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2011/08/02

Austerity and the Economy


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Tuesday August 2, 2011

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Debt Deal Passed


Austerity and the Economy


Keep an Eye on the Fed




Fellow Investor,

The debt deal in Congress is as good as passed. And yet stocks sold off hard yesterday. And today isn't shaping up to be much better. The reason, in my opinion, has to do with government spending cuts, austerity and what that means for economic growth.

Yesterday, I asked the question "where will new demand come from?" And I recently received a reader question that hits the same theme...

Simon P asked:

You keep making comments about government spending reductions detrimentally affecting the economy on various levels. Would you please expand on this some in a future newsletter. I am inclined to disagree but am trying to keep an open mind. Without a tempered and relatively detailed explanation of your thoughts in this regard, it becomes difficult to distinguish it from what many of us see as the stupid, blind, fear-mongering rhetoric we hear not only from the White House, but also most of the media.

Well, clearly, with high unemployment, consumer demand and spending is lower as people have less money in their pocket. A recent editorial from The New York Times columnist David Leonhardt says this about job cuts due to reduced spending (austerity) at the state and local level:

In round numbers, state and local governments have cut about a half million jobs over the last two years. If they had continued to hire at their previous pace - expanding as the population expanded - they would have added about a half million jobs.

He even provided a nice chart to show us the difference:
 


It's logical that government would cut jobs, or hire less, as it cuts spending. Anecdotal evidence bears this out. Some other interesting statistics from the NonFarm Payroll report from July 8: the "labor force participation rate", or the number of adults working or looking for work, is 64.1%, the lowest level since 1983... [continue reading at WyattResearch.com]

 


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Market Snapshot

US Markets - August 1 Close

Dow Jones

12,132.49

-10.75

(-0.09%)

S&P 500

1,286.94

-5.34

(-0.41%)

Nasdaq

2,744.61

-11.77

(-0.43%)

Currencies

EUR/USD

1.424

-0.013

(-0.908%)

USD/JPY

77.235

-0.15

(-0.194%)

GBP/USD

1.627

-0.004

(-0.251%)


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