Congress Cries Wolf (Again)

Congress climbed the highest bridge in town, called 911 and threatened to jump. October 16, 2013     Congress Cries Wolf (Again)   "It could be worse…" A Shutdown climax? Plus: Gold's crazy trading week   Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner Congress climbed the highest bridge in town, called 911 and threatened to jump. First responders recognized the voice on the other end of the line, of course. They've called before. Each time, the negotiator has talked these misguided fools off the ledge. Sure, this is probably another cry for attention. But we still have to get the police on the scene. Have the firefighters hold out the big net. It might be a waste of time and resources. But we can't just ignore the problem, right? So here we are. The spectacle will (supposedly) reach its climax today. The media breathlessly reports on every word as traders jockey for position in the markets. As much as I'd like to ignore it all, it's nearly impossible to miss all the flashing lights and sirens… Luckily, we're reminded that it could be worse. A lot worse, in fact. "As a result of the stalemate in Washington, the S&P 500's average daily percentage move has increased since mid-September," reports Bespoke Investment Group. "Looking at the chart below, even after the recent uptick in the average daily move of the S&P 500, it is still less than a third of the day to day volatility that we saw back during the 2011 debt ceiling debate. In fact, it is actually much closer to its lows of the last three years than it is to its highs. It may be raining now, but it is far from pouring." Judging by the market's reactions so far this week, it feels like a debt ceiling resolution failure is not baked into the pie. The default stance is the belief that a last-minute deal will emerge. That might be true. But again, that's no guarantee that the market will snap back to new highs. The news doesn't matter. Investors' reaction to the news is what counts. Now's not the time to go nuts guessing "deal or no deal" with a wild trade. You could get burned either way... If you're looking for a longer-term trade, however, there are a few interesting setups appearing under the market's surface. Financial stocks have quietly pulled themselves out of the gutter over the past week or so. I've even found a regional bank stock I like right now. Stop by the PRO for details…     Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses   $156 buys a Bitcoin today. The crypto currency is on the rise. It's up about $16 since the beginning of the month… $20,000 could buy you high-powered Bitcoin-mining machine. It just might be worth it. At $135 a pop, the electronic currency is worth 10 times what it was just one year ago. 83% of Yahoo's earnings reports have beaten Wall Street expectations since 2009. With Marissa Mayer at the helm, Yahoo's stock has jumped 70% in the last year. 36 days of pain rocked Russia following a debt default. Russia's major stock index plummeted 65% when the country defaulted back in 1998. Hmmm.... 1 day remains before default. It should be an interesting day, to say the least…     Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell   [Ed. Note: You could learn how to triple your money in 48 hours by learning about an urgent energy approval. Get all the details in our very first live briefing Thursday at 6:00 p.m. EDT. Don't forget to reserve your spot right now…] Gold's gone nutty this week… The yellow metal reversed course yesterday, staging a comeback from its lows. Futures sank into the $1,250s before heavy buying stepped in, helping lift the price by about $20. Early this morning, additional buying pressure has helped push gold futures back into the $1,280s… After yesterday's action and today's follow through, gold looks a lot less broken. Of course, anything can happen (especially on a crazy, headline driven morning like this one). But for the very short-term, it looks like the market has found a floor. If you're trading gold futures in either direction, today could be crucial. Keep a close eye on price action and stick to your trading plan. If you're wrong, get out of the way. Don't allow the market to trick you into holding a losing position in such a volatile trade… [Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]     Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must Read Links   If you find any of these coins floating around, you may want to begin saving them... Try the Rude Pro for 30 Days, Without Charge Your Road Map to "Opt out" of Obamacare!     BE SURE TO ADD dr@dailyreckoning.com to your address book.       Additional Articles & Commentary: Join the conversation! 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