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2011/08/10

What the Fed Said


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Tuesday August 9, 2011

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What the Fed Said


Monetary vs. Fiscal Demand


Is a Jobs Bill Coming?




Fellow Investor,

We certainly live in interesting times.

Today, I'm wondering if the market was worried that the Fed would announce QE3 at the yesterday's conclusion of the most recent FOMC meeting. I mean, how else do we explain the 429 point ramp job the Dow Industrials put in?

It may not have been a majority, but there were a significant number of economists who were expecting the Fed to announce the next phase of quantitative easing, or QE3, yesterday.

It didn't happen.

Instead, Bennie and the Feds (as TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl likes to call them) promised to keep interest rates at zero until mid-2013. Really. Isn't that simply confirming what we already knew?

Does anyone out there believe that both housing and employment will pick up to the point that the Fed has to raise rates anytime soon?

The Fed could have said 2014 and it wouldn't have made a difference. This is about as low-risk a move as the Fed could have made.

Seriously, what does the Fed risk by saying lending will come with no interest for another 22 months? All it really means that the Fed won't make any money from lending for the next two years. I'm having a hard time seeing that as a disaster.

There's potential for low rates to impact the relative value of the U.S. dollar, but even here, that will depend on how other currencies perform. Like the euro. And heck, there might not even be a euro in 2 years...


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Market Snapshot

US Markets - August 9 Close

Dow Jones

11,239.77

-243

(-2.16%)

S&P 500

1,171.53

-23.28

(-1.99%)

Nasdaq

2,482.52

-57.04

(-2.30%)

Currencies

EUR/USD

1.423

-0.017

(-1.163%)

USD/JPY

76.435

-0.81

(-1.049%)

GBP/USD

1.617

-0.016

(-0.954%)


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