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2013/10/03

Past Shutdowns

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Past Shutdowns
 

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It's no surprise that the media is howling about what a government shutdown will mean to the economy.  It's no surprise that the media is pinpointing one group, or family, or even one single person who will be affected.  The media makes it sound as if this has almost never happened before, but as usual, they aren't telling the whole truth.  Moreover, the media recoils in feigned horror at the thought of politicians actually playing politics during this situation.  

Never happened before, right?  Uhh, no – not even close.

The following chart lays out the multiple prior 17 government shutdowns, plus the current one.

History of 18 Government Shutdowns

Year

Start date

End date

Total days

Explanation

1976

September 30

October 11

10

Citing out of control spending, President Gerald Ford vetoed a funding bill for the United States Department of Labor and the United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), leading to a partial government shutdown. On October 1, the Democratic-controlled Congress overrode Ford's veto but it took until October 11 for a continuing resolution ending funding gaps for other parts of government to become law.

1977

September 30

October 13

12

The Democratic-controlled House continued to uphold the ban on using Medicaid dollars to pay for abortions, except in cases where the life of the mother was at stake. Meanwhile, the Democratic-controlled Senate pressed to loosen the ban to allow abortion funding in the case of rape or incest. A funding gap was created when disagreement over the issue between the houses had become tied to funding for the Departments of Labor and HEW, leading to a partial government shutdown. A temporary agreement was made to restore funding through October 31, 1977, allowing more time for Congress to resolve its dispute.

1977

October 31

November 9

8

The earlier temporary funding agreement expired. President Jimmy Carter signed a second funding agreement to allow for more time for negotiation.

1977

November 30

December 9

8

The second temporary funding agreement expired. The House held firm against against the Senate in its effort to ban Medicaid paying for the abortions of victims of statutory rape. A deal was eventually struck which allowed Medicaid to pay for abortions in cases resulting from rape, incest, or in which the mother's health is at risk.

1978

September 30

October 18

18

Deeming them wasteful, President Carter vetoed a public works appropriations bill and a defense bill including funding for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Spending for the Department of HEW was also delayed over additional disputes concerning Medicaid funding for abortion.

1979

September 30

October 12

11

Against the opposition of the Senate, the House pushed for a 5.5 percent pay increase for congress members and senior civil servants. The House also sought to restrict federal spending on abortion only to cases where the mother's life is in danger, while the Senate wanted to maintain funding for abortions in cases of rape and incest.

1981

November 20

November 23

2

President Ronald Reagan pledged that he would veto any spending bill that failed to include at least half of the $8.4 billion in domestic budget cuts that he proposed. Although the Republican controlled Senate passed a bill that met his specifications, the Democratic House insisted on larger cuts to defense than Reagan wanted and for congressional and civil servant pay raises. A compromise bill fell $2 billion short of the cuts Reagan wanted, so Reagan vetoed the bill and shut down the federal government. A temporary bill restored spending through 15 December and gave Congress the time to work out a more lasting deal.

1982

September 30

October 2

1

Congress passed the required spending bills a day late.

1982

December 17

December 21

3

The Democratic controlled House and the Republican controlled Senate wished to fund jobs, but President Reagan vowed to veto any such legislation. The House also opposed plans to fund the MX missile. The shutdown ended after Congress abandoned their jobs plan, but Reagan was forced to yield on funding for both the MX and Pershing II missiles. He also accepted funding for the Legal Services Corporation, which he wanted abolished, in exchange for higher foreign aid to Israel.

1983

November 10

November 14

3

The Democratic controlled House increased education funding, but cut defense and foreign aid spending, which led to a dispute with President Reagan. Eventually, the House reduced their proposed education funding, and also accepted funding for the MX missile. However, the foreign aid and defense cuts remained, and oil and gas leasing was banned in federal wildlife refuges. Abortion was also prohibited for being paid for with government employee health insurance.

1984

September 30

October 3

2

The House wished to link the budget to both a crime-fighting package President Reagan supported and a water projects package he did not. The Senate additionally tied the budget to a civil rights measure designed to overturn Grove City v. Bell. Reagan proposed a compromise where he abandoned his crime package in exchange for Congress dropping theirs. A deal was not struck, and a three-day spending extension was passed instead.

1984

October 3

October 5

1

The three-day spending extension expired, forcing a shutdown. Congress dropped their proposed water and civil rights packages, while President Reagan kept his crime package. Funding for aid to the Nicaraguan Contras was also passed.

1986

October 16

October 18

1

A dispute over multiple issues between the Democratic controlled House and President Reagan and the Republican Senate forced a shutdown. The Democratic controlled House dropped many of their demands in exchange for a vote on their welfare package, and a concession of the sale of then-government-owned Conrail.

1987

December 18

December 20

1

Democrats, who now controlled both the House and the Senate, opposed funding for the Contras, and wanted the Federal Communications Commission to begin reenforcing the "Fairness Doctrine". They yielded on the "Fairness Doctrine" in exchange for non-lethal aid to the Contras.

