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2014/10/25

The Many Roads to Rome

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Saturday, October 25, 2014 | Issue #123
NAZI SECRETS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING WE KNOW ABOUT OUR ENERGY FUTURE?

Back in November of 1943, this B-17 had just leveled a top-secret energy plant that produced 60% of Germany's fuel.

These burning storage tanks held a "miracle of chemistry" both Russia and the U.S. wanted to get their hands on.

And if they couldn't, the second-best option was to destroy it.

Now, a little-known company has brought these secrets "back to life"... and is about to rewrite everything we know about America's energy future...

Read on...

Joel Bowman, writing today from Helsinki, Finland...

According to WebMD's "Drugs and Medications" section, meclizine is the most favorably reviewed preventative treatment for "nausea, vomiting, and dizziness caused by motion sickness."

We have no idea if the stuff works or not... but investors might wish to keep a stash handy.

"Dizzying highs" and "nauseating lows" are par for the course of late. Indeed, days during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not register triple-digit swings - either up or down - are becoming as rare as impolite Scandinavians.

During the first 17 trading sessions of October (that is, the month up until Friday), the Dow either fell or rallied more than 100 points on no fewer than 12 separate occasions. Several of those days were multihundred-point moves. And several more exhibited multihundred-point intraday swings.

A month for smooth sailing it has not been. As such, the VIX - a measure of implied volatility sometimes known as "Wall Street's Fear Gauge" - has been on a rollercoaster ride of its own.

At one mid-month minute, investors even appeared to, for a fleeting moment, second-guess themselves. It was on that day, October 15, when the Dow had bungee-jumped 450-plus points to below 16,000, that the VIX spiked to a reading over 30.

It was the Fear Gauge's highest mark in almost two years.

Maybe investors were spooked by Ebola... or political turmoil in Russia/the Middle East... or a weakening economic outlook in Europe... or a slowdown in China...

Or maybe they were afraid the pending conclusion of the Fed's EZ money program would kill the market's unquestioning enthusiasm for equities. Janet Yellen had, after all, promised to take away the QE punch bowl at the end of October. Remember, the Fed has been lapping up unloved bonds by the trillions over the past few years. During Bernanke's and Yellen's (thus far) terms, the Fed's own balance sheet has swollen from $800 million to over $4.5 trillion.

That's a whole lotta punch. What happens when it goes away? Fireworks? Catastrophe? A zombie apocalypse?

Either way, we could hardly wait to find out!

Alas, it looks like we'll have to wait a little longer. The day after stocks hit a six-month low and the VIX crested a 22-month high, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard spilled the beans. The Fed wouldn't leave investors out on a limb all alone... it would climb right out there with them!

"Inflation expectations are declining in the U.S.," Bullard warned during an interview with Bloomberg News. "That's an important consideration for a central bank. And for that reason I think that a logical policy response at this juncture may be to delay the end of the QE."

Translation: More "consequence free" money printing! More absinthe in the punch bowl! More can kicking, politicking and central-bank boot licking!

Mr. Bullard claims he's merely trying to mind the "inflation gap." As part of its so-called "dual mandate," the Fed targets a 2% annual rate of inflation. However, (its own) figures reveal but a lackluster 1.7% rate.

Now, we can't say for sure if that's what's got Bullard's breeches in a bunch. Perhaps it really is a 0.3% shortcoming keeping him up at night. Perhaps it's something else...

In any event, he needn't worry. There's no evidence to suggest that destroying a currency's value adds to the wealth and happiness of a population. If that were the case, Zimbabwe and Argentina would be the most prosperous nations on the face of the Earth. And yet... reality indicates otherwise.

Modern economists are forever fretting that the government is not stealing enough of people's purchasing power through inflation. They worry that a deflationary spell will cause people to stop spending in expectation of lower prices tomorrow, next week or next month. But this too rings false.

In the first instance, there's nothing wrong with "not spending." It's called "saving," and it's a critical foundation for healthy economic expansion (as opposed to a debt-based system, such as that promoted - not coincidentally - by the world's most indebted governments). Investment and capital formation, not rabid consumerism, form the bedrock of sustainable, long-term growth.

Secondly, consumers purchase items everyday that they fully expect to fall in price. It's called "time preference."

Just look at the line around the block whenever a new iPhone is launched. Consumers know it will be next-to-worthless when the newer, shinier (bendier?) model comes out a year from now... but they buy one anyway.

Same thing with new cars... TVs... cameras... and just about all new technologies.

We don't see Apple or Samsung going out of business because their products "get cheaper." In other words, we don't see a lack of consumer demand based on falling future price expectations.

Nor do we see bleeding-edge technology companies cutting back on R&D because they fear falling prices for their goods and/or services. On the contrary... it's an incentive to innovate even faster! Provided he does so wisely, the producer who invests early, ahead of the pack, often stands to benefit from first mover advantage. (Same as the farmer who invests in plant and machinery before his competition. Likewise the boot-maker... the Internet startup... the tour operator, etc.)

The deflation monster is mythological, in other words... a fear-mongering narrative cooked up by a gang of monopolist currency thugs because the opposite outcome - inflation - directly serves its purpose.

Deflation rewards savers and investors (citizens and businesses). Inflation rewards borrowers and spenders (governments).

