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2014/08/05

This Signal Just Turned Red

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Tuesday, August 5, 2014 | Issue #2347

Technical Tuesday:
This Signal Just Turned Red

Christopher Rowe, Director of Investor Education, The Oxford Club


Christopher Rowe Last week's power punch to the stock market shocked some bullish investors. And as usual, many are starting to ask whether they just witnessed this year's market top.

Trying to time the stock market can be a futile exercise, but understanding the risk dynamics is paramount. And the granddaddy of all stock market risk barometers has just sent an important signal.

The New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index (NYSE BPI) is an intermediate-term risk barometer that tells us whether supply or demand is in control of the stock market.

How does it do this? By telling us what percentage of stocks on the NYSE are on "point and figure" buy signals versus sell signals.

What you need to know

Financial expert Marc Lichtenfeld believes $93 trillion could suddenly rush out of certain investments - and into others. Ironically, the ongoing bull market in stocks will hasten this event's arrival. Some investors will get very rich, while others will get crushed - especially when it comes to their "safe" holdings. But you don't have to be one of them - not this time. He's created this presentation to ensure that you come out on the winning side. View it here.

Important Moves Only

The power of this indicator lies in the fact that it focuses only on significant movements in stock prices.

You see, for a stock to move from a point-and-figure sell signal to a point-and-figure buy signal (or vice versa) there must be a breakout above a resistance level (or below a support level) as well as a significant change in a stock's price.

The NYSE BPI is a powerful indicator because it changes direction only when the point-and-figure buy or sell signals occurred in more than 6% of all stocks on the NYSE.

The NYSE BPI changed direction on Friday, after a week of strong selling.

Because the indicator had a decline of more than 6% from the high it set in early July, a down column - indicated by a new "O column" on the far right - has been created. This O column currently fills three boxes with an "8" in the lowest box, signifying the change occurred in August.


View larger image

This is an indication of elevated risk to bulls, as supply has taken control of the intermediate term.

The change occurred because a large number of stocks moved below key support levels, which takes a serious commitment of institutional investment capital. And when institutions make such an important decision, it's vital to know what's happening.

This doesn't mean it's time to bail out. It just means we must be more selective about our positions and take a closer look at which ones haven't been working during market rallies.

The NYSE BPI typically changes columns a few times per year. It flipped to O's in February when risk was elevated and back to X's in the beginning of March when the skies cleared.

So, as you can see, while risk was elevated at that time, the stock market charged higher again.

Will we look in the rearview mirror and realize that we have seen the 2014 stock market high? No one knows. But when the market offers us a signal, it pays to take notice.

Good investing,

Chris
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