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2013/03/25

Cyprus and the Manic Media Bailout

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Trend Playbook
The Rude Awakening Monday, March 23, 2013 | 1030 Hours
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Trend Playbook Icon Cyprus and the Manic Media Bailout
  • News reporting in the age of permanent crisis...
  • The financial media’s twisted carnival ride...
  • Plus: All-time highs in sight
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
Greg Guenthner
Last-minute bailout...

Where have I heard this one before?

Eleventh-hour deals are quickly becoming the norm these days. Cyprus has become the latest member of the just-in-time club, notching a deal late last night in Brussels to grab its $13 billion bank bailout.

The third-smallest eurozone economy didn’t come out squeaky clean, though. There’s still the matter of shuttering its second-largest bank. And anyone with an account larger than 100,000 euro is taking it on the chin.

Of course, these new developments have triggered a huge relief rally for the U.S. markets, which plummeted last week as the Cyprus banking crisis began to unravel.

Wait a just a minute — that’s not what happened at all...

In the real world, the S&P barely budged last week, finishing Friday afternoon down less than a quarter of a percent since the weeklong crisis began. This morning, S&P futures are up four points. That’s it. Four measly points. Hardly worth noting, really. In fact, the reaction to the entire Cyprus situation here in the U.S. has been completely and utterly mundane.

If I could somehow black out your access to charts or any other market information, you probably would have thought that the situation in Cyprus had brought the market to its knees last week. The financial media was all over this one (again) with its manic reporting. Every headline and blog post just one week ago breathlessly predicted doom and turmoil. This morning, they flip the switch to talk of all-time highs again:

Reuters Headline

The financial media has you strapped to some sort of twisted carnival ride, yanking at whatever vulnerable emotion happens to bubble to the surface any given moment. The fiscal cliff reporting just a couple of months ago was no different. Same with sequestration. Now it’s Europe again.

You can’t build a solid investment plan off these sensational headlines. There’s no sense in puking your guts out on the media’s spinning wheel of terror. When you buy and sell based on the crisis du jour, you’ll find nothing but pain and losses...
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Trend Playbook IconRude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
100,000 has become an extremely important number if you happen to save your money in a Cypriot bank. Anyone with an account of less than 100,000 euro will be spared from a levy.
$1,590 buys an ounce of gold this morning. Gold continues to sink after failing to top resistance at $1,615 late last week...
$14.57 buys a share of Dell Inc. stock this morning. The computer maker rose more than 3% early this morning as Carl Icahn has jumped in with a new bid for the company. Meanwhile...
$13.98 buys a share of BlackBerry stock. Shares are almost a buck lower this morning on a Goldman Sachs downgrade.
16 teams remain alive in the NCAA tournament. Florida Gulf Coast University is this year’s Cinderella, becoming the first 15-seed to ever advance to the Sweet 16.
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1Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell
All-time highs are back in the crosshairs for the S&P 500. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the market steadily crept to fresh highs by the end of the day. After all, last week’s orderly consolidation has provided a springboard for the major indexes to leap higher.

A little certainty injected into the markets over the weekend — no matter how trivial it might be — could let the market off its leash. Even if we are in store for another spring correction like we saw last year, stocks are signaling that we will see higher ground before the markets begin to top out. Plan accordingly.

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com ... and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
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1Ignore At Your Own Peril
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