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2013/05/28

Ron Burgundy

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"Japan"

 
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There has been a lot of action in the Japanese bond and stock markets recently because of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) massive new QE program.  This money is finding its way into other markets, like European bonds, as well as pumping overall equity markets.  The NIKKEI has mounted a staggering rally since this money printing was announced but has stumbled recently due to JGB (bonds) selling by Japanese companies.

 In the following video Kyle Bass explains the “rational investor paradox” that is surprising the BOJ.

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/100762194

 If this were to get out of control, it would negatively affect global markets so it should be watched closely.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear “experts.”

---Larry Levin

 
 
Morning Market Stir
 

Morning Market Stir YouTube Link

In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Senior Market Analyst Alan Knuckman  provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates.


 
 
Student Of The Day
 

Congratulations to Dennis Stanko

It was another successful week of trading for students in the Market Profile Masters Course. On Friday, Patrick called two winning signals in Soybeans. What's better is that students are taking his methods and applying them to their own trading. Dennis Stanko had a successful Crude Oil trade based off of a High Volume Area. Congratulations Dennis!

11:35 am Dennis Stanko: +$450 CL

 
NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial.

 
 
Market Advantage

 
   
OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary
---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr

Another wild day for the Japanese markets!  Off the open, the marked bounced nearly +4% then, the bottom fell out and the broad market index was down 3% on the day.  Another rebound from the lows occurred into the close and shares actually ended up +0.6% on the day.  Germany's Ifo index of business confidence rose to 105.7 in May up from 104.4 last month.  Expectations were for a print of 104.5.  The increase in positivity comes after two successive monthly declines and in the face of the rest of the EU being in recession. 

Today let's focus on leveraging the resources available here at Trading Advantage.  On the education side of the firm, we have eight market veterans with expertise across nearly the whole trading spectrum:  stocks, futures, commodities,forex and options.  We have the ability to tap into these resources to help us generate trade signals.  For example, this morning we know that Charlie Moon called a long in Morgan Stanley (MS) out of his "Beyond Buy and Hold" room.  Based on a Hull Entry, he recommended a long be entered between $23.75 and $24.00.  We identified a bullish trend as well using our methodology and are considering generating a trade signal once we identify the best risk to reward.  It may be a simple as buying some cheap calls in MS.  Have a great Memorial Day weekend!


 
 
 
FOREX: Currency Spotlight
---Ed Moya
 

Minimal price moves occurred yesterday as most markets were closed for Memorial Day and U.K. markets observed the Spring Bank holiday.  Traders over the past few weeks have abandoned the Aussie Dollar trade.  Concerns over a China slowdown, interest rate cut by the RBA and a potential reduction in the pace of asset purchases by the Fed have helped trigger a massive wave of weakness by the Australian currency.

Future hedge funds and institutional traders have jumped on the Aussie short, as 32,409 shorts were confirmed last Tuesday by the COT report.  The prior week’s total was only 13,450. 

This week several key data points on the Australian economy will determine whether or not its currency is able to break below .9550 level.  Tonight we will learn whether or not housing sales continued improved and if construction work remains week. 

Early in Asia, the Australian markets remained higher, but the moves were small and the majority of traders will await the conference board’s consumer confidence and BOJ Governor Kuroda’s comments. 


 
 
STOCKS: Watch List
---Charles Moon
 

After a quick dip in the Dow early in the trading session, we saw a grinding rally take place. The Dow was hovering in between positive and negative territory, only to recover at the end to finish in the green. This is in continuance with the trend of finishing in positive territory on most Friday's of 2013. The S&P 500 finished in negative territory for the 3rd day in a row, as the markets are showing a little fear over the Fed slowly withdrawing the stimulus. This hangover can carry over this week, as the markets are still volatile and swings are prevailing on lighter liquidity. Expect these conditions to continue, but also be prepared for very flat trading sessions also. Traders may stay away until they can gauge the fallout of the recent news.

With a decent pullback in stocks this week, they may present a good opportunity to get in on a short term play. If Lululemon(LULU) can hold $78.00 as a short term support level, you can see a play straight to the 52 week highs. If Prudential(PRU) can find support at $65,.50 here in the short term, then this stock can push to test the 52 week highs also. If the market sells off this week though, it might be hard pressed to test those highs. It would be a bullish outlook if the stocks can withstand aggressive selling off those price points. and catch a nice rebound off those levels. That can help push the bulls to test those highs. Open Position: LVLT, MS, PRU Stocks to Watch: NTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB LVLT CHKP CTXS CSCO BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO

 
 
FUTURES: Technical Data  
 

 

ES 1646.25/1637.25

 POC… 1639.00

 YM 15274/15204

 NQ 2986.75/2972.25
NOTES FROM THE PIT
Click Here To Read

 
 
COMMODITIES: Play of the Day
---Patrick Assalone
 

 Old crop soybeans remain in tight supply, but the market is anticipating rising production ahead.Volume in soybeans yesterday surged more than 50% to 307,139, easily topping the total in corn.


 
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