| | "The Streak" | | |  Everyone loves an iconic winning streak. The ’72-73’ Miami Dolphins’ 17 games in a row; tennis legend Guillermo Vilas’ 46 consecutive matches; Yankee slugger Joe DiMaggio hitting in 56 straight games and Cal Ripken Jr. starting in 2,632 consecutive games. Those streaks all came to an illustrious end. However, there’s a new streak, and this one is still alive. For the 20th Tuesday in a row, The Dow Jones Industrials have closed green. With an average gain of 80 points, since 1/25, the Dow is up an impressive 11% but absent Tuesdays is merely unchanged at +0.2%. This Tuesday saw significantly volatility in stocks though with Nikkei and S&P futures giving up all their gains at one point only to bounce back into the close for a glorious victory. The current streak is the longest Tuesday in history and the second longest ever for any day of the week. The last time Dow Jones even got this far was in 1927 when it closed up for 15 consecutive Tuesdays from June 1927 through September 1927.In 1968, the the Dow rose for 24 straight Wednesdays from June through November. And as much as everyone loves a winning streak, the opposite holds true for the streak breaker. Note to Central Planners...please hold off on any pullback hijinks to Wednesday. Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear “experts.” | | ---Larry Levin |
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Senior Market Analyst Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Matt Iseminger Congratulations to Matt Iseminger who wrapped up his work day by 1:33 pm CST with a winning trade in Crude Oil Futures. Matt, along with the other students in the High Volume Area Masters Classroom, have been taking advantage of watching multiple markets at one time. More markets equals more signals and more potential for profit. Congratulations Matt!
01:33 pm Matt Iseminger: Done for the day 1,250 CL . | | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr | Overnight, Asian stocks were generally higher after experiencing a high degree of volatility thanks to the Japanese markets finally gaining a foothold. The weakening Yen helped support exporters. With no real news out in Europe, those markets rose as well. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has continued to slow leak the news that growth in China may not be as robust as first hoped and expected. He said the country need an annual expansion of 7% to double per capital GDP by 2020. That tempers his mark of 7.5% given last March and well below 2012's figure of 7.8%. The housing sector continue to show pockets of strength. The Case-Shiller Housing Index of 20 major city's housing prices rose 10.9% Y/Y. All 20 cities show gains with Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas leading the pack posting greater than 20% gains. Today a lesson in risk and position management. As we have discussed at length, there are times we construct trades based on direction and also on the mispricing of options across different expirations (calendar spreads), typically based on some sort of event such as an earnings report. We have an earnings play on right now in Copart (CPRT). We are long the May/Jun 35/40 strangle swap. We entered the trade for $0.49. Through our continued analysis and monitoring, we determined that the implied volatility between the Jun and July was approximately 22%. We now see that that ratio has declined slightly (the spread increased in price), but given the long Memorial Day holiday weekend we were able to take advantage of an increased expansion in the spread due to time decay and instead of taking the risk through the earnings report, generated an exit signal this morning. So, sometimes an earnings play, through prudent portfolio management, turns out not an earnings play. | | | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | Currency trading has had its fair share of regulatory changes and the NFA and CFTC have made progress in cleaning up the industry. Yesterday, many insiders to the industry were amazed to find out that it so long to bring up the charges of money laundering to Liberty Reserve. Liberty Reserve is an alleged financial metropolis for money launderers. This company is accused of setting up an internet based currency along with a wide range of crimes including credit card fraud, identity theft, investment fraud, computer hacking and narcotic trafficking to name a few. It has been reported that they did not confirm the identity of its clients or that the funds come their bank account. What comes to a surprise for many is that this company may have been used by some traders to fund their accounts and the repercussions may be terrible. An NFA registered US broker will only accept funds from a U.S. citizen by a wire transfer/check or a credit card. So U.S. traders should be ok since they are required to open an account with a US based firm that’s money laundering rules would not accept a Liberty Reserve deposit. Overseas brokerages may have some leniency on the account opening process and funding depending on their regulatory bodies. Other brokerages outside the US may also accept funds via various other financial entities like paypal and Western Union type businesses. If funds are required to be returned to the same bank account, some traders may have difficulty getting their funds back. The key take away from this is that you should always do your due diligence on your broker. Also, if they are not thorough on their opening account process, they may not be up to code on that and you don’t want to work with a broker that takes shortcuts. |
| | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | | | We had a fast start to the trading day as the Dow raced higher to be up as much as 218 points today. The jump was helped by strong numbers from the S&P/Case Shiller and Consumer Confidence report. After we hit the highs for the day, we saw a slide in the market as it lost half its gains by early afternoon. The market attempted a feeble rally into the close, as the Dow finished at yet another record high. This also marks the 20th straightTuesday we closed in positive territory. Look for this prevailing trend to continue here. Netflix Inc(NFLX) was down over 6% today off a lukewarm viewership to their highly anticipated release of the show 'Arrested Development'. This show has a strong and very loyal following, and it was expected to provide a large viewership on the new series. Unfortunately they also released the new season right before a major holiday. Now they did see an increase in traffic, but not to the level of where they anticipated it to be. I expect the viewership to go up this week, and the same for the stock after its current slide. While I don't fully agree with the price the stock is trading at, I still believe the bulls are in control and will rally the stock price at what they would view as a value price point. This stock has been the biggest gainer so far in 2013, and it still has a bit more room to grow it seems. I don't think the ceiling is that far away, but there is still a chance at decent profit. Look for the aggressive support to possibly get in on a long. Be cautious as this slide may not be over yet. If $200.00 is tested here in the next few days, that might be the price that is aggressively defended by the bulls. If that level doesn't hold, it can trigger another aggressive slide down to $180.00 where it can also be aggressively defended. With no major economic data being reported tomorrow, I expect the action to be light and the same goes for the liquidity. I anticipate that profit taking can come in early on, causing the market to slip a bit. Then I can see aggressive buying coming into play from lunch to early afternoon, as the bulls can jump in on dips for short term profit gains. The market should be pretty flat overall, with a lot of back and forth action. Exercise patience so that you don't get caught up in the seesaw action. Open Position: LVLT, MS, PRU Stocks to Watch: NTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB LVLT CHKP CTXS CSCO BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1669.00 / 1656.50 POC… 1657.50 YM 15479 / 15381 NQ 3030.00 / 3007.50 | |
| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | Volume in soybeans Friday fell by 46% but was still more than corn again at 197,006. Open interest was off 12,326 on moderate fund selling. Friday's CFTC commitments showed speculative hedge funds adding 16,157 contracts to their moderate net long position as of Tuesday, while they were flat the rest of the week. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for potential long entries at 1491.25 |
| |  | | is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results. | | | | | | IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. | | 
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