| March 17, 2014 | | | | | |
 | | | | Emerging Markets are a Sell--Except for One... | | | - Beware "cheap" emerging market plays
- How many falling knives will you catch?
- Plus: The only emerging market worth buying today
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| | | Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
 | | Greg Guenthner | Don't go searching for emerging market "value plays". Not yet, anyway.
If you do, you'll probably get burned.
Today, I'm going to show you a couple of terrible looking emerging market charts. They're quickly finding lower ground, diving toward some ugly first-quarter returns.
However, there's also one emerging market name that's separating itself from these underperformers. I'll reveal this chart (and why I think it's one of the strongest longer-term buys on the market) in today's PRO.
But first, you've probably noticed a few market pundits and financial news outlets are now urging investors to take a shot at emerging market names--because many of them are "cheap".
I get it. It's difficult to find many deep value plays on the U.S. stock market these days. But that's not a good enough reason for you to try and catch the emerging market falling knives.
You can see on the chart how the iShares Emerging Markets Index and China both decoupled from the performance of U.S. stocks in late 2013. As of this morning, most emerging market names look awful. I'm not seeing any reason at all to starting buying just yet...
However, consider some of the headwinds that could push sentiment levels to extremely low levels in the coming months:
"China GDP growth has slipped from a 10.4% annual rate in 2010 to just 7.6% last year. Elsewhere, Brazil saw its current account deficit hit a 12-year high in 2013 - showing more money heading out of the country than coming in," explains MarketWatch. "At the same time, stability at home (and giddy sentiment from a surging S&P) led to a repatriation of cash. Regions like Brazil and China were the only place to find growth during the financial crisis, but a lower unemployment rate and brighter outlook at home has made America more attractive and investors have moved their money."
So there you have it. All of those excited BRIC investors from the previous decade have dumped their cash back into U.S. markets. Crappy economic data overseas also isn't helping these emerging markets gains any traction.
These charts will eventually bottom out. The key is not to jump in to early. Don't get tunnel vision and go after the "cheap" emerging market names just yet. They'll burn you...
But there is one name I like in this space for a longer-term play. Here's how you can get it right now... | | | | | | | | | URGENT: An IRS Agent Has Defected
An insider has blown the whistle on a little-known tax document... a document so special... that IRS agents themselves use it to hide their own money. Your accountant probably doesn't even know it exists. But now... after years as an IRS hit man... one insider has switched sides... And is showing hardworking taxpayers exactly how to get their hands on it. Click here to read his shocking story... and discover the amazing document that could save you $20,000 or more, year after year. | | | | | | | |  | | | | Rude Numbers | Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
| | | | $41 billion | of investors' money has returned to ETF's in the past four weeks. | | $374 million | in annual revenues are expected to be generated at Amazon following its "Prime" price hike to $99. | | 80% | gains in the price of coffee this year come alongside 40% gains for lean hogs, 24% for oats and 15% for corn. Even though many of these names are in the red this morning, commodities are clearly becoming market leaders in 2014... | | $4.52 | is the price of natural gas this morning. A late-winter blanket of snow on the East Coast is helping to provide some relief to natty prices--which have been tumbling since spiking toward $6.50 last month... | | 1,842 | is where you'll find S&P futures early this morning. The broad market is looking to rebound after hitting three-week lows Friday. We'll soon see whether the move sticks... | | | | | | | | Rude Trends | When to Buy... When to Sell
| | | "Last week, we got the first signs of a market that's rolling over," declares my trading buddy Jonas Elmerraji.
Jonas has helped keep us on top of the market's fluctuations for months now. So far, he hasn't whiffed on any of his big guesses. He nailed the late January bottom in the S&P. Now, he sees some turbulence ahead for the broad market...
"Thursday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.17%, the worst day since January's correction. And after hinting at a rebound on Friday, the big index shed another 0.28%," he continues. "The market remains obedient to the technicals in March. And as a result, we're not getting caught with any big surprises. But grab your popcorn - I can guarantee that every point the S&P 500 slips in the next week or so will come with a healthy dose of panic from the financial media.
"They'll blame the situation in the Ukraine, slowdowns in China - heck maybe even this latest round of snow on the East Coast."
But while CNBC does their best to get investors pulling their hair out, Jonas will be preparing his next "green light" trade. You can access his watch list here...
[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner] | | | | | | | Ignore At Your Own Peril | Today's Must Read Links
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