Consumer Crush

Daily Newsletter From Larry Levin.... Having trouble reading this email? View the online version Consumer Crush The notion of the declining debt burden for the consumer is in fact correct. That is if you exclude people who a - drive or b - use money appropriated for one thing for another purpose. Itis no secret that students increasingly use their loans for a lot of things besides tuition.  Last month total consumer credit increased by $13.8 billion, of which $14.0 billion went into student and car loans. Yes, people are putting less on their credit card -which is a good sign-but February was even worse. The headline number was great: $16.5 billion, well above the $14.0 billion expected. The problem is that of this number well more than 100%, or $18.9 billion was once again slated for car purchases and paying down "student bills"  In other words, anyone suggesting that the "surge" in household lending is in any way remotely indicative of consumer hope is incredibly naive. This is just another instance of free credit where Uncle Sam (aka all of us) will be left holding the bag when things go south.    In the past 12 months, a record 98% of all credit - $162 billion - has gone into non-revolving debt. while only $4 billion or 2% of total has gone on credit cards. So much for the heralded consumer recovery.   The market certainly was spooked by something as things got downright ugly on Monday for the NASDAQ. Most major averages are now close to flat on the year. It should continue to be interesting. Read Past Issues of Larry's Newsletters at TradeWithLarry.com STOCKS: Watch List The markets sold off yet again. Sellers took an aggressive stance early in the session, and trading trended down to the lows of the day. With the momentum stocks leading the way, we saw massive liquidation and stops getting hit, only fueling the fire sale taking place the last 3 sessions. With an aggressive stance by sellers, buyers stood on the sidelines with the exception of a few stocks. This was after the markets gapped open higher, looking like it might rebound at the open. We could see a similar reaction, but I do believe that the major averages are due for a bounce.................Read More FUTURES Technical Data ES 1851.75/1837.75 POC 1838.25 YM 16282/1616 NQ  3525.25/3493.25 OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary Over the last few months we have highlighted how unusual option activity can lead us to an entry signal. It's pretty straight forward. Someone comes in and floods the market with some huge volume and the market has no choice but to go that way as the market makers have nowhere to hedge their position. So, if your timing is good, you jump on the same play and hopefully are along for the ride. Our play today was a little different. We still used UOA to alert us to a potential signal................ Read More IMPORTANT NOTICE: The risk of loss in trading futures, options on futures, stocks and stock options can be substantial and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC only provides educational services. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. The hypothetical signal results shown above represent signals offered in real time in the training room. A signal does not get posted unless there is a reasonable likelihood that if an order had been placed it would have been executed. Further, adjustments are made to simulate the costs of commissions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The posted information is shown for educational purposes only and no signal shown was actually executed as a trade Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. Copyright 2014 Trading Advantage Our address is 111 West Jackson Blvd, 1122, Chicago, IL, 60604, USA Click here to opt out (You can also send your request to Customer Care at the street address above.)