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2011/06/17

Greek Bondholder Blackmail

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Friday June 17, 2011

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Greek Bondholder Blackmail

IMF Lowers Forecasts

Uh-Oh: It's Up to Government

Fellow Investor,

 

Earlier today, French president Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel held a press conference in which Merkel softened her stance on Greek debt restructuring. Both leaders agreed that Greek bondholders must agree to take a haircut on their current bonds, and receive new issues in lieu of cash when they mature.

 

Now, make no mistake: this is essentially blackmail. Bond holders can either agree to new terms, or face the consequences of more serious default.

 

Ultimately, there's not really any good news here. Greece will get some extra time to get austerity measures in place, and then the situation will be reviewed again in a couple years. Greece will be essentially locked out of the bond market (who would buy their bonds of default/restructuring is likely) and utterly dependent on EU loans.

 

If there is any upside to this, it's simply that some uncertainty is lifted from the market.

 

*****The S&P 500 came within 9 points of that string support point at 1,250. Does yesterday's bounce, and today's continuation move mean we're out of the woods?

 

While I'd like to think so, I'm not that na�ve. The fact is, we're at the start of summer, which is always a volatile time. Economic data hasn�t shown much improvement. And investors are unlikely to jump in with both feet ahead of Q2 earnings season.

 

Earnings have remained strong, but there is a limit to how long companies can continue to increase profit margins. We've seen that real revenue growth has been difficult for most companies. The good news from companies is that they've been able to keep earnings moving with increased productivity and sales overseas.

 

Even if profit growth simply stagnates (instead of falling), that, coupled with continued weak economic data, still may be a sign to investors that the risks are to the downside. 

 

*****And speaking of downside, the IMF lowered its growth forecasts for the U.S. and the global economies. The U.S. economy should eke out 2.5% growth this year and 2.7% growth next year.

 

Clearly, that is not enough growth to move the unemployment number by much. And it also implies the non-recovery in the housing market will continue. We also might extrapolate that corporate earnings could flatline or even fall.

 

Again, any upside for earnings will likely come from foreign markets. The global economy is expected to grow at a 4.3% clip. Of course, that number is lower due to weak U.S. and European growth expectations.

 

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*****The growth outlook from the IMF should put a lot of pressure on Congress and the Obama administration. It should be painfully clear that no improvement for unemployment is coming from the economy as it now stands.

 

And worse, unemployed people will be losing their unemployment benefits, entitlement programs may be cut, and we may even see unemployment increase due to proposed austerity. (I am not advocating extending unemployment benefits or making entitlements untouchable, simply pointing out that people may end up with less money in their pockets.) 

 

That means government is going to have to step up and do something to foster economic growth and hiring. Believe me, that doesn't give me much comfort. But all the same, the onus seems squarely on Congress and the Administration to quit bickering and politickin' and get down to business.

 

*****Despite the current risks, Jason Cimpl of TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts' says that stocks are oversold and due for a good bounce. He's recommended several stocks to his readers over the last couple of days. In fact, he's expecting two small U.S. stocks to move 31% and 22% in the next couple of weeks.

 

If you're looking for some quick gains from a stock market bounce, check out  TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts

 

As always, feel free to write me anytime at ianwyatt@wyattresearch.com

 

Have a great weekend,

 

 

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit


 

 

 

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