Nature Climate Change Contents March 2014 Volume 4 Number 3 pp 149-228

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TABLE OF CONTENTS March 2014 Volume 4, Issue 3 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Correction News Feature Interview Research Highlights News and Views Letters Article Erratum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Don't miss these latest articles from the Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology - Air pollution exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies - The factors influencing urinary arsenic excretion and metabolism of workers in steel and iron smelting foundry - Exposure vs toxicity levels of airborne quartz, metal and carbon particles in cast iron foundries        Editorial Top Scientist communicators p149 doi:10.1038/nclimate2167 The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide — but mainly to dismiss climate science. Correspondence Top Recent observed and simulated warming pp150 - 151 John C. Fyfe and Nathan P. Gillett doi:10.1038/nclimate2111 Palm oil wastewater methane emissions and bioenergy potential pp151 - 152 Philip. G. Taylor, Teresa M. Bilinski, Hana R. F. Fancher, Cory C. Cleveland, Diana R. Nemergut, Samantha R. Weintraub, William R. Wieder and Alan R. Townsend doi:10.1038/nclimate2154 Distinguishing variability from uncertainty p153 Johannes Lehmann and Matthias Rillig doi:10.1038/nclimate2133 Commentaries Top Pause for thought pp154 - 156 Ed Hawkins, Tamsin Edwards and Doug McNeall doi:10.1038/nclimate2150 The recent slowdown (or 'pause') in global surface temperature rise is a hot topic for climate scientists and the wider public. We discuss how climate scientists have tried to communicate the pause and suggest that 'many-to-many' communication offers a key opportunity to directly engage with the public. Media discourse on the climate slowdown pp156 - 158 Maxwell T. Boykoff doi:10.1038/nclimate2156 We must not fall victim to decontextualized and ahistorical media accounting of climate trends. Heat hide and seek pp158 - 161 Lisa Goddard doi:10.1038/nclimate2155 Natural variability can explain fluctuations in surface temperatures but can it account for the current slowdown in warming? No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes pp161 - 163 Sonia I. Seneviratne, Markus G. Donat, Brigitte Mueller and Lisa V. Alexander doi:10.1038/nclimate2145 Observational data show a continued increase of hot extremes over land during the so-called global warming hiatus. This tendency is greater for the most extreme events and thus more relevant for impacts than changes in global mean temperature. The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world pp164 - 166 Todd Sanford, Peter C. Frumhoff, Amy Luers and Jay Gulledge doi:10.1038/nclimate2148 It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate. Correction Top Correction p166 doi:10.1038/nclimate2158 News Feature Top Pacific puzzle pp167 - 169 Olive Heffernan doi:10.1038/nclimate2149 Scientists have offered numerous explanations for the recent slowdown in global surface warming. Now, one study suggests that tropical trade winds may hold the answer. Interview Top In the public's mind p170 doi:10.1038/nclimate2152 The policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Bob Ward, talks to Nature Climate Change about the need for climate scientists to actively engage with the public. Research Highlights Top Hydrology: The rains are coming | Cryosphere: Trickledown effect | Political science: Local governance | Climate Impacts: Warming by degrees | Ecological Impacts: Size matters News and Views Top Atmospheric science: Increasing wind sinks heat pp172 - 173 Yu Kosaka doi:10.1038/nclimate2138 Surface global warming has stalled since around 2000 despite increasing atmospheric CO2. A study finds that recent strengthening of Pacific trade winds has enhanced heat transport from the surface to ocean depths, explaining most of the slowed surface warming. See also: Article by Matthew H. England et al. Human impacts: Winter weather and health pp173 - 174 Cunrui Huang and Adrian Barnett doi:10.1038/nclimate2146 There has been much debate about whether winter warming due to climate change will substantially decrease mortality in that season. Research now finds that cold severity no longer predicts the number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales. See also: Letter by Philip L. Staddon et al. Biodiversity: Predictive traits to the rescue pp175 - 176 Antoine Guisan doi:10.1038/nclimate2157 Climate change poses new challenges to the conservation of species, which at present requires data-hungry models to meaningfully anticipate future threats. Now a study suggests that species traits may offer a simpler way to help predict future extinction risks. See also: Letter by Richard G. Pearson et al. nclimate JOBS of the week Assistant Professor in Nutrient Runoff in a Climate Perspective University of Southern Denmark Professorship - Faculty of Earth Sciences, Geography and Astronomy University of Vienna (Universitaet Wien) Lecturer in Environmental Sciences The Open University, Faculty of Science Director - AJ Drexel Institute for Energy and the Environment Drexel University Dean, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Feedbacks on Climate in the Earth System 08.12.14 London, UK More science events from   Letters Top Integrating emissions transfers into policy-making pp177 - 181 Marco Springmann doi:10.1038/nclimate2102 International trade is responsible for a large portion of carbon emissions transfers, mainly from developing to developed countries. Research now analyses different policies to address these transfers. The most promising option, both environmentally and economically, is for developed nations to offset trade-related emissions by financing clean development projects in developing countries. