Forget the Predictions...

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The Rude Awakening Monday, March 11, 2013 | 1000 Hours Forget the Predictions... Chopping up the sound bites... Can you trust the prognosticators? Plus: Any updates on gold? Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner Predictions--both good and bad-- are a huge part of the financial landscape. You've heard most of them. After all, they're shouted out, chopped into sound bites, and then repeated ad nauseam in the media's echo chamber almost every single day. But just in case you've forgotten to pay your cable bill since the financial crisis, I've got you covered. Here's a brief history of every major stock market prediction over the past four years: 2009: The market continues to head sharply lower. But this is only the beginning. Even after a huge decline, stocks are set to move lower--much lower. Stay clear of this market. The only thing you'll end up buying is pain and suffering 2010: Ok, the past year and half has been fun. But it's nothing more than a bear market rally. Stocks will drop double-digits before the end of the year. 2011: Forget everything you've heard since the financial crisis. THIS is where things start to get ugly. The Eurozone crisis is only the beginning a downturn that will turn out much worse than what you saw in 2008. 2012: Ok, so we didn't get a correction this year. But it's coming. All this political turmoil will sour the stock market for sure... Seeing a pattern here? They didn't stop leading into the New Year, either. Many pundits and analysts were looking for a sharp drop following the fiscal cliff debacle--"...unless current law is amended before year-end, the stock market has to fall by at least 30%," predicted Donald Luskin just a few months ago... Naturally, this negative sentiment has a trickle-down effect on the investing public. This leads to interesting disconnects. For instance, every time bearish sentiment sneaks higher, new stock market rallies begin to unfold... The predictions aren't going to just disappear. Now that the Dow has notched new highs, you can expect more gloom to bubble to the surface. That's not necessarily a bad thing... If you think of big, negative predictions as contrarian signals, you could end up buying at just the right moments. Disbelief is a powerful emotion that can fuel rallies much longer than most people expect. Now that stocks are posting highs, you can watch these bearish sentiment spikes to find your next buying opportunity. Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses 12,349 is where we find the Nikkei this morning. That's a 0.5% rise from Friday afternoon... $1,576 will buy you an ounce of gold today. It remains stuck between $1,550 - $1,600... $91.77 is where you'll find the price of a barrel of crude today. Texas tea has traded steadily lower since its recent peak at $98 on Feb. 12. 68% of all stocks trading on US exchanges finished last week above their 50-day moving averages. 2 years ago today, a deadly tsunami ripped across Japan's northeastern coast, killing nearly 19,000 people. Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell Here's popular theme I've noticed in my inbox recently: "Can you update your forecast on direction of gold?" Absolutely. In fact, I see some very interesting things happening in gold right now--especially miners. I'll get my thoughts together on the subject for you tomorrow... [Ed. Note: Tell me your thoughts on the markets: rude@agorafinancial.com — If you’re a social networker, follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner] Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must-Read Links Virtually No Other Investment Analyst Can Match His Success -- and You've Probably Never Heard of Him... Until Today! WARNING: You might not know it -- yet -- but Obama's White House and Congressional Republicans just sold you up river... How to Get 33 Branches of the U.S. Government to "Pay" You Rent Additional articles and commentary from The Daily Reckoning on: DR iPhone APP To end The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning and The Rude Awakening, cancel your free subscription here. Please Note: If you unsubscribe from The Rude Awakening, you will also be unsubscribed from The Daily Reckoning. If you are you having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by whitelisting the Daily Reckoning. Copyright 2013 Agora Financial, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. 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