| | | Sad Clown | | | | 
Nobody likes a sad clown, but how does the market feel about a piss poor jobs report? After the initial knee jerk reaction to the dismal data, the market rebounded on hope that perhaps the cash clowns will keep piling out of the car and the Fed will delay the Taper. What will happen in the Fed circus, one can only guess. What I do know and what I have written about many times before is the specious employment recovery. Friday's report just added fuel to the fire. Of the 169,000 jobs added, the vast majority, some 144,000 or 85% of the entire August gain, consisted of the lowest paying jobs possible including: • 44,000 jobs added in Retail Trade • 43,000 added in Education and Health • 27,000 added in Leisure and Hospitality • 13,000 added in Temp Help services But at least they are full-time "lowest paying jobs" because if there was one silver lining in today's jobs report it is that Full Time jobs added finally surpassed the Part-Time jobs, which actually declined. Elsewhere, for those still confused by the Beige Book's idiotic proclamation that there are construction worker shortages, don't tell the BLS: the number of jobs added in the construction sector was a net zero gain. Obama's heralded "recovery" must be coming from obscure sectors of the labor market, perhaps it's a rise in the number of circus clowns who moonlight as "expert" economists or fed governors. | | ---Larry Levin | | |
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Woody Mummert Congratulations to our student of the day Woody Mummert. Woody has been trading very well in the TAP program and made $1100 on Friday. With two profitable days in a row, Woody is successfully navigating the TAP program. With help from Tino Boccarsi, the students in the TAP program are really benefiting from the group learning style. Congratulations Woody! | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Michael Shorr | | After formulating an opinion on a stock trade set up in very loose terms, how does a trader decide what exact trade to put on? If you have a bullish bias in direction do you buy a call spread or sell a put spread? If you are making an implied vol reversion trade do you play a straight calendar or a straddle or strangle swap? There are a lot of variables that go into these decisions like overall risk appetite, investable capital, overall market conditions, etc. Let's take the example where we are in the process of generating a trade signal in Lululemon (LULU). We have determined from a technical and fundamental basis, we are bullish on the company. Earnings are set to be released on 9/12. We are considering purchasing one of two call calendars. The first one is buying the Oct 75 calls and selling the Sep 77.5 calls. This spread will cost about $1.35 with a maximum modeled profit after earnings of $1.95. The second one is buying the Oct 77.5 calls and selling the Sep 77.5 calls. This spread will cost about $0.60 and has a maximum modeled profitability of $1.10. Even though we stand to make more money in the first scenario, the risk is better in the second. With the second spread, we are investing less than half of the premium. The maximum return of spread one is 144%. The maximum return of spread two is 182%. So, for less initial premium with the same market risk, spread two has a much more favorable expected outcome. | | |
| | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | | | The monthly Employment Report was front and center this morning,and it's release created the usual heated debate and attendant market volatility. Numbers came in a little thin,just under the 180K consensus,and there were some questions about the weak participation rate.All in all,there were no game changing surprises. Market focus will now shift toward the latter part of next week,when US Retail sales,Consumer Confidence and PPI are released on Friday. In the currencies forum,it should be noted that US interest rates continue to climb,breaching the 3% mark for the Ten year briefly.This is gradually making the US Dollar more attractive vis a vis it's European and Japanese counterparts. | | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | With wild swings taking place during Friday's trading session, more questions were left then answers. After initially opening higher at the open off the nonfarm report, the markets swung down quickly to the lows of the day off of news that Russia would still support Syria with arms if the US attacked. Essentially drawing a line in the sand, the markets reacted negatively off the news. From there we climbed to the highs of the day, only to face an aggressive sell off into the close. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 squeaked out gains, the Dow finished down just a shade under 15 points for the day. Seeing the reaction of the markets on Friday, it is showcasing a bit more volatility and volume now. There is still a state of confusion as it seems the markets will be looking to September 16th when the FOMC meeting start. All eyes will be watching the FOMC announcement on the 18th for clues to tapering. With this issue along with worries over Syria continuing to weigh on the markets, look for choppy trading conditions to continue until then. In the SPX on Friday during the afternoon trading session, the highs of the trading day stalled out at the key technical level and pressed down into the close. Seeing that the 50 Day Moving Average is still relevant here, it is a key level to watch this week. If we test this level and resistance is to be found, we can continue to deflect down off this level. If we trade through or gap open above that level, then you should look to see if immediate support is found. If that is the case, then expect the markets to press higher to test the 1675.00 range, which can be the next resistance level to come into play. Expect conditions to sway back and forth in the meantime this week leading into the FOMC announcement. Open Position: FB Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN BIDU LNKD FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC PRU WFC GS JPM MS NFLX WDC DIS CROX STZ NKE UA LULU CHKP JNPR POT GMCR VZ T HOG MON YUM MCD LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1660.25 / 1646.75 POC… 1658.50 YM 14974 / 14824 NQ 3144.50 / 3115.00 | NOTES FROM THE PIT
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| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | Crude-oil prices climbed 2% Friday to a 28-month high amid heightened anxieties over the U.S. and Russian impasse over Syria. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for long signals either as a reversal off of 109.00 or a first reversion above the contract high. However, with all the political uncertainty the market could gap open much higher. Click here to watch video |
| |  | | is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results. | | | | | IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. | | 
 
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