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2013/03/15

The Next Computing Revolution is Here

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Trend Playbook
The Rude Awakening Friday, March 15, 2013 | 0930 Hours
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Trend Playbook Icon The Next Computing
Revolution is Here
  • How to become an “early adopter” investor...
  • The raw potential of a new industry...
  • Plus: A quick note regarding new highs...
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
Greg Guenthner
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

That bit of knowledge is courtesy of Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp. He said it back in 1977 — just a few years before the age of personal computers began in earnest.

Now, I’m not trying to give Olsen a hard time by rehashing his blunder. After all, what the hell was anyone supposed to do with a computer in the late 70s? They were much too difficult for the average person to use. They couldn’t even store very much information. One year after Olsen’s comment, Apple released its very first home computer as a kit you had to assemble yourself. These were toys for hobbyists — not mass-market products.

As an investor, you should burn stories like these into your memory. The rise of personal computing minted new wealth for anyone with the foresight to see its potential. Now, we’re witnessing the very early stages of the next big revolution in home computing. It’s in the hands of hobbyists and clubs right now. And it’s still expensive and specialized. But if this technology follows the same trajectory as the PC, there will be one in every home in a little more than 25 years.

I’m talking about 3-D printing...

Neo Mammalian Studios made an excellent infographic that compares the adoption of the PC with a potential timeline for 3-D printer growth. Here’s a simplified version of the trend:

PCs vs 3D Printers

If 3-D printing continues along a similar path, we could see one in every home by 2040. That’s pretty far into the future — and a lot can happen that could speed up or slow down the process.

How will 3-D printing change manufacturing? In the not-so-distant future, will we download designs for everything from car parts to dishes and silverware, and simply make every single product we use all by ourselves? We don’t know yet.

Whatever you do, don’t dismiss 3-D printing as a fad or useless technology. It’s neither.

The publically traded 3-D printing companies are volatile. As with any new technology, there is substantial risk for the long-term investor. But at this point, it is worth making a small bet somewhere within the industry. It’s not about value or profits at this point. Just raw potential...

There are a few opportunities every generation to get behind a massive, life-changing trend. This could be one of them.
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Trend Playbook IconRude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
1,565 is near. All-time highs for the S&P are within reach after the index closed at 1,563.
10 days of Dow gains are in the books as of yesterday afternoon. That’s its longest winning streak in 17 years...
953 is where we find the Russell 2000 small-cap index this morning. It’s outpacing both the Dow and the S&P...
$1,591 can buy you an ounce of gold this morning. Meanwhile...
$28.81 is the price of one ounce of silver.
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1Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell
Another week — and more new highs for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has hogged the spotlight lately. But now, it’s the S&P 500s turn. The broad market index pushed significantly higher into the close yesterday, finishing just two points off its all-time high close recorded in October 2007.

There’s little standing in its way. The record will break today — or barring some consolidation, sometime next week. The media will continue to analyze the move. Some reports will brim with euphoria. Others will quote ominous predictions. There’s a ton of conflicting market information and economic data out there right now, so I doubt opinions will turn unanimous overnight...

Regardless, this market has been (and continues to be) locked in a strong rising uptrend. Continue to follow strength and buy the dips until further notice.

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com... or follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
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1Ignore At Your Own Peril
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