| November 04, 2013 | | | | | |
 | | | | Passing Up Market Predictions | | | - Why big market guesses are a waste of time
- Where will the S&P land on Dec. 31st?
- Plus: Where are all the Bitcoin believers?
|
| | | Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
 | | Greg Guenthner | If history is any indication, the market is primed and ready for a fourth quarter rally.
"Shares have climbed in the final two months 82 percent of the time since 1928 when the benchmark gauge advanced at least 10 percent through October," Bloomberg reports.
If you plug in the S&P data, you get a mean November and December broad market increase of 6%. That adds up to a year-end of 1,862 for the S&P 500…
Of course, this guess—even with the help of some statistics thrown in the mix— doesn't mean jack to the markets.
But prediction season is upon us. That means all of your favorite prognosticators will soon roll out their guesses for 2014 and beyond.
"With the first full trading week in November on the horizon, prepare to hear a lot of predictions for the New Year," muses Jonas Elmerraji in his weekly trading note. "Every pundit on TV, in print, and on the web is going to try to force their crystal ball – excuse me, I mean 'research' – in your face. But unless it's presented with a contingency (the move that lets you know you're wrong), I'd suggest taking those predictions with a grain of salt."
Jonas' trading approach is a "green light, go" system. He isn't trying to predict when the traffic light is going to turn green – he just hits the gas when it does. That's how you should approach the market every single day. After all, this is the type of calculated strategy that will help you squeeze consistent gains without any unnecessary bias getting in the way.
Shut out the noise and direct your full attention to the big market trends. The S&P remains in an uptrend as we begin a new trading month. I can't tell you where it will land on December 31st. But that doesn't matter. You don't have to make outrageous guesses to book gains this market…
| | |  | | | | Rude Numbers | Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
| | | | 5 million | backers have pledged almost a billion dollars to crowd-funding giant Kickstarter. The site has funded over 50,000 projects with an overall success rate of about 44%. | | 47.6 million | tablets were shipped world-wide in the latest quarter, a 37% jump from last year. Apple's share of the market dropped to 29.6% for the period. | | $40 billion | in cash is sitting in Berkshire Hathaway's coffers, as the company is set to post a $4.3 billion 3Q profit. Warren Buffet aims to invest enough to bring the cash pile down to $20 billion. | | $1,317 | is where you'll find gold futures this morning. After running into resistance at $1,360 last week, gold is up about $2 in early trading today… | | 1,761 | marks the spot for S&P futures this morning. Stocks are looking for a green open to begin the week… | | | | | | | | Rude Trends | When to Buy... When to Sell
| | | "Why do you keep reporting on Bitcoin?" asks a curious reader. "Do you really think this is the currency of the future?"
I have no idea if Bitcoin will become a "legitimate" currency anytime soon-- or ever, for that matter. I'm not even sure if that's the goal of whoever created it. Heck, no one really even knows who got the ball rolling for Bitcoin in the first place…
But that's not the point.
Bitcoin is a radical idea. It's attracting a lot of attention from some pretty smart people. And its price action has been wild and crazy for months. Just this year, the price of a Bitcoin has vaulted from less than $20 to more than $260, back down to $70, then back up above $200 again (one Bitcoin will run you about $228 this morning). If that doesn't get your attention, I don't know what to tell you.
And for the record, I haven't endorsed or recommended Bitcoin once since I started writing about it. It's just too illiquid and volatile for my taste. I'll stick to equities…
That doesn't mean Bitcoin's not worth watching. You shouldn't cash in your 401(k) for Bitcoins. But you shouldn't ignore it, either…
[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
|  | | Watch Out for "Sell the News" Drops | | | We're smack in the middle of the heart of earnings season this week. As of just a few minutes ago, more than 20 companies have reported earnings so far this morning. More than 100 are scheduled to release earnings after the markets close this afternoon…
 | | | | | | | | | Ignore At Your Own Peril | Today's Must Read Links
| | | | | | | | | BE SURE TO ADD dr@dailyreckoning.com to your address book.
| | | | | | | Additional Articles & Commentary:
Join the conversation! Follow us on social media:
| | | | | | | | | |
© 2013 Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. 
No comments:
Post a Comment
Keep a civil tongue.