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2013/03/21

You're Doing it Wrong

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Trend Playbook
The Rude Awakening Thursday, March 21, 2013 | 0930 Hours
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Trend Playbook Icon You're Doing it Wrong
  • Bears in a bull market...
  • The perfect time to buy--and other investing myths...
  • Plus: The pullback that never seems to come.
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
Greg Guenthner
"How is anyone supposed to make money in this market with stocks performing so badly last year?"

I was in Orlando in late January at a market technician's meeting. One of the presenters opened up the floor to questions. That's when an older guy busted out that gem.

And he was dead serious.

The collective response in the room was "what is this nut thinking?"

The S&P posted gains of more than 13% in 2012. Stocks were outperforming and this crank was complaining about an uncooperative market.

He's got it all wrong. So do you...

It took me a while--but I finally compiled your responses to my big investing question: What are you doing with your money right now?

I expected to hear from a few nervous investors. But as it turns out, you're much more fearful that I originally thought.

You don't want any part of this market. And if you do own stocks, you're looking for reasons to get out. Despite the market's strong performance, you don't believe there's any money to be made...



Waiting and waiting for that "perfect moment" will have you buying shares at or near the market's peak. A healthy bull market needs to climb a wall of worry. You have it backwards. You're waiting for the worry to disappear. The only problem is that usually marks the top...

It's clear you do not want to buy right now. And if you do have skin in the game, you told me your finger's not far from the trigger. Famed technician Walter Deemer says it best: When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.

You need to heed this advice. It's easy to say, yet hard to put into practice. But don't let that stop you from missing something big. If you don't, you'll end up burned like most investors: sold out when the market's ready to run, and buying right when the rug's about to get yanked out...
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Trend Playbook IconRude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
34 companies have reported earnings so far this week. Half have missed forecasts, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Speaking of which...
1 penny per share below earnings estimates caused shares of Oracle to slump more than 7% early this morning.
64% of the companies trading on US exchanges remain above their 50-day moving averages.
$1,608 buys an ounce of gold today. Gold continues bumping its head on resistance near $1,615.
$61 million in bonuses was just paid out to nine senior Barclays executives less than a year after the bank was fined for manipulating benchmark interest rates, according to Bloomberg.
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1Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell
"Just sitting it out like the 42% waiting for the pullback that never seems to come," writes a frustrated reader. "I try a few short-term trades with some safe stocks and that's it. I wouldn't dare be long at these high prices. Patience is key."

I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that it's not important to exercise some patience in the markets. But you just said it yourself--you've waited for the "pullback that never seems to come" for quite a while...

The truth is that there have been several buyable pullbacks since the market bottomed in 2009. In fact, there were two fairly substantial pullbacks last year alone--one in the spring, and another in the fall.

Your problem is that you didn't see them as pullbacks. Fear kicked in--and you saw a crash brewing. By the time you worked up the courage to consider buying, the market was back to its highs.

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com... and don't forget to follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
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1Ignore At Your Own Peril
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