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan pp182 - 185 V. Mueller, C. Gray and K. Kosec doi:10.1038/nclimate2103 Evidence on the relationship between human migration and climatic events is limited. Now research links information from a longitudinal survey in rural Pakistan to satellite-derived measures of climate variability. Results show that heat stress consistently increases the long-term migration of men owing to impacts on income. Economic development and the carbon intensity of human well-being pp186 - 189 Andrew K. Jorgenson doi:10.1038/nclimate2110 Economic development improves the conditions of human life, but at a cost to the natural environment. Research now estimates the relationship between economic development and the carbon intensity of human well-being—the ratio of anthropogenic carbon emissions to average life expectancy at birth—globally, over 40 years. Most of the countries studied, including African nations over recent decades, followed unsustainable paths of development. Climate warming will not decrease winter mortality pp190 - 194 Philip L. Staddon, Hugh E. Montgomery and Michael H. Depledge doi:10.1038/nclimate2121 Recent reports suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to decrease winter mortality in temperature countries as winters warm. Research now finds that the link between winter temperatures and excess winter deaths in England and Wales, over the period 1951–2011, is significant only until the mid 1970s, other factors explaining any variation in excess winter mortality since then. See also: News and Views by Cunrui Huang et al. Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines pp195 - 200 Mark Z. Jacobson, Cristina L. Archer and Willett Kempton doi:10.1038/nclimate2120 Damage from hurricanes is increasing in many coastal regions worldwide. Research now shows that large wind-turbine arrays can significantly diminish peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds and storm surge. The net cost of turbine arrays is less than that of today’s fossil-fuel electricity generation and also than that of sea walls used to avoid storm-surge damage. A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases pp201 - 205 Chunzai Wang, Liping Zhang, Sang-Ki Lee, Lixin Wu and Carlos R. Mechoso doi:10.1038/nclimate2118 The use of models for the prediction of future climate conditions is commonplace. This study investigates regional sea surface temperature biases across 22 climate models and finds that they are linked to the large circulation system in the Atlantic Ocean. Improvements to climate models will need to consider the impact of remote biases on regional processes. Ecological stability in response to warming pp206 - 210 Katarina E. Fussmann, Florian Schwarzmüller, Ulrich Brose, Alexandre Jousset and Björn C. Rall doi:10.1038/nclimate2134 Although many species-level responses to climate warming have been documented, understanding of ecosystem-level stability under warming remains low. Now, a study using meta-analyses of temperature effects on metabolic rates, reeding rates and population sizes along with a mechanistic predator–prey model finds that warming stabilizes predator–prey dynamics but risks predator starvation. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries pp211 - 216 M. Barange, G. Merino, J. L. Blanchard, J. Scholtens, J. Harle, E. H. Allison, J. I. Allen, J. Holt and S. Jennings doi:10.1038/nclimate2119 The future sustainability of global fisheries is unknown. Models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change are applied to 67 national exclusive economic zones, which cover 60% of global fishery catches. This allows prediction of climate change impacts on countries with different dependencies on fisheries. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change pp217 - 221 Richard G. Pearson, Jessica C. Stanton, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, Peter J. Ersts, Ned Horning, Damien A. Fordham, Christopher J. Raxworthy, Hae Yeong Ryu, Jason McNees and H. Re?it Akçakaya doi:10.1038/nclimate2113 Climate change could be a game-changer for biodiversity conservation, potentially invalidating many established methods including those employed in vulnerability assessments. Now, a simulation study finds that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using measurable spatial and demographic variables. Interestingly, most of those variables identified as important are already used in species conservation assessment. See also: News and Views by Antoine Guisan Article Top Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus pp222 - 227 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich and Agus Santoso doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 The slowdown in global average surface warming has recently been linked to sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This work shows that strengthening trade winds caused a reduction in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C. This may account for much of the warming hiatus and is a result of increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. See also: News and Views by Yu Kosaka Erratum Top Erratum: Detection limits of albedo changes induced by climate engineering p228 Dian J. Seidel, Graham Feingold, Andrew R. Jacobson and Norman Loeb doi:10.1038/nclimate2151   Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. For event advertising opportunities across the Nature Publishing Group portfolio please contact natureevents@nature.com More Nature Events

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