| Monday, July 15th, 2013 | | | | | |
 | | | | Gold $1,300: A New Hope | | | - A golden pivot point
- Why $1,300 matters
- Plus: "you can't predict, but you can prepare"
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| | | Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
 | | Greg Guenthner | Gold is quickly approaching the most important potential pivot point it has faced in more than three months.
If it can clear this hurdle, we could see a quick rally and higher prices over the next several weeks. But if it fails, I suspect another test of $1,200 in short order, potentially sending the yellow metal to fresh lows.
I'm not conjuring this vision out of thin air. Gold has been true to its chart since its decline steepened back in April. If you just take a few seconds to analyze the price action, you can see how $1,300 has become the magic number that could trigger a snapback rally.
This chart has two important traits you need to recognize:
First, round numbers clearly matter to gold. $1,350 provided support after the first major push lower back in April. And just a few weeks ago, $1,200 acted as a floor for the yellow metal after another step drop.
Next, check out how the $1,300 level. It's another round number that also happens to coincide with a trendline that has acted as an important area of resistance during gold's decline this year. That makes this an area to watch very carefully -- especially after gold's strong push higher last week.
Last week, gold jumped higher, posting its most impressive run since its post-crash push in April. It's approached $1,300 a couple of times since Thursday, yet turned lower on each attempt. This morning, gold futures are sliding into the red after another go at the $1,290s. If it doesn't snap back toward $1,300 over the next week or two, expect another move lower.
Of course, my bet is on failure at $1,300, bringing us one step closer to my $1,000 target. But I can't let my biases cloud my judgment. Same goes for you…
The one thing that could really work in gold's favor right now is the fact that sentiment is completely in the gutter. It's not a stretch to say that gold and miners are currently the most hated areas of the market right now. With everyone on one side of the fence, a snapback rally could spark an intense rally.
Keep an eye on $1,300 this week. A breakout or breakdown at this price will tell you whether it's time to go long or press your shorts. | | |  | | | | Rude Numbers | Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
| | | | 2,059 | is where you'll find the Shanghai Composite this morning. The Shanghai gained almost 20 points, or close to 1%, to start the week… | | $19.78 | marks the spot for silver futures this morning. The poor man's precious metal is sagging today after retaking $20 late last week… | | 1,672 | is where S&P futures rest just before the bell. The market's looking for a flat open to begin the week… | | 63% | of stocks trading in the U.S. are above their respective 50-day moving average. | | $3.47 | is now the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S, according to AAA. "Retail gasoline has again reversed course, having risen four days in a row as crude oil costs surged and refinery units shut down for repairs," Bloomberg reports. | | | | | | | | Rude Trends | When to Buy... When to Sell
| | | It's time to treat our "all-time highs" whiplash with a dose of common sense…
"Yes, after correcting hard, stocks look bullish again. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Friday," writes Jonas Elmerraji. "That was quick."
"In fact, Jonas continues, "it was about three weeks quicker than I expected in my big-picture look. We can thank the Fed Chairman for speeding up the market cycle this summer. "But that's exactly why we don't use predictions to trade. They only provide context. As Oaktree Capital founder Howard Marks once said, 'You can't predict, but you can prepare... the limits on our foreknowledge needn't doom us to failure as long as we acknowledge them and act accordingly.'" The market's moving now. So what are you waiting for? Not only do you have a chance to trade with Jonas this summer—but you also might learn something…
Sign up for Jonas' 21-day options trading challenge to get all the details on how you can make repeatable, short-term double-digit gains in this market (without being tied to a computer all day).
[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner] | | | | | | | Ignore At Your Own Peril | Today's Must Read Links
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