1990

October 5

October 9

4

President George H.W. Bush vowed to veto any continuing resolution that was not paired with a deficit reduction package, and did so when one reached his desk. The House failed to override his veto before a shutdown occurred. Congress then passed a continuing resolution with a deficit reduction package that Bush signed to end the shutdown.

1995

November 13

November 19

5

In the shutdown of 1995 and 1996 President Bill Clinton vetoed a continuing resolution passed by the Republican-controlled Congress. A deal was reached allowing for 75 percent funding for four weeks, and Clinton agreed to a seven-year timetable for a balanced budget.

1995

December 16

January 6, 1996

21

Subsequently the Republicans demanded President Clinton propose a budget with the seven-year timetable using Congressional Budget Office numbers, rather than Clinton's Office of Management and Budget numbers. However, Clinton refused. Eventually, Congress and Clinton agreed to pass a compromise budget.

2013

October 1

Ongoing

Ongoing

Due to disagreement regarding inclusion of language delaying the Affordable Care Act,[10] the Government has not passed a funding bill. Negotiations have come to a stop and government shutdown is in progress. See also United States federal government shutdown of 2013


I have read that after the prior shutdowns Congress has retroactively paid the furloughed government workers that the media wails about.  I understand that while it is happening it can be an unsettling time but after 17 retro-pay-day catastrophes; doesn't it really become a paid vacation

.

---Larry Levin
 

 
 
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman  provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates.


 
 
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Congratulations to Randall Matheny

Congratulations to our student of the day Randall Matheny who met his daily target in the TAP trader program, making over $300 on the simulator and then finishing trading before 10:00 am. The TAP trader program combines advanced trading education with the opportunity to become a funded trader. Congratulations Randall for great application of the methods!

NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial.

 
 
Market Advantage
 
 

OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary

---Michael Shorr

The period of time going into an earnings report can be interesting on a number of different levels. You have the obvious anticipation of the report and subsequent expanding of the implied volatility calendars which present trade signal opportunities. But, you also have something the market rarely gives us......a degree of certainty. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, there tends to be a distinct pattern as the time to the release of the earnings reports nears. Namely, implied vol will hold steady or even increase.

Take the example of Autodesk (ADSK). ADSK is a design software and services company. The company serves customers in the architecture, engineering and construction; manufacturing, and digital media and entertainment industries. They are set to release their earnings report on November 11th. This morning they issued guidance for the 4th quarter and announced plans to acquire another company (essentially pre-releasing at least part of the report). The stock actually was up on this news. Implied Vol got cratered, yet October vol (not included in the upcoming earnings report) was still above November vol (included in the earnings report). So, we have the opportunity to acquire vega-rich implied vol (November) on the lower end of the trading spectrum while affording us the opportunity to sell a quickly decaying front month (October) with the next set of data points available after the expiration of the October. Lean on past experience with respect to earnings


 
 
FOREX: Currency Spotlight
---Charlie Lewis
 

There is a lively debate brewing among pundits regarding the apparent disconnect between equity and currency markets appreciating,and the imbroglio currently unfolding-albeit slowy-in Washington.Is it priced in or isn't it,etc,etc...

In my view there are two quite different issues in play here: one is the U.S. government shutdown and it's consequences,and a quite different one regarding the October 17 deadline that looms ominously over sovereign default.The former is,again in my opinion,a manageable short term event,whereas the latter October deadline is quite another matter altogether,with almost unimaginable potential for setting off a cascade of negative consequences. We are watching the calendar carefully.

 

 
STOCKS: Watch List
---Charles Moon

 We faced another choppy trading session today, as the major averages bounced back and forth until a slight rally pop right before the close. The markets were focused on the economic data early on, and what the Fed members had to day in the afternoon. Fed member Rosengren said that he believes it is way too early to start tapering,  Fed member Bullard has been giving very hawkish statements. In fact it was him that mentioned how close the voting was at the FOMC meeting, and how tapering could be initiated as early as October.

With conflicting statements and ideologies, this has widely reflected onto the markets. Look for the back and forth action to continue here the next couple of weeks, until something more definitive cones into play. Otherwise we will keep on sliding back and forth in the markets. Open Position: FB Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN BIDU LNKD FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC PRU WFC GS JPM MS  NFLX WDC DIS CROX STZ NKE UA LULU  CHKP JNPR POT GMCR  VZ T HOG MON YUM MCD LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM


 
 
FUTURES: Technical Data  
 

 

ES 1685.25 / 1676.75

POC… 1684.75

YM 15048 / 14996

NQ 3244.50 / 3230.00

NOTES FROM THE PIT

 
 
COMMODITIES: Play of the Day
---Patrick Assalone
 

Crude Oil had a huge run up on Wednesday after TransCanada Crop said the southern leg of its Keystone pipeline is nearly complete and traders believe the construction will help alleviate a glut of supplies at a key U. S storage hub. Based on our educational methodology, we are still looking for short entries despite the up move. We would look for short entries up higher at 104.87 or down below at 103.16 with a downside target of 102.35

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