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2011/06/08

JP Morgan vs. the Fed

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Wyatt Investment ResearchDaily Profit

Wednesday June 8, 2011

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JP Morgan vs. the Fed

What Austerity Means

Oil and OPEC, II

Fellow Investor,

 

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had words yesterday at an International Monetary Conference in Atlanta.

 

Dimon took the mic during the Q&A session and asked the Fed Chief if new banking regulations -- including higher capital requirements -- were restricting growth at banks, and, by extension, the overall economy.

 

Today, Dimon is being applauded by many for challenging the notion that banks should carry more cash to offset lending, be restricted in how they turn loans into securities and have more oversight into their trading activities.

 

Bernanke basically answered Dimon by saying that, in the wake of a financial crisis caused largely by banks, new regulations that change the way banks do business are appropriate, regardless of their impact on banks and the economy.

 

To me, this is a fascinating debate. And it very much resembles the austerity push in Congress.

 

*****Dimon clearly wants to return to the good old days of banking, where banks could borrow cheap and do whatever the heck they want with the money to make more money.

 

He may even have a point that banks are unable to fuel growth for themselves and the economy. But what kind of growth is he talking about?

 

If Dimon is referring to the years between 2004 and 2007, when rising home prices spurred above average economic growth based on credit expansion and consumers basically spending the increase in home values, then I have to say "no thanks."

 

That was a bubble. It wasn't real growth. Dimon seems to have forgotten this.

 

Perhaps there is some middle ground between Bernanke and Dimon. As an American business, banks should be free to make money however they see fit. But at the same time, banks' have already proved that their money-making activities can, and will, cross the line.

 

If it takes slower growth to put the banking system and the economy on firmer footing, then maybe that's the right way to go.

 

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*****Congress is clearly taking that stance in its push for austerity. If government spending falls, it will cost jobs. It may be the right thing to do, but let's not kid ourselves: austerity means slower economic growth.

 

Greece's austerity has caused unemployment to spike to 16%, and it will get worse as the Greek government is forced to cut more spending and privatize utilities.

 

I've asked the question before to Daily Profit readers. And the response was overwhelmingly in favor of austerity, even if it means rising unemployment. But now that Medicare and Medicaid benefits are in the table, I wonder if the opinion has changed.

 

Drop me a line and let me know how you feel about Jamie Dimon questioning bank regulations and how you feel about austerity. I'll publish your responses... ianwyatt@wyattresearch.com

 

*****Who put Iran's oil minister in charge of OPEC? I am sure the Iranians chuckle at the thought of American consumers struggling with high oil prices. I could have predicted that Iran (along with Venezuela) do not want to raise oil production quotas.

 

And while Saudi Arabia's desire to raise production is probably self-serving, in that it needs more money to pay off its citizens (in the form of increased public spending) for keeping the peace, the net result would be good for the U.S. economy.

 

Apparently, oil ministers from OPEC countries stormed out of today's meeting in Vienna after they failed to reach a consensus on production quotas. Good, I say. There is far too much influence in OPEC from anti-America countries like Iran and Venezuela.  

 

I would expect Saudi Arabia to raise its own production, regardless of OPEC consensus.

 

*****Last week, TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts  members took a nice 30% gain on Accelr8 Technology (AMEX:AXK). You can discover short term trading opportunities with the Top 10 Trades for June special report. You can get your copy HERE

 

Until tomorrow,

 

 

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit


 

 

 

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