| The Daily Reckoning | Tuesday, May 29, 2012 | - Memorial Day: Mourning the death of the Old Republic,
- “Too good to be true” technologies that are, in fact, very true,
- Plus, Bill Bonner on the feds feeling up nuns, radiating grandmothers and plenty more...
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| | | The Burden of Productivity | US Unemployment and the Ubiquitous “Zombie Job” Market | | | Bill Bonner | Reckoning today from Baltimore, Maryland... Yesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war...after all, we have a heart! But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war — WWII in Europe — that the US didn’t have to get involved in either. “And then there was Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...and hundreds of sleazy assassinations, tawdry meddles and rank ops. They all increased the reach and power of the military-led empire...but the price was paid by the Old Republic, which is now almost extinct.” Mr. Obama can start a war with whomever he pleases...no vote of the people’s elected representatives needed (as if that would make any difference). Frankly, we never much cared for the empire. We liked the Old Republic, as it was meant to be. So, we didn’t festoon our house with red, white and blue, celebrating the success of the US empire, this Memorial Day. Instead, we hung black crepe...and mourned the loss of America. And what’s this...? A headline that caught our eye: 100 Million Americans Without Jobs... Business Insider reports: The national unemployment rate gets lots of attention, and lately more attention has been paid to the workforce participation rate since more Americans have given up looking for a job, but we can also see that an astounding 100 million Americans don’t have jobs... According to the April jobs report, the number of jobless American stood at 100.9 million. | Let’s see...that’s about one in three Americans actually working. And how many of them have productive jobs? It depends on what you mean. Do you mean jobs that actually increase the supply of goods and services that make up our real wealth? If so, you have to take out all the people who are doing zombie jobs... You may be thinking of people working for the government...paper pushers whose contribution to national prosperity is marginal, or even negative. What about all the TSA agents who are feeling up nuns and radiating grandmothers? And what about people who work for the zombie industries — like “Government Motors”...funded by the feds...or Solyndra, which got a $535 million loan, guaranteed by the feds...or the Bank of America, kept in business by Fed bailouts...or any one of dozens of companies whose revenues come almost entirely from the feds? Do any of them add to the nation’s wealth? Net? Probably not. So, out of a population of 311,000,000 how many are carrying the load? Maybe 50 million. One in 6. The rest are zombies. Or retired. In school. Disabled. Or just goofing off. Land of the free? RIP. More, below...
| | | Patrick Cox’s Technology Profits Confidential Presents... | New breakthrough fuel could power your car It took the earth 300 million years to make the oil we burn. Imagine if we could squeeze that whole process into just a few months... a few weeks... or even a few days. Because that’s exactly what could be happening. At least a half-dozen labs and companies are working on this, right now. If they get it right, we could literally “make” as much gas for your car as you need. We could make fuel for planes, trains, and diesel trucks this way too. Find out more by clicking here.
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| The Daily Reckoning Presents | Live Long and Prosper — Nutraceutically | | | Patrick Cox | More and more frequently, I’m finding “too good to be true” technologies that are, in fact, very true. It is, I think, the hallmark of our era. Things we thought were impossible are coming to pass on a regular basis. To prosper, we’ll all have to re-examine practically everything we thought we could take for granted. I realize that the economic situation created by our feckless ruling class tends to cast a cold pallor on the world. It is depressing, I admit, but it will pass. The real story going on behind the scenes is that an unbelievable number of technological breakthroughs are emerging. These are not hypothetical breakthroughs. They have already occurred, but are not yet fully deployed. They will, in turn, drive astonishing progress and growth, as well as enormous wealth for those with the vision to help it along through investments. One company I have recommended to the subscribers of the Breakthrough Technology Alert has created a synthesized form of a natural alkaloid that I believe will extend healthy lifespans. I also believe that equity in the company that makes this product could yield truly transformational returns. However, and I admit this is a big “however,” this technology is in the very early stages. This company is so disruptive, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the industries it will disrupt will try to discredit or stop the product. There is, however, something about this product which inspired in me a particular degree of skepticism and caution. I assume, therefore, that it may provoke the same skepticism in you. Specifically, this company’s product is a “nutraceutical.” Nutraceuticals are foods or food-derived products that are meant to provide health benefits. They may function exactly like substances that are FDA-approved pharmaceuticals, but they are not categorized as such. For example, you may take or sell the extract of willow bark for use as an anti-inflammatory, anti-clotting agent or pain killer without getting FDA approval. You can’t make medical claims about willow bark