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| | Tuesday, July 22, 2014 | Issue #2338 | |
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Are Treasurys About to Spike? Christopher Rowe, Director of Investor Education, The Oxford Club
It pays to stay diversified among many asset classes, including bonds. Today, I'm seeing signs of U.S. Treasurys strengthening relative to corporate bonds (and probably in absolute terms as well). We can find out which one is likely to outperform the other by looking at a relative strength chart of two ETFs: the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE: HYG). The Barclays Treasurys ETF tracks a group of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. The iBoxx Corporate Bond ETF tracks a group of U.S. high-yield corporate bonds. We'll start our analysis by comparing the two ETFs since April of 2007.  View larger image With a quick glance, you can see they tend to have an inverse relationship. Treasurys go up when investors are looking for safety. High-yield corporate bonds go up when investors are comfortable taking more risk. But for most of 2014, both have been trading higher (along with the stock market), as U.S. assets in general is where investors want to be. Overall, U.S. bond yields have been declining as they fall in line with the low rates of other developed countries. The "Three-Minute Crisis" Coming to America The final phase of America's ongoing debt crisis is almost here. And analyst Marc Lichtenfeld has pinpointed the time and place. This event could wipe out millions of investors. But it will make a small percentage very rich. How? The debt crunch will soon create the world's first $93 trillion investment opportunity. The key is preparing now. And this presentation reveals everything you need to know. Simply click here for details... | |
But if we had used a relative strength study at the start of the year, it would have been easy to see that Treasurys would likely be a stronger market than high-yielding corporate bonds in 2014. And today, we are seeing even more signaling that the trend is likely to continue for some time. I'll explain using the charts below... The relative strength line, at the bottom, advances when the Treasurys ETF is outperforming the corporate bond ETF.  View larger image Notice how I am able to use trend lines on the relative strength portion of the chart. I connect peaks to lower peaks (red dots) and extend the line to the right to create these downtrend lines. When the downtrend lines are penetrated due to the Treasurys ETF outperforming the corporate bond ETF, we tend to see the former making sharp price advances (black arrows). That happens because Treasurys usually have an inverse relationship with high-yield corporate bonds. So what new developments lead me to believe we will see a continuation of this trend? Let's zoom in to the past two years of the same chart. Instead of the typical inverse relationship between the two bond markets, we can see that both have been advancing, with Treasurys outperforming in 2014. When we look at the corporate bond ETF in the upper section, and the Treasurys ETF in the middle section, we can see that former has recently turned down, breaking its support while the latter turned up, attempting to break a key resistance level. In addition, the corporate bond ETF is finally breaking down after a 12-month rising wedge formation, a strong bearish signal.  View larger image And an important new developments has formed in the relative strength line, at the bottom. It has put in a "reverse head and shoulders" formation. A left shoulder was formed in August/September 2013 while the head was created from that point to February 1, 2014. We are able to use those points to draw the neckline (red) and extend that out. Although the neckline was penetrated in May, the relative strength line dipped back below in June. But it came back with a vengence and made a new 12-month high this month as the Treasurys ETF pushes higher and the corporate bond ETF pushes lower. This leads me to believe it's very likely not only that the Treasurys ETF will outperform the corporate bond ETF, but that U.S. Treasury prices have a good chance of advancing in absolute terms. Good investing, Chris Rowe | |
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| | | Your humble Social Media Manager here. I'm reporting this evening from the Fairmont Le Château Frontenac in Quebec, where The Oxford Club is holding its Private Wealth Seminar. The two-day conference kicked off this morning in the Salon Frontenac, a newly renovated banquet room at the top of the Château's grand staircase. Read On... | |
| | | Recently I went looking for the best candidates for both growth and income in the energy industry for 2014. I used the proprietary stock screener i developed to scour the 114 energy master limited partnerships (MLP) available to investors. It identified just three. Each of them pays a dividend greater than 10% annually and has excellent potential for growth as well. Read On... | |
| | | Sadly, investors aren't the only victims of Wall Street. On July 17, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella announced 18,000 layoffs in a bid to make the company more competitive. Even with the news of deep job cuts, Microsoft's shares jumped. In fact, shares are up 19% year to date. But why? Aren't layoffs a bad omen? Read On... | |
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