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2011/12/24

Farewell Euro Tour Revisited

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The Daily Reckoning | Saturday, December 24, 2011

  • And the "most clicked on" Daily Reckoning of 2011 was...
  • Readers weigh in on the destiny of demography, state ineptitude and more,
  • Plus, all the past week's reckonings...to be consumed with the appropriate amount of homemade eggnog...
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Farewell Euro Tour Revisited
Joel Bowman
Joel Bowman
Checking in today from Buenos Aires, Argentina...

“Bankrupt entities tend to go bankrupt,” observed Eric Fry earlier this year, adding, “Greece will default...eventually.”

Mr. Fry dispensed this nugget of wisdom while on a tour of Europe...a tour that would later become known as the “Farewell Euro Tour.” Eric’s three part video series of the same name earned him a few moments in the YouTube spotlight, the kind of fame all serial uploaders aspire to.

The final installment of Eric’s “man-on-the-street” trilogy actually became the “most clicked on” Daily Reckoning column of the year. It serves as this weekend’s feature column and the third in our Daily Reckoning Best of 2011 Series. Please enjoy, below...

[The final stop on Eric’s “Farewell Euro Tour” first appeared in these pages — and on YouTube — on November 4, 2011]
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The Daily Reckoning Presents
A Final Stop on the Farewell Euro Tour
Eric Fry
Eric Fry
Today’s issue of The Daily Reckoning features the third and final installment of the “Farewell Euro Tour” — a collection of on-the- street conversations with ordinary folks in Europe about the Greek crisis, and about what this crisis portends for the euro zone. The tour began in the Netherlands, then moved south to Switzerland and then to Italy.

Generally speaking, support for “saving Greece” was lukewarm. That said; the “bailout-receiving” folks of Southern Europe were noticeably more enthusiastic about saving Greece than the “bailout- financing” folks of Northern Europe.

The Dutch, for example, expressed some exasperation with the process and felt that they had already contributed more than enough of their taxpayer euros to the Greeks and to the other PIIGS nations. Furthermore, the Dutch also expressed a strong preference for their old national currency: the guilder. The Germans and French voiced a similar sentiment.

Notwithstanding the simmering discontent of many Northern Europeans, the public voice of Europe remains unified in support of the Greek/euro rescue. As the G-20 nations conclude their meeting in Cannes, France, a bevy of European leaders are reiterating their support of the “rescue plan.”

But one thing is clear, the larger the cost of the rescue plan grows — and the longer no visible benefits materialize — the faster public discontent will grow. To repeat, based on our interviews, popular support for rescuing Greece is already very shaky...and it appears to be growing shakier by the day.

As we observed a few weeks ago (immediately after concluding our man-on-the-street interviews in Europe), “The EU’s bailout schemes seemed to have captured the minds of Europe (like a hostage), but very few hearts. Resignation is the dominant emotion, not resolve.”

So please pull up a chair and enjoy the third and final installment of the “Farewell Euro Tour.”

Farewell Euro - Screen Grab

Regards,

Eric J. Fry,
for The Daily Reckoning

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This is the last in a series. We began by wondering how come some people get to boss other people around. We’re not talking about wives and husbands or employees and their employers. In those cases, the bossing is legit. Husbands ask for it. And employees can walk off the job anytime they like.


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GlobalPost is an online news organization dedicated to the idea of “ground truth.” It’s a simple concept. Say you have a satellite image. And then you send a person there to verify it. The latter is ground truth. It is a person on the ground, making a firsthand observation. GlobalPost has adopted this concept as its mission. GlobalPost expects its correspondents to live in the countries they write about. Co-founder Charles Sennott put together a correspondent’s field guide with key points he expects his writers to live by. No. 1 on the list is simple: “Be there.”


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The Weekly Endnote...

And now, it’s over to a few readers for some thoughts, ideas and rumors...

First up, this one from Reckoner “TheSkeptic,” in response to Eric’s Farewell Euro Tour video, above...

The EU was founded based on the needs of the past, not the future. In the past, Germany and France were both powerful countries, and the possibility of warfare and violence between the two was great.

But time has changed the situation beyond recognition. Germany and France are two non-dynamic countries with dying populations.

Both peoples fail to reproduce.

Their populations are shrinking and they will become increasingly increasingly irrelevant on the international stage. They are sick and dying countries...sick with a lack of confidence and pride, and dying because they don’t even breed at replacement levels. In fact, in two hundred years, France won’t probably be even French anymore. It will be Algerian-Nigerian-Moroccan-Chinese-Haitian- etc, with an evaporating tiny minority of native french people.

Most of Europe is in the same boat; they are sick and dying populations. Demographics is destiny, and Europeans are doomed to be a tiny percentage of the world population. In this context, one can see how silly it is to “expect” some significant violence between France and Germany, with OR without a European Union. The need for a European Union to prevent war between France and Germany was after world war one, not now. After WWI, both countries still had decent reproduction levels, and both were relatively dynamic and confident in their histories and abilities.

Having a “European Union” now to prevent an intra-European war today and in the future is like having twenty security guards to prevent two hundred-year-old arthritic boxers from “getting violent”.

Neither Germany nor France will be a “threat” to anyone for the foreseeable future. The EU is not necessary in the least. The EU has outlived its usefulness. It wasn’t useful to begin with.

And this, from Reckoner Bruce, in response to Bill’s “Power Corrupts” article...

The single common trait of government is ineptitude. Thus, try as they may, there isn’t a chance that the full thrust of the United State’s misguided policies will prevail. In the end, their half-measures will not only fail, but will actually provoke precisely the behavior they condemn.

If you look through history, there is an undeniable self-correcting mechanism at work that, as BB used to say, insures people get what they deserve and not necessarily what they expect. This principle is not less true of governments than it is of the individual investor.

To which Reckoner “Sherlock Holmes Lives” dutifully replied...

Bruce, Since 1945 the Insiders have overthrown or interfered with 50 popularly elected governments and or popular movements against dictatorships, killing up to 10,000,000 people (mostly innocent) and making enemies of what, a few billion others? And most of the nation cheers them on. We are dealing with the masters of propaganda.

So while we wait for the self correction to take effect, there might be a bit more unpleasantness to endure.

---

As always, we welcome your thoughts. Email them to the address below and...

..enjoy your weekend.

Cheers,

Joel Bowman
Managing Editor
The Daily Reckoning

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Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com
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The Daily Reckoning: Now in its 11th year, The Daily Reckoning is the flagship e-letter of Baltimore-based financial research firm and publishing group Agora Financial, a subsidiary of Agora Inc. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Published daily in six countries and three languages, each issue delivers a feature-length article by a senior member of our team and a guest essay from one of many leading thinkers and nationally acclaimed columnists.
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