extract, or the active ingredient salicylic acid, however. Current government policy in the US and many other countries is to reserve that right for products that have passed extremely lengthy and expensive approval procedures. If you synthesize a very similar compound, acetylsalicylic acid or aspirin, you have a drug. With regulatory approval, you can therefore make certain kinds of claims regarding its efficacy in the prevention of heart attacks or strokes. There is very little difference in the actual function of the two products, though. Because nutraceuticals are not subject to testing requirements and regulations, they are much easier to bring to market. In some instances, impure and even dangerous nutraceuticals have been widely sold. The FDA can force a product off the market if it is found to be harmful, but the agency does not have legal authority to require clinical testing. As a result, there have been some major problems in this area. You may recall when beta-carotene, derived from plants such as tomatoes, was widely heralded as a panacea. Books were written claiming it would cure cancer and extend life spans. Despite the lack of blinded studies, untold millions were spent on beta-carotene supplements. Finally, when beta-carotene supplementation was tested clinically, the claims were discredited. Some clinical results showed that the nutraceutical actually increased cancer risk. We’ve seen this cycle play out many times. Fans of a product swear it is improving their health but eventually stop taking it... often just as another supplement fad arrives. The people who claim medical benefits are absolutely sincere, however. This makes it very difficult to judge anecdotal testimonials regarding nutraceuticals. On the other hand, there are incredibly important and effective nutraceuticals. Omega-3 fatty acids, in both the fish oil extract and the purified synthesized form, are linked by real data to improved health. The nutraceutical form of vitamin D is also an important supplement with clinically verified health benefits. But clearly, we are in the Wild Wild West of investing when we venture into nutraceutical territory. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though. The same dynamics that make this area volatile and unpredictable can also lead to enormous profits. I’m telling you all this because I want you to know why I was so skeptical about this company’s main product and why I’ve gone to extra lengths to verify the story and the people involved. In short, I am no longer skeptical. I’m convinced that this is one of the most important breakthrough technologies of our time. I believe this company has a product that actually does what other supplements only wished they could do — it controls chronic low- level inflammation. That effect may not sound very important. But it is actually revolutionary. The name of the neural circuit that regulates the immune response to injury and invasion is the “inflammatory reflex.” Inflammation is an extremely complex mechanism that involves the destruction through apoptosis of damaged cells, the healing of salvageable cells and the growth of entirely new cells. The primary role of this important biological response is to heal injury or infection. In fact, in the “olden days” before penicillin, being thrown from a horse, kicked by a cow or bitten by any kind of animal was a serious potentially life-ending matter. The only way to survive a nearly inevitable sequence of injuries throughout a lifetime was to possess a strong inflammatory immune response. If individuals didn’t have the ability to mount a powerful inflammatory response, they were unlikely to live long enough to pass on their DNA. But there is also a downside to the “inflammatory reflex.” In the last decade or so, it has become increasingly clear that inflammation plays a major complicating role in almost all diseases. In fact, inflammation increases the rate of aging itself and leads to various pathologies. This is why your dentist lectures you about flossing. Inflammation from unhealthy gums increases the odds of getting heart disease and even Alzheimer’s. Even with perfect gums, however, chronic inflammation increases as you age. Eventually, it creates a problem serious enough to trigger a cascade effect. Uncontrolled inflammation causes the simultaneous healing and destruction of cells. This can lead to cancers, heart attacks, lupus, IBS, macular degeneration, stroke, obesity, ED, allergies, psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, endometriosis, rheumatoid arthritis, hair loss, diseases of the organs such as the thyroid and liver as well as...well, you name it. The general public learned about this for the first time in a 2004 Time magazine cover story titled “The Fire Within.” Today, scientists have advanced the science much further. Many are now using the term “inflammaging,” coined by Claudio Franceschi, professor of immunology at the University of Bologna. It appears, in fact, that our immune systems react to the normal effects of aging as if they were injuries. This initiates inflammation, an immune response. This inflammation causes cellular stress, which increases the degree of chronic inflammation — which causes even more damage. It is, by definition, an auto-immune disorder. Some scientists call it auto[innate]immunity subclinical syndrome. It is a vicious circle, a chronic cycle that spins faster and faster until the organism itself eventually fails. Aging, we now know, is not linear. Like so many other things, it is an exponential process that accelerates over time. If there were a way to stop chronic low-level inflammation, however, we could put the brakes on the auto-immune inflammation cycle. If we could stop chronic low-level inflammation, our bodies