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2011/09/07

The 'No Bailout' Clause


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Wednesday September 7, 2011

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The "No Bailout" Clause


Perma-Bear Wants Stimulus


The Mortgage Pinata




Fellow Investor,

The Lisbon Treaty was signed by EU member nations in 2007, as a sort of make-up treaty to correct some of the mistakes from previous EU treaties. Turns out, there's a "no bailout" clause in the Lisbon Treaty. Who knew?

And by the time you read this edition of the Daily Profit, Germany's Constitutional Court will have voted as to whether the EU's bailout fund for Greece et al violates Germany's democratic constitution.

This constitutionality question adds a new twist to the EU bailout issues because Germany is the only healthy European with enough loot to fund the bailouts of Spain, Portugal and Italy. It's easy to see that, in a sense, Germany is being held hostage by its EU mates, and that Germany's own democratic process is being subverted by the will of the indebted nations, and even the nations who may not be insolvent now, but might become so if Greece, or Italy, or Spain defaults.

German leaders Merkel and Wulff are not in an enviable position.

It's been estimated that the EU bailout fund, the EFSF, needs nearly $1.5 trillion to effectively handle all of Europe's sovereign debt problems. Many believe that Germany will not foot the bill.

Italy has to rollover 62 billion euro by the end of September and 170 billion euro by the end of the year. Who's going to buy the bonds to keep the Italian government solvent? Only the ECB. And as The Telegraph asks: can the ECB continue to buy Italian (and Spanish and Greek) bonds if Germany declares such action unconstitutional?

Inquiring minds want to know.

The potential threat to German democracy is also the reason that Germany's Angela Merkel has denounced the idea of a euro-bond, backed by all the countries in the EU. Clearly, such a move would make Germany directly financially responsible for the actions of other EU members. That's about as anti-democratic as you can get.

What's the consequence of Germany's refusal to bankroll the EU anymore? It could mean dissolution of the Union, which UBS estimates would cost the indebted countries 40%-50% of GDP - in the first year alone...
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Market Snapshot

US Markets - Sept 6 Close

Dow Jones

11,139.30

-100.96

(-0.90%)

S&P 500

1,165.24

-8.73

(-0.74%)

Nasdaq

2,473.83

-6.50

(-0.26%)

Currencies

EUR/USD

1.4034

+0.003

(+0.197%)

USD/JPY

77.315

-0.20

(0.258%)

GBP/USD

1.595

-0.001

(-0.005%)


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