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2011/10/25

Is the Housing Market Improving?


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Tuesday October 25, 2011

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Banks Lead, Again


Is the Housing Market Improving?


The Game Plan




Fellow Investor,

Another rally led by the banks. Citi (NYSE:C) was up 4% on better than average volume after an analysts raised his earnings estimates for the bank for 2012 and 2013.

Why?

Because last week, Citi said it would keep its retail credit card partner business. This business allows other companies to issue cards with their logo on it. And it's very profitable, adding $2.2 billion in pre-tax profits so far this year.

Of course, there's always a counter-point. This business is also risky, as it exposes Citi to higher default rates that accompany retail credit cards.

Still, the move for financial stocks was widespread, and I have to suspect that the rally is related to the government's latest mortgage relief initiative that will allow homeowner's to refinance underwater loans. There's no principal reduction, but even supporting refi's at the current rate can put several hundred extra dollars in people's pockets.

It's easy to see how extra cash will help credit card companies. And overall, this is a very good move.

I came across an interesting note from Citi yesterday. Apparently, the number of homes listed for sale in September was the lowest it's been since 2005. And over the last 5 years, only 4 months have seen fewer homes for sale than September.

I'm not ready to say the housing market has turned. After all, we know there is still substantial shadow housing inventory. Still, this is a good sign, and another bullish catalyst for stocks.

Are we seeing the death high-flyer Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX)? Maybe not as a company, but as an investment worthy stock, it sure looks that way. Netflix lost 800,000 customers in a quarter. And while the Netflix name carries some goodwill, at the end of the day, it's...
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Market Snapshot

U.S. Markets - Oct 22 Close

Dow Jones

11,913.62

+104.83

(+0.89%)

S&P 500

1,254.19

+15.94

(+1.29%)

Nasdaq

2,699.44

61.98

(+2.35%)

 


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