could heal naturally, just as they did before inflammaging kicked in. We would even see cells damaged by past inflammation-related diseases heal normally. Clearly, the potential market for such a “miracle drug” is enormous...and that’s why I am excited about the company that makes this product. But we are still in the early days of this story, which is probably why the company’s stock has not yet “run away.” Several subscribers have asked me recently why the company’s stock does not yet reflect the reality of its technologies. I sort of take for granted that people understand these things, but apparently, I should not. First of all, the vast majority of investors simply aren’t equipped to understand the science behind the product. Most investors get their information from bulletin boards and financial websites often filled with contradictory and fallacious claims. Second, we have seen a great deal of seemingly organized efforts to knock down the company’s stock price. Part of this may be driven by short sellers. Nevertheless, those of us who have used this nutraceutical and have examined the science behind it know that this is a world-changing technology. Furthermore, even though we cannot yet prove it, we also believe that certain neutraceuticals can be very good for your financial health! Regards, Patrick Cox, for The Daily Reckoning P.S. Inspired by the disruptive potential of this technology — and the company behind it — my publishers at Agora Financial asked me to put together a special report, detailing my findings. (As you probably know, they’re a skeptical bunch...which is a good thing.) So I fired off the report and, I don’t mind telling you, it created quite a buzz around the office. You can access my findings (either in video format of transcript) for yourself by simply clicking here. I must mention, however, that I will be forced to remove this presentation tomorrow night. I sincerely hope you have time to view it before then. Again, here’s the link.
| | | And now over to Bill Bonner who has the rest of today’s reckoning from Baltimore, Maryland... | | | Bill Bonner | Darn! Day after day, the Dow is headed down. Finally, on Thursday of last week, stocks caught a break. The end of a long losing streak. But then...on Friday...down again, with a 74 point loss for the Dow. Gold lost money too. Oil closed right on the $90 mark. What’s going on? The Wall Street Journal reports: New signs of a global slowdown are darkening the economic outlook. On Thursday, the US reported that businesses were slowing their orders of computers, aircraft, machinery and other long-lasting goods. Measures of business sentiment in Europe slipped, and reports from purchasing managers at manufacturers around the globe turned down. Among them, China, the world’s second-largest economy, registered its seventh straight drop in an important manufacturing index. A slew of data this week suggests that the global economy is slowing down. With the latest reports, a new economic threat is emerging: That activity is slowing in sync around the globe and not just in a few markets with their own isolated problems. Europe, struggling with the risk of a Greek pullout from the euro area and broader fiscal problems, is the epicenter of global economic concerns right now. But reports of economic trouble are turning up in China, India, South Africa, Brazil and elsewhere. When the global economy is performing well, synchronized growth reinforces itself and spreads prosperity wide and far. But slowdowns can become interconnected and self-reinforcing, and the global economy has been plagued by them since the financial crisis of 2008. | A synchronized worldwide slowdown? Bummer! But hey, dear reader, would you reach out and pat us on the back? In 1999, we said the tech bubble was going to pop. We made fun of the techies. And guess what? We were right. Tech blew up...and never came back. Okay...okay...we were wrong about some things. We called Amazon the “River of No Returns.” Well...Amazon has done quite well. But where’s Global Crossing? And Pets.com? Boo.com? GeoCities? All dead and gone. We urged dear readers to buy gold, not stocks. If they had done that they would be way ahead. Stocks went nowhere for the next 10 years. Gold went up 5 times. Dear readers who got all golded up would have dodged the housing bubble, too. Sell your expensive house, we urged dear readers in 2005 and 2006...and rent! That turned out to be good advice, as the bubble blew up in 2007 and has been in tatters ever since. When the recession of ’09 hit, economists and pundits wondered what shape the recovery would be. V? or W? We said it would be an L. Down...then dragging across the floor for a very long time. A real recovery was “impossible,” we said, choosing our words recklessly...but correctly. It was impossible for a debt-soaked economy to recover until the debt had been squeezed out, we said. Well, here we are, 5 years after the crisis hit, and we’re still at the bottom of the L. Debt is still being wrung out of the private sector...while the feds pour it on the public sector as fast as they can. Right again! The economy bumps along the bottom...with persistent high unemployment, record low bond yields, and “growth” that is more a product of government gas than real, honest GDP building. So, what are we going to be wrong about? Here’s our hunch: that the bottom of this L stretches out for a long, long time. Maybe 10 more years. Maybe 20. Maybe 100. We’ve got a whole theory to back this up. But since we’re just back from a long weekend we’ll save it for tomorrow! Regards, Bill Bonner, for The Daily Reckoning ---------------------------------------- Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com
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