| | Day 3 | | |  A week ago Tuesday I wrote about the fact that Tuesday #21 did not result in an up day. “Last week the Dow went 20 for 20. To be clear, prior to today, the Dow Jones had closed up for 20 straight Tuesday’s. A few other days (not many though) the market closed lower, but not on any of those Tuesdays. On these days, the average close was nearly +80 points and was responsible for an 11% gain. Without the prior 20 Tuesdays, the Dow was only up +0.2%. Tuesday #21, however, was different. The market *gasp* closed lower.” Was something afoot? It seems like a change is in the air. Something else rather amazing happened today: the market went down for a 3rd straight day. It was the first time that we have seen a 3-day drop all year! Despite the move lower, the S&P500 still has 10 points to go before it reaches 1600.00. And even then, the market will probably find support between 1600.00 and 1590.00 so nobody is panicking yet. If it makes a strong high-volume move below this level, there may be several more “3-day drops” in the future. If the Fed isn’t careful, a free market may break out in this rigged QE levitation machine. Luckily for the market and Benron Bernanke, there is a huge POMO day scheduled for Thursday where the Fed may buy up to $3,500,000,000.00 of securities. Go Blackhawks! Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear “experts.” | | ---Larry Levin |
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Wesley Bickham Congratulations to our Student of the Day Wesley Bickham who made $120 trading crude oil futures. Crude Oil has been an active market with multiple signals being called most trading days. Patrick Assalone has helped countless students understand the nuances of trading this fast moving market and taught them to apply market profile methodology. | | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr | Guess what? Another crazy day for the Japanese equities! The Nikkei was down as much at 2.4% before rebounding into the close to end up down just -0.2%. Japan's core machinery orders fell for the first time in three months falling -8.8% compared to +14.2% in March. This report is a significant leading indicator of capital expenditure and it is showing that corporations are not quite yet on board with PM Abe's economic reforms. There was some good news coming out of the eurozone where industrial production rose 0.4% in April. Although the data is "relatively encouraging," says economist Howard Archer, "the eurozone manufacturing sector is not yet out of the woods." We are often asked by our students, “with all of the thousands of exchanged listed companies out there, how do you identify just a small group of them to generate trade signals on?” There are myriad of filters we can run to identify possible scenarios, but one of the most useful is sector analysis. When you find a sector that is of particular interest to the marketplace you can do one of two things. First, identify the strongest player in that space. For example, last week the networking companies like Juniper, F-Five Networks and NTAP were particularly strong, but the dominant player for the week in terms of price was the dominant player in the sector, Oracle. Often times, what is good for the small players in a sector will be equally as good if not better for the industry leader. Second, identify the company that has not yet experienced the move that the rest of the sector has experienced. If the fundamental news holds for the sector, you can find yourself a nice diamond in the rough. |
| | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | The kiwi sold off after the Reserve Bank emphasized their concerns regarding the unbalanced economic growth in New Zealand and more importantly, that the New Zealand dollar remains “overvalued.” Price action on kiwi dollar immediately sold off around 60 pips to .7930. The current trend regarding annual CPI inflation is expected to increase, but the central bank is likely to delay any rate hikes as the economy struggles and any action may trigger a boost for the kiwi. The downward trend is firmly in place but the key to the next wave down will depend on today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims releases. The “taper” talk has been quiet for a few days, but the kiwi may slowly lose all of its gains this week if we get dollar catalyst that may reflect an improving economy as the U.S. consumer continues to increase its contribution to the economy. |
| | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | | | We saw another wild swing in the market as we raced to the highs very early, only to slide throughout the day to the lows. We had a 260 point range in the Dow and we saw both ends of the spectrum as the Dow was up nearly 120 points early. The Dow finished down over 126 points and there has been a direct correlation with the Yen as far as directional movements. We are experiencing wild swings and it looks to be here for awhile. Whatever short term directional trend has been short lived on both ends, and full retracements of gains or losses are happening. Difficult market conditions to say the least for the average retail investor. This is the first time in 2013 where we had 3 losing sessions in the Dow, further enforcing the fear that has finally crept into the markets. The downside play is now as wide open as the upside play. First Solar INC(FSLR) took a bit of a dive today as it had offered up 8.5 million shares to sell pre-market in a public stock offering. They also have another option for underwriters to sell an additional 1.275 million shares as an over-allotment option. The expected deal should raise 444-511 Million dollars today. Since the stock did not slide on bad news, we should see a nice rebound as short term investors who jumped in will look to take profits on their short trades. Look to pre-market action tomorrow to see if a rebound is present, as this stock can snap higher by 4-5% during tomorrows session if the buyers take control. Tomorrow might be another volatile session as we do have Jobless Claims numbers and Retail Sales numbers coming out early on. This data might not mean much as the market may only focus on what the Nikkei maybe doing here in the short term. Watch for the moves early on and expect a pullback of sorts. Hard to gauge any directional movement, but if we do sell off in the markets, the key level to watch here is the 1600.00 mark in the S&P 500. We had tested this level recently and had a major rejection, but if we break this level without any hint of recovery, then watch out below as we should flush down pretty quickly. Open Position: INTC, ADBE, JBL Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN ADBE FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1630.25 / 1612.75 POC… 1612.00 YM 15157 / 15003 NQ 2961.75 / 2929.25 | |
| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | With both dueling economic forces and a cluster of concentrated
volume, there has been sideways trading action in Crude Oil futures. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking to trade the range between 95.58 and 96.28. Breaking well out of this price range, our methods teach for a potential test of 96.95 on the upside or 95.00 down below. Click here to watch |
| |  | | is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results. | | | | | | IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. | | 
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