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2012/07/30

Gail, Monday NAS -12.78 Gold -0.22 S&P -0.67 DOW -2.65 CRB +2.94 USD +0.097

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E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes+


The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to light profit taking on Monday
as it consolidated some of the rally off last Wednesday's low. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the
rally off last Wednesday's low, the reaction high crossing at 2658.00 is the
next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 2516.75 would
confirm that a trend change has taken place while opening the door for sideways
to lower prices near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
2658.00. Second resistance is the May 4th gap crossing at 2686.50. First
support is the reaction low crossing near 2516.50. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 2503.50.


The September S&P 500 index closed slightly lower on Monday as it
consolidated some of the rally off June's low but remains above the previous
reaction high crossing at 1375.70. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September
extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 1395.50 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1321.30 would confirm
an end to this summer's rally while opening the door for a larger-degree
decline into early August. First resistance is today's high crossing at
1387.30. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1395.50. First support is
last Wednesday's low crossing at 1321.30. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 1320.00.


The Dow closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally
off June's low but remains above the 75% retracement level of the May-June
decline crossing at 13,014. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening on Tuesday. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, the
87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 13,177 it the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,804 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 13,128. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
May-June decline crossing at 13,177. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 12,804. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 12,521.

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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest


September T-bonds closed up 1-01/32's at 151-02.


September T-bonds closed sharply higher due to short covering on Monday but
remains below both this year's uptrend line crossing at 151-11. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If September extends last Friday's decline, the 25%
retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 148-20 is the next
downside target. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted
territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last
Wednesday's high crossing at 153-11. First support is last Friday's low
crossing at 149-08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the
March-July rally crossing at 148-20.



ENERGY MARKETS


September crude oil closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's
low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.28 is the
next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 86.84 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a
larger-degree decline into early August. First resistance is this month's high
crossing at 93.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this
year's decline crossing at 94.28. First support is last Wednesday's low
crossing at 86.84. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.05.


September heating oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last
week's short covering rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 281.26 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08. Second
resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at
312.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 281.26. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 270.38.


September unleaded gas closed higher on Monday as it extends the rebound off
last Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 288.72 is the next
upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 265.51 are needed
to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 288.72. Second
resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at
299.72. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 265.51. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 259.39.


September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it renews the rally
off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the
rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline
crossing at 3.352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 2.945 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.231. Second resistance
is the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 3.352. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.044. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2.945.



CURRENCIES


The September Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
consolidated some of the decline off last Tuesday's high. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the decline off this month's high, the 38% retracement level
of the April-July rally crossing at 82.25 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.30 would temper the near-term
bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
83.30. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 84.24. First support
is last Friday's low crossing at 82.40. Second support is the 38% retracement
level of the April-July rally crossing at 82.25.


The September Euro closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the
rally off last week's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's
rally, the reaction high crossing at 127.03 is the next upside target. If
September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 118.74 is the
next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
123.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.03. First
support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 120.51. Second support is monthly
support crossing at 118.74.


The September British Pound closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high
crossing at 1.5773 would confirm an upside breakout of this summer's trading
range while opening the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level
of the April-June decline crossing at 1.5891. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1.5588 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is June's high crossing at 1.5773. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.5891. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5588. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 1.5390.


The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last
week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .10588 is the next upside target.
If September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at .9939 is
the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
.10324. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at crossing at .10588.
First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .10040. Second support is
monthly support crossing at .9939.


The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the
rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement
level of the April-June decline crossing at 100.14 is the next upside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 99.76. Second resistance is the
75% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 100.14. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 97.40. Second support is June's uptrend
line crossing near 97.21.


The September Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Monday as
it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at .12672 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If September extends this month's rally, June's high crossing
at .12895 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at .12839. Second resistance is June's high crossing at .12895. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .12672. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at .12514.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals


October gold closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally and is
testing the upper boundary of a three-month old trading range, which crosses at
1626.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the
reaction high crossing at 1626.90 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of
the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1594.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1626.90. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 1644.00. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1594.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1550.00.


September silver closed higher on Monday while extending this month's
trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 29.915 is
the next upside target. If September renews this month's decline, June's low
crossing at 26.105 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 29.135. Second resistance is June's high crossing at
29.915. First support is June's low crossing at 26.105. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 24.689.


September copper closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might
be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.23
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this
month's decline, June's low crossing at 325.00 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.23. Second
resistance is this month's high crossing at 355.65. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 326.50. Second support is June's low crossing at
325.00.



FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food


September coffee close higher due to short covering on Monday but remains
below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If
September extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.08 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
18.09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the rally
off June's low, April's high crossing at 19.55 is the next upside target.


September cocoa closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's
low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's rally, July's
high crossing at 23.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 22.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.


October sugar closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's
decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week's decline, the 50%
retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 21.62 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.16 would temper
the near-term bearish outlook.


October cotton closed lower on Monday while extending this month's trading
range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. October needs to close above
75.00 or below 65.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of June's trading range
and point the direction of the next trending move.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains


December Corn closed up 20 3/4-cents at 8.14.


December corn closed higher on Monday thereby renewing this summer's rally
following this weekend's disappointing rain event across the Midwest. Storms
over the weekend brought only scattered relief to dry fields, just as another
round of heat begins to cook up across the Midwest. Today's breakout above
psychological resistance crossing at 8.00 has opening the door into uncharted
territory and at the same time triggered renewed buying interest due to
expectation for declining yield prospects. This afternoon's Crop Progress
report showed further deterioration in conditions, with the percentage rated
good to excellent down by 2%. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Now that December is trading into
uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last
Tuesday's low crossing at 7.45 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.17 3/4. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.49 1/2. Second support is
last Tuesday's low crossing at 7.45 1/2.


December wheat closed up 16-cents at 9.27 1/4.


