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2011/08/31

S&P, You've Got To Be Kidding


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Wednesday August 31, 2011

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S&P, You've Got To Be Kidding


Good News from... Europe?


Jason Cimpl's Hurricane Trade




Fellow Investor,

Oh Standard & Poor's, you've got to be kidding. Apparently the ratings agency is still giving Triple-A ratings to securities backed by subprime loans.

"S&P is poised to provide AAA grades to 59 percent of Springleaf Mortgage Loan Trust 2011-1, a set of bonds tied to $497 million lent to homeowners with below-average credit scores and almost no equity in their properties," Bloomberg reports.

S&P seems to have forgotten that these mortgage-backed securities defaulted to the point that it nearly brought the world's financial system down. Of course, banks held too many of them, and had leveraged them too much, but S&P was complicit.

But, I guess when you're getting paid -- approximately $1.67 billion in bond rating fees last year -- anything goes.

If there was any doubt that S&P had ulterior motives when it downgraded the U.S., this news should remove them. Whatever credibility S&P had should now be completely undermined.

And by the way, the parent company for Standard & Poor's is McGraw-Hill, ticker symbol MHP on the New York Stock Exchange. I can't say for sure the stock is headed lower, but earnings estimates have not been lowered, and I have no idea why anyone would pay S&P for a rating that's essentially worthless.

I've already offered up my thoughts on consumer confidence polls. It's my experience that consumer confidence correlates poorly to consumer spending. But there was an interesting data point in the dismal August consumer confidence report.

Apparently, those polled said they thought inflation would run at 5.8% for the next 12 months. And research shows that consumers have had pretty unrealistic inflation expectations for the last few years...
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$14 Trillion in Debt and a 9% Unemployment Rate

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Market Snapshot

US Markets - August 30 Close

Dow Jones

11,559.95

+20.70

(+0.18%)

S&P 500

1,212.92

+2.84

(+0.23%)

Nasdaq

2,576.11

+14.0

(+0.55%)

Currencies

EUR/USD

1441

-0.003

(-0.209%)

USD/JPY

76.775

+0.04

(+0.052%)

GBP/USD

1.632

+0.001

(+0.077%)


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