ).

Tea Party favorite Rep. Allen West (R-FL) voted against a bill scrapping a small piece of health care reform last week, a surprising break from the GOP's efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act piece by piece. "He questions what the goal is of chipping away like this if it's almost certain that the Senate is not going to take it up," a West spokesperson said.

The Department of Transportation will award 15 states with $2 billion in high-speed rail funding that Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) rejected. Despite his predecessor's approval of the project and a state report indicating "the rail line would be profitable," Scott passed on the $2.4 billion over concerns of being "locked into years of operating subsidies."

In the latest efforts to curb union influence, lawmakers in Missouri and New Hampshire are attempting to advance right-to-work laws through legislatures this year. Right-to-work laws exist in 22 states, and they were proposed in 18 states this year. New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) has promised to veto a right-to-work bill if it passes.

Bahrain's rulers, eager to continue to suppress a pro-democracy movement, have been following a policy of systematically bulldozing mosques frequented by Shiite Muslims. Although the government has "bulldozed dozens of mosques," the "Obama administration has said nothing in public" about the destruction of the country's mosques, some of which are hundreds of years old.

And finally: Golf Digest magazine is hoping to capitalize on two national leaders' love of the sport by organizing a golf match between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) . The publication has even already made about 10,000 Obama-Boehner "Let's Play Golf!" buttons. Boehner told "60 Minutes" last year that he has talked "several times" with the president about playing golf, "It just hasn't happened yet."


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DAILY  GRILL

"We need to reevaluate the foreign aid that we send to countries that do not have America's best interest in mind."
-- Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX), advocating for freezing aid to Pakistan until it proves it didn't know the whereabouts of Bin Laden, 5/3/11

VERSUS

"More terrorists have died -- have died and been captured...on Pakistan soil than any place else in the world. They have been an essential partner of ours in the war against Al Qaida and in our efforts against terrorism. And that really can't be dismissed."
-- National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, defending the US-Pakistani relationship, 5/8/11

 


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