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2011/10/24

The Earnings Rally


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Monday October 24, 2011

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The Earnings Rally


Beating Lower Estimates


The Latest Default Plan




Fellow Investor,

Even though third quarter earnings were revised lower, companies are beating and investors like it.

Case in point: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) was expected to earn $1.54 a share after it warned that the quarter would be weaker back in August. But this morning, Caterpillar posted $1.71 a share and raised its guidance for the rest of the year.

We can assume that the weaker earnings, along with weaker growth was priced in when earnings season kicked off.

In fact, the rally started before earnings season kicked off with Alcoa (NYSE:AA) on October 11. The bottom hit on October 3, and the S&P pushed up to resistance at 1,200 on October 10. Friday, the S&P 500 took out the 1,225 resistance level.

The 1,250 area poses more significant resistance, and it won't be a surprise if there is a pullback in the coming week. But still, stocks are acting like they want to break higher.

It's worth asking what could push prices higher, and conversely, what the threats are. For more upside, I'd say we just have to keep bad news at bay. China needs to hold steady, as does U.S. economic data.

Economists are already suggesting that 3Q GDP growth was better than expected, perhaps as strong as 2.5%. Again, Caterpillar and others are giving anecdotal evidence that growth has improved. And recent economic data is putting a number behind it, like last week's Philadelphia manufacturing survey, which came in much better than expected.

Now, 2.5% is not exactly strong growth, but it sure beats the 0.9% we got for the first half.

Also, as much as I hate to say it...
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Previous Issues of Daily Profit



The Risk of Not Doing Enough


Apple Misses Earnings Estimates'


Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn's Favorite 'Short-Sell'

For more issues click here »



 


Market Snapshot

U.S. Markets - Oct 21 Close

Dow Jones

11,808.79

+267

(+2.31%)

S&P 500

1,238.25

+22.86

(+1.88%)

Nasdaq

2,637.46

+38.84

(+1.49%)

 
 


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