| | | Life Vest | | | | 
After Thursday's "Flash Freeze" things returned to "normal" Friday with a renewed dedication to sailing the high seas aboard the QE infinity. We learned that the housing recovery is now dead in the water, which is not surprising as the recovery was never quite afloat in the first place. But now even the second housing bubble champions are dejected because in July only 35,000 new houses were sold. Looking at the data per region, the numbers look more depressing considering just 3,000 were sold in the Northeast, and just 19,000 in the otherwise strong South. This translated into a miniscule 394,000 seasonally adjusted annualized sales, missing expectations of 487,000 by 100,000. Not surprising, the June print was revised lower from 479,000 to 455,000 (which back in July beat expectations and was trumpeted as the highest print since 2008 - whoops). Yet one thing that did not change is that the median home sale price decline continued, and in July dropped to. So here's yet another life vest for the market. This is the perfect type of bad news to keep the markets buoyant for a few more weeks as talks of the taper may be temporarily submerged. | | ---Larry Levin | | |
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Jeannette Johnson Congratulations to our student of the day Jeannette Johnson. Capitalizing on both directional and volatility plays, students in the options classroom have enjoyed a profitable week. With winning signals in FB and BIDU options, the options rooms has benefited from Scott and Mike's guidance. Congratulations Jeanette! | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Michael Shorr | | | We have discussed a variety of triggers that we employ on the trading desk at Trading Advantage. We have highlighted mean regression when trading calendar spreads, or using trend lines to define support and resistances, for example. These are all powerful tools, but we never stop refining our techniques and ability to convey this knowledge to our students. We have been in the beta stage of utilizing the Market Profile study in our trading methodology. The Market Profile is an intra-day charting technique having the price on the vertical axis with time/trading activity on the horizontal axis. This will be a very dynamic tool for us to employ in the room. For purposes of implied volatility regression, Market Profile will aid us in identifying key support and resistance points which will in turn identify the appropriate strikes for trades such as strangle swaps. The Market Profile will also identify points of entry and exit for our directional plays. This is yet another example of our never-ending pursuit of trading acumen and its dissemination of that acumen to our students. |
| | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | | | The key takeaway from Jackson Hole was that future Fed policy is up in the air and that European policy makers are fairly split on whether or not a rate cut is needed to help keep the European recovery going in the right direction. Emerging market currencies in the meantime remain vulnerable and under pressure. Ringgit, rupiah and rupee have had significant waves of weakness and momentum traders will eagerly look to jump on this trade when we see U.S. yields climb higher. Early this week the focus may fall on the euro. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny remains optimistic but for the most part, key officials from the southern periphery contend that because of the weak recovery further action will be needed. ECB's Demetriades was the voice supporting a more dovish stance. IMF Leader Christine Lagarde also would not rule out the potential for further cuts. The doldrums of summer will often support the wait and see approach of the markets. The September 18th German elections are also likely to keep a major pause in any key economic policies. With the UK banks on holiday today, limited ranges may hold true for the pound, and the key drivers will resume during the U.S. session. Tomorrow, the key release for the euro will involve German IFO Business Climate. Expectations are for the survey to continue to show strong improvements in the euro-zone's largest economy. The forecast is for the best reading since February at 107.1.
| | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | | | The markets overall were flat for the day, as the Dow rebounded to close up 46 points for the day. The markets are in a tug of war as there is a bit of confusion in the markets. It was also interesting to see the SPX gap open above the key 50 Day Moving Average and find support there all day. The sellers had leaned on this level and was ultimately rejected as the SPX closed higher by 6.5 points for the session. If we have an implied positive open on Monday, we can see a rebound come into play this week. Watch for the swings in the market, as we can be coming out of the summer swoon and more into volatile conditions. If we do get a bounce here this week, keep looking to the 50 Day Moving Average(1659.41) to see what the reaction is. If the markets bounce off this level, then the play will be to the upside. If the SPX keeps treading along this level, then the play can be in either direction. Meaning the markets will be bouncing back and forth daily, and we can see some choppy and range bound conditions. If we do start to swing higher, the moves could happen in fast spurts. Either way, it will be wise to protect our profits and to look shorter term for the time being. Longer term holdings will be tested here by a possible market correction if we swing lower. Otherwise we can progress higher off the knowledge of knowing the Feds timeline on when they plan on initiating tapering(June 2014). I expect things to be a bit range bound until we get a confirmation of a true break out in the markets. Open Position: BIDU, FB Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN BIDU LNKD FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC PRU WFC GS JPM MS NFLX WDC DIS CROX STZ NKE UA LULU CHKP JNPR POT GMCR VZ T HOG MON YUM MCD LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1660.00 / 1655.00 POC… 1657.75 YM 14977 / 14935 NQ 3123.50 / 3116.00 | NOTES FROM THE PIT
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| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | he recent increase in the price of gold, which has climbed by over 14% since dropping to almost $1,200 an ounce in June, is due to a confluence of factors include heavy demand in Asia, turmoil in emerging markets, high-priced U.S. equities and the under-performance of commodities in general. Whatever the cause, we know its in a strong upward trend and that is what matters for our purposes. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for a reversal long signal at 1385.20 or a reversion to the mean entry long (not the first break out) above the contract high established on Fridayabove 1400. Click here to watch video |
| |  | | is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results. | | | | | | IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. | | 
 
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