By Andy Gordon on May 6, 2014 Dear Early Investor,
When I turn on the TV, the first thing I see is a list of my favorite shows. That's not so hard. I have a Smart TV, and it's merely presenting me with my most recently watched shows.
My TV takes more of a leap when it shows me a list of "shows you may like." I went through the first dozen again last night. And, as usual, none interested me.
I guess it's not so smart after all. And, right now, robots aren't either.
A couple of months ago, I wrote an article called "The Rise of the Robots." My biggest fear, I said, was the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
Ray Kurzweil, the world's best predictor of future artificial intelligence according to Bill Gates, says AI will surpass human intelligence by 2029.
AI is one of the biggest threats we face, if not the biggest. But today, what I'd like to explore is the role of startups in making robots useful and wanted, while we wait for AI to turn our world upside down.
An $8.7 Billion Market in 2012 and Growing
Should you be excited or wary? And how can you tell if a startup is on the right track?
It's easier and cheaper than ever to develop breaking robotechnology. Why cheaper?
For one thing, cloud robotics can provide much of the software. The hardware needed is also cheap. Helping out are 3-D printers. They've become a staple of robotics labs, making little gizmos for pennies on the dollar.
Why easier? One is the existence of a Robot Operating System (ROS). It's free and easy to customize. Robotics no longer requires expertise in a variety of fields like manipulators, electronics and engineering joints and wheels.
Plus the same technology used in game consoles is now used in robots. Microsoft's Xbox 360 uses Kinect sensors along with great software to "sense" players' movements. These same sensors enable robots to navigate their surroundings. And they're reasonably priced.
The Economist agrees. Its recent article on the "Rise of the Robots" explains how "using ROS and a Kinect, it is now relatively easy to build a rudimentary robot capable of finding its way round a building."
But for software developers aiming higher than rudimentary, their newly designed software can now be tested in a cloud-based simulated environment.
It's a huge boost to efficiency, says Gill Pratt (on loan to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency from MIT). It reminds him, he says, of the early days of chip making. At first, you had to build the chip to see if it worked. When simulators allowed chip designers to test their designs in advance, technological development took off.
My Ideal Robotics Startup
Investors will have dozens of startups with impressive technology to choose from.
The technology is only the beginning, however. It gets startups into the conversation. But their product/technology also must have three other things or they'll get nowhere... - It has to be practical. Military drones are incredibly dumb but they are practical. All they need to do is follow simple commands like "follow this flight plan" or "come home and land." Then there's iRobot's Roomba. It serves a simple need that almost everyone has. It cleans floors. My son has one. He's one among 8 million users. Startup Atheon makes a very practical robot used in about 150 hospitals. It's a "trundlebot," designed to move heavy trolleys around.
- It has to work well with people. Paro fits the bill because it's so likable. It's a cuddly baby seal-like robot that provides comfort to the elderly and people with Alzheimer's. Its best trick? Paro gives the impression of following a conversation. It costs $5,000. A nursing home can afford one. Individuals - not so much.
The Economist says, "The most useful robots will be those that are best suited to working with people." To this end, safety is becoming less of an issue. MIT says, "even conventional industrial robots are becoming safer to work around, making them more likely to collaborate with humans." - Its customer base is big. Baxter is a two-armed quasi-humanoid that can perform a number of packaging and assembly tasks. It sells for just $25,000. But it has not taken the market by storm. Rethink, Baxter's maker, is now redirecting its marketing to researchers instead of industrial users. Researchers are a nice niche market. But industrial users are a big and broad market. No contest. Rethink has made a big mistake. I like the product, but I'm no longer interested in the company.
 Robots: Still Mostly Science Fiction
It'll be another decade before a robot can stick a plug into a socket. The precise calibration of force and fit it requires is way beyond what robots can do. Frankly, I see more constraints than capabilities in the next five to 10 years.
But that doesn't mean I won't be looking closely at technology that helps robotics advance.
Just one example: Aquifi. Its Fluid Experience platform should work better than Kinect technology. Back in 2010, the first Kinect technology could detect 3-D points in a 320-by-240 grid. The newer Kinect can detect on a 640-by-480 field. Fluid Experience can detect points in a 1,280-by-720 grid, a vast improvement.
Aquifi was hidden from public view until a few weeks ago when it announced what it's doing. This is how I believe the robotic sector will advance... in fits and starts with periodic breakthroughs from the Googles of the world plus a couple of dozen startups like Aquifi.
It will be fascinating to see how everything evolves. American venture capitalists fertilized the sector with $400 million worth of investments last year. It's still very early. VC money will continue to pour into robotics.
At the moment, though, the hype has surged ahead of actual progress. More than simply growing, robotics has a lot of growing up to do.
Photo originally posted by Steve Jurvetson on Flickr.    
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