Overcoming Analysis Paralysis

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The Rude Awakening Wednesday, March 13, 2013 | 1000 Hours Overcoming Analysis Paralysis The market everyone loves to hate How you can take action Plus: your rude answers to my big investing question... Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner Your thoughts on this market remind me of the famous Wall Street saying: “Now is always the most difficult time to invest.” You hate stocks — but you’re all-in. You’re skeptical of gold — but all your money is wrapped up in metals and miners. You’re willing to ride this rally until it begins to fizzle — yet you’re on the sidelines with your cash, waiting for the other shoe to drop... As expected, yesterday’s big investing question (What are you buying (or selling) right now?) generated an overwhelming response. And to say that you have some conflicting views on this market would be the understatement of the new century... But that’s alright. In fact, a lot of very smart people don’t know what to do right now. If I picked 10 expert market analysts and locked them in a room, promising food and water once they reached a consensus on this market, they’d all be dead within a week... Look, I understand why this market can paralyze even the clearest thinkers out there. The trend is clearly higher... But stocks aren’t as cheap as many would like them to be. Stocks are at a critical inflection point... But a debt crisis stateside and abroad could squash growth. It’s also easy to paint stocks and Wall Street as the big villain right now. While the Dow has marched higher for four years, your wealth isn’t growing: The market is far from perfect right now. But there is a simple solution that can lead you toward clearer thinking (and action over inaction): reduce you requirements. If you are waiting for economic clarity, the end of geopolitical strife, stair-step growth and perfect valuations, you will wait for an eternity. And when it all lines up for you, the market will top out. Today’s economic realities and the markets are not in lockstep. They never will be. You have to cut through the clutter and indecision by focusing on the big trends if you want to take action in this market. Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses 14,450 was the Dow’s newest record close today. Enough of the “all- time highs” fanfare, please... $1,594 buys an ounce of gold today. Buyers are beginning to gain some control here... 37% of stocks trading on US exchanges ended the day higher yesterday. Yet... 8 straight days of gains are on the books for the Dow Jones Industrial Average $93 buys a barrel of crude this morning, extending its bounce off last week’s lows. Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell As you already know, the results of my buy/sell/’still waiting’ survey are in! What that really means is I have a lot of email to get through. But don’t worry, I’m going to find a very unscientific method for organizing the results. Stay tuned... To kick this thing off right, here are some of the responses you’ve sent to my big question... The ultra-conservative: “I am waiting...I am not in equities. I look at what I think the year will end at to let me know if I want to get in...” The strategic: “I'm always in the market. I just write calls while I wait.” The anxious: “I am about 70% in... very, very nervous right now and thinking about tightening up the stops! Looking for confirmation one way or the other!” And the, uhh... unconventional: “Hookers and blow. Don't judge... it’s better than what the ‘gubmint’ does with our money.” [Ed. Note: Want to chime in? Tell me what you’re up to here: rude@agorafinancial.com — and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner] Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must-Read Links Fiscal “D-Day” set to hit as early as late July or early August of this year The Last Legal Currency Loophole in America Sick of “Big Government”? Here’s a chance to get back what’s yours... 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