But too much of a "good thing" can be poisonous for the State too. In today's feature essay, Classical Wisdom Weekly's contributing editor Ben Potter takes a look at some of the reasons behind the fall of the Roman Empire. The astute reader will recognize all the hallmarks of a collapsing power... military misadventure, moral bankruptcy and... yes... rampant inflation to boot!

Please enjoy...

P.S. Our friends at Classical Wisdom Weekly recently launched their Classical Wisdom Society... an "agora for the Digital Age" where lovers of classical literature, philosophy and history can gather to discuss the lessons contained in the great texts and their bearing on current events.

Charter memberships are officially closed for now, but we managed to secure a special deal with their publishers. If you'd like to learn more, see here.


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The Many Roads to Rome

By Ben Potter


Imagine a world where Europe is united under a common banner, has shared interests, open markets and... a single currency. A currency that has such an impact on the continent that its mass inflation threatens the very existence of the union itself!

Believe it or not, this all played out long before the Draghis and Legardes of the world arrived on the stage. We are actually talking about an event that happened over 1,500 years ago, back in ancient Rome.

Then, as now, there were only so many methods by which emperors could raise funds. While finding a convenient traitor and confiscating his lands was a good one, the two most popular ways to do it were by a) expanding the empire through military expansion and b) debasing the denarius, the preferred Roman currency.

Although the former was easier said than done, it was nevertheless done with aplomb.

The problem, however, was that after an initial boon to the coffers and a swelling of the slave class, not every province was an automatic money-spinner. Indeed, some required a great deal of maintenance, both in terms of infrastructure and the military personnel needed to keep the peace.

The best way to deal with these problems? Expand even further, of course!

The empire reached the height of its imperial power relatively early on, under Trajan in fact (A.D. 98-117). Thus a great deal of time, effort and, crucially, money was spent maintaining the great, straining behemoth.

Many emperors saw debasing the silver denarius as a much simpler and swifter way to swell the treasuries and afford the embattled government some pecuniary respite... however brief.

The advantage was that, although the market would eventually adjust to the devalued coin, the imperial court would have a jump on such information and could spend its heart out. By the time the now weaker currency reached the hands of the common people, its lesser worth had already been revealed.

If the emperor were lucky enough to die soon after this devaluation, the mess would belong to his successor. If he had the poor fortune to survive, he'd have to deal with the fallout himself.

But how much damage could shaving a sliver of silver off the coin actually do?

Well, perhaps not that much, but this was no measly fraction. The denarius in the first century had a silver content of above 90%. After 100 years, it dropped to 60%. By the time the empire had split into east and west, it was down to a paltry 5%.

But this wasn't a simple, direct, one-way trajectory... indeed, the western empire did manage to regain some of its financial bearings before its eventual fall.

One such rebound was due to the economic reforms of Constantine the Great, who used his newfound Christianity as an excuse to melt down offending iconography and re-base the currency in one fell swoop. 

But it was all a case of too little, too late. There were other, larger forces at play.

For instance, the army, which many saw as an inevitable expense, was hemorrhaging denarii, not least because of Rome's ever-increasing reliance on mercenaries. The use of these was a double-edged sword, as they were not merely of fickle loyalty, but often broke out in open revolt against their paymasters.

The origin of problems such as this are often traced back to Emperor Commodus, the sinister figure portrayed by Joaquin Phoenix in the movie Gladiator.

Although he did bankrupt the state, Commodus was probably no more culpable than many of his successors. His own reign, following on the back of the "five good emperors," appeared a stark failure by comparison.

In addition to financial decay, the collapse and dissolution of the western empire has been attributed to many causes: a lack of cooperation from the eastern empire, diminishing trade routes, a rise in piracy, mass lead poisoning and even Christianity eroding traditional values!

However, none of these could compete with the effect left behind by the Huns.

As they drove into northern Europe in the fourth century, not only did they make incursions into Roman territory themselves, but they also forced numerous Germanic barbarian tribes to flee southward.

Inevitably, the reason the empire fell was not just because of silver, but also because of iron and steel.

Its defeat by the Goths at the battle of Adrianople in 378 was not merely a crushing military blow, but one that made the barbarian hordes realize Rome was not all it once was.

The next 70 years saw defeat after defeat as the various tribes chipped away at Rome's mighty empire.

When the end finally came, it was with a whimper rather than a scream.

The last emperor, Romulus Augustulus, was deposed with such little fuss that it's rumored his conqueror, Odoacer, may have let him live a quiet retirement rather than put him to the sword.

Broke, swollen, gouty and infected by its own success... in retrospect, Rome's decline seems inevitable. In the words of the preeminent historian on the topic, Edward Gibbon:


    The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight.

Roma invicta?

Not quite.

Regards,

Ben Potter,
Contributing Editor, Classical Wisdom Weekly

A Note From Joel: So much of what we see in the world around us today is but a reflection of events that happened hundreds or even thousands of years ago. Rather than fixate on the hype and fear mongering that saturate the mainstream news, our friends at Classical Wisdom Weekly try to offer a different perspective... one that dates back to the times of the ancients.

If you'd like to learn about their very important work, feel free to check out their Classical Wisdom Society right here. As mentioned above, membership is officially closed at the moment, but we managed to secure a special deal with their publishers. If you've got a moment, check them out.


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