December wheat closed higher on Monday as it extended the short covering
rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.78
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for
additional weakness into early August. If December renews the rally off June's
low, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second resistance is the
May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.16 1/4.


December Kansas City Wheat closed up 11-cents at 9.37 1/2.


December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday and the mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If December renews this summer's rally, the May-2011 high crossing
at 9.78 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.88 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.54. Second resistance is the
May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.88 1/4. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 8.75
3/4.


December Minneapolis wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 9.85 3/4.


December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday as
it consolidates some of the decline off last Monday's high. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins to
trade. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
If December renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 10.70 3/4
is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at
10.34. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10 70 3/4. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.57 1/4. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 8.99 1/4.


SOYBEAN COMPLEX


November soybeans closed up 41 3/4-cents at 16.43 1/2.


November soybeans gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extended last
Friday's rally. Disappointing weekend rains along with this week's weather
forecast calling for above normal temps along with below normal precipitation
underpinned today's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. This afternoon's
crop conditions report showed a 2% decline in the good to excellent categories
for this year's soybean crop. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
November renews this summer's rally, psychological resistance crossing at 17.00
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.69 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the
door for a possible decline to this summer's uptrend line crossing near 15.10.
First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 16.91 1/2. Second resistance
is psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 15.69 3/4. Second support is this summer's uptrend
line crossing near 15.10.


December soybean meal closed up $17.70 at $494.50.


December soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it rebounds off the 20-day
moving average crossing at 462.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's rally
into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 462.30 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 509.80.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 462.30. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 433.00.


December soybean oil closed up 57-pts. at 53.38.


December soybean closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it
rebounds off the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at
52.31. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible
near-term. If December extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing
at 51.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 54.21 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.21. Second resistance is
this month's high crossing at 56.00. First support is last Wednesday's low
crossing at 52.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.36.



LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock


August hogs closed down $0.65 at $94.55.


August hogs closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates
some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August
extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of the
February-May decline crossing at 98.18 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.10 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 96.25. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at
98.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.10. Second
support is July's low crossing at 89.75.


August cattle closed up $0.05 at 119.65.


August cattle closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends the rally off
this month's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at
120.55 is the next upside target. If August renews this month's decline,
April's low crossing at 114.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 120.25. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 120.55. First support is July's low crossing at 115.45. Second
support is April's low crossing at 114.70.


August feeder cattle closed up $0.50 at $138.25.


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday while extending the trading
range of the past two weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.21
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews this
summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 132.66 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.21.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-July decline
crossing at 143.99. First support is July's low crossing at 133.10. Second
support is weekly support crossing at 132.66.



____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

BCX.V12 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Oct 2012 43.75 2.75 +6.71
NG.X12 NATURAL GAS Nov 2012 3.370 0.162 +5.05
SM.Z12 SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2012 494.5 17.7 +3.71
S.H13 SOYBEANS Mar 2013 1524.5 45.5 +3.08
YC.U12 CORN (MINI) Sep 2012 820.0 21.5 +2.69
YK.X12 SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2012 1643.50 41.75 +2.61
C.U12 CORN Sep 2012 819.0 20.5 +2.57
RB.Y$$ RBOB GASOLINE Cash 2.9180 0.0638 +2.24
BAC.Y$$ ETHANOL BLENDED GASOLINE US RACK AVG Cash 2.8737 0.0621 +2.21
LH.N13 LEAN HOGS Jul 2013 98.65 2.05 +2.12

LOSERS

BCX.N13 SOYBEANS CRUSH INDEX Jul 2013 44.75 -4.50 -9.14
CSI.Q13 SOYBEAN-CORN PRICE RATIO Aug 2013 2.018 -0.180 -8.91
AA.Y$$ BUTTER-GRADE AA Cash 1647.5 -22.5 -1.34
LB.U12 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Sep 2012 283.8 -2.5 -0.87
FC.K13 FEEDER CATTLE May 2013 151.3 -1.2 -0.79
GH RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX 455.67 -3.53 -0.77
LH.Q12 LEAN HOGS Aug 2012 94.55 -0.65 -0.68
BNA.Y$$ BIODIESEL NATIONAL AVG Cash 4.1346 -0.0170 -0.41
VB RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX 1042.46 -3.57 -0.34
HG.U12 COPPER Sep 2012 3.4160 -0.0100 -0.29

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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

ATPGP ATP OIL & GAS CORP 12.00 6.00 +100.00
SHAW SHAW GROUP 41.53 14.84 +55.60
FRS FRISCHS RESTAURANTS 30.70 4.85 +18.76
NCIT NCI 5.91 0.86 +17.03
JVA COFFEE HOLDING CO 5.750 0.785 +15.81
TRS TRIMAS 21.71 2.52 +13.13
KRSL KREISLER MFG 6.50 0.75 +13.04
GDOT GREEN DOT 10.20 1.14 +12.58
SRPT SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS 9.428 0.968 +11.44
HNU HB NYMEX NG BULL 16.89 1.67 +10.97

LOSERS

PGNX PROGENICS PHARMACEUTICALS 5.37 -5.43 -50.28
SLOU SLOUD 9.0 -5.5 -37.93
LUFK LUFKIN INDUSTRIES 46.68 -12.65 -21.32
TGE TGC INDUSTRIES 7.37 -1.51 -17.00
CBI CHICAGO BRDGE & IRON 34.98 -5.72 -14.05
SLXP SALIX PHARMACEUTICALS 46.25 -6.94 -13.05
AWI ARMSTRONG WORLD INDSTRIES 39.272 -5.858 -12.98
OSG OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING 5.85 -0.74 -11.23
KTEC KEY TECH 8.071 -0.929 -10.32
OCZ OCZ TECH GROUP INC 6.37 -0.71 -10.03
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