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2014/07/22

Unintended Consequences

Larry Levin's Daily Market Commentary

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Unintended Consequences

You can't keep a resilient market down. Sure, it seemed early on in the trading day that the markets were finally pricing in the geopolitical S#%T storm. But a midday rampfest erased much of the earlier losses.

Sound familiar? Speaking of familiar, once again we see misguided foreign policies by intervening governments yielding unintended consequences.

From Zero Hedge:

"Considering that the services industry probably kept expanding, seasonally and workday-adjusted gross domestic prodIt is no secret that the gist of western thinking has been that sanctions against Russia would pressure its economy enough to force Putin to finally crawl to the negotiating table, tail between his legs, and beg for western forgiveness. Call it the law of unintended consequences striking once again, because while Russia's economy continues to hum along (if only for now, something that can't be said about Ukraine's) and has forced the Kremlin to seek a variety of deals with China to avoid western isolationism, one other country may have been crippled far faster than Russia: Germany.

As Germany's Bundesbank reported overnight, in its latest current monthly report that was widely ignored due to the blanket media coverage of events in the Ukraine, if not so much in Gaza, "Germany's economy may have stagnated in 2Q."

Who is to blame? Why the ongoing Ukraine conflict of course, and more specifically, the western response to it. As Deutsche Welle reported, "the institution said in a monthly report released Monday that second-quarter growth in Germany had likely slipped due to turbulence in Ukraine and Iraq and a number of public holidays which led to shorter work weeks."

More from Bloomberg:

• "Economic growth in Germany markedly lost momentum in the first two months of spring," the Bundesbank says in its monthly report.

• "Activity in the construction industry declined, as expected, from very high levels in the winter that were bolstered by mild weather"

Yes, in Germany the "winter weather" was actually a boost to the economy. Sure, why not.

• Says manufacturing activity declined, partly due to geopolitical tensions and timing of public holidaysuct in the second quarter may have remained at the level of the first quarter."

Incidentally, nothing the Bundesbank has said is new, considering both hard and survey data coming out of Germany in the past few months have been abysmal. Still, one has to wonder if the Western sanctions are going to magnify German problems.

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The major averages started swinging lower early on in the session yesterday. With the geopolitical situation weighing on the markets, we saw some aggressive selling ahead of President Obama's statement. After he spoke and no new sanctions were given to Russia, the markets rebounded strong and bounced off the lows. While we did finish in negative territory, the bounce back showed that buyers are continuously looking for value plays. I suspect this will carry over into today, and I think we do open up in positive territory based on the buying. Look for a gap open tomorrow. While there could be a pullback to fill the gap early, I suspect we could see some limited upside extension also. Trading conditions will be more favorable for the short term buyer.

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TECHNICAL DATA
ES 1968.50/1961.50
POC 1963.75
YM 16994/16930
NQ 3929.75/3915.25
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How do we decide which expiration and what strikes to use when we have identified a directional setup in an equity?  Let's take our example in our signal in HLF this morning.  The soap opera continues this week and going into next with Ackman and Ichan either trying to convince the world that HLF is a pyramid scheme or trying to defend the position that it is not.  Earnings are 7/28.  We are presently in the Ackman camp and our technical analysis back our assertion.  We think there exists a very real possibility that Ackman does have some compelling evidence that he intends to drop on the market tomorrow morning before earnings.  Even if the market is not convinced, we like the prospects of taking a short position at least going up to the earnings report.

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