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2014/11/13

Energy’s Three Wild Cards

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Thursday, November 13, 2014 | Issue #2417

Energy's Three Wild Cards

Sean Brodrick, Resource Strategist, The Oxford Club


Sean Brodrick Things are moving quickly in the energy business. It's like a fast-paced game of poker where the dealer keeps calling different wild cards. Today, I'm going to tell you about three wild cards you should be aware of. And I'll also tell you how you can end up holding a winning hand.

Natural Gas Prices Spiked! But...

Natural gas prices recently hit a four-month high in New York as traders braced for subzero weather to push across the Great Plains and Midwest. There's even talk of a new "polar vortex." Hedge funds tripled their bullish bets on U.S. nat-gas contracts.

Here's the wild card: the weather. It's always changing. I believe the worst of the cold is already priced in. Sure, nat-gas storage levels dropped to an 11-year low after last year's polar vortex. But guess what? Stockpiles have rebounded at their fastest pace since the Energy Information Administration began keeping records.

In fact, U.S. nat-gas production has risen for 10 months in a row. It's up 7.9% year over year and is now at an all-time high.

So if the winter turns out to be milder than anticipated, we may end up with a lot more supply than demand.

A smart investor might position himself for the downside leg of nat-gas prices.

Consumer Boom

This past weekend, I bought gasoline for my Nissan and paid less than $3 a gallon. I can't remember the last time I did that. Then, on Monday, my wife filled up her van, and the gasoline was $0.08 cheaper per gallon. Holy cow!

That means consumers are spending less money at the gas pump, which means they have more money to spend on other things. And that is excellent news for makers of consumer products, service providers and retailers.

I've followed this story for a while, but the news keeps getting better and better. The International Council of Shopping Centers said chain-store sales jumped 0.6% last month from September. At the same time, average daily consumer purchases rose by $2 to $89 in October.

Looking forward, U.S. holiday sales are expected to rise 4.2%, up from 3.1% last year. You know what? I bet cash-rich consumers will spend those gas-pump savings big-time, and blow the cover off expectations.

Here's the wild card: This is setting up powerful retail sales numbers going forward. If you want a piece of this action, buy select retailers now. I would especially look at retailers who sell to low-income customers. They're more likely to spend any extra money they have (they don't have much choice).

WHAT YOU MUST KNOW ABOUT DRONES

Recently, we dispatched Marc Lichtenfeld to investigate the commercial drone space. What he uncovered was even bigger than we could have imagined...

Regardless of your personal feelings about drones, you need to watch Marc's report. Because, as cyber-defense expert P.W. Singer puts it, "it doesn't really matter if you're against this technology... it's coming." Click here to watch.

That Pesky Putin

Russia just signed its second deal of the year to supply natural gas to China at cut-rate prices.

This deal, for 30 billion cubic meters of nat gas a year, is valued at around $284 billion. And that's a 10% discount off the $400 billion deal China and Russia signed in May for 38 billion cubic meters of nat gas a year.  

So now China is going to get 17% of its total nat-gas supply from Russia. This gives Russia tremendous influence over China, and binds the two countries closer together. Do you think Putin is giving China a big discount partly because his relations with the West are turning sour? Bank on it!

Here's the wild card: This is putting heavy downward pressure on nat-gas imports into Asia. In fact, the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered into North Asia had already dropped to a three-year low before the latest Russia-China deal.

But wait - wasn't the whole point of building those U.S. LNG export terminals to export nat gas to Asia and other countries at much higher prices? Yep.

So, we could see the stocks of potential exporters pull back in the near term. Be ready for that. But if you're a longer-term investor, that might be a dip worth buying. That's because LNG demand is expected to soar over the next 10 years, even with the new Russian supply.

Bottom line: There are big changes going on in the energy markets right now. Some are as simple as the weather. Some are as complex as international deals. But they all hold potential for extraordinary gains if you bet on the right stocks.

Good investing,

Sean

P.S. There's so much changing in the energy business, I can't cover it all here. That's why, on November 20, I'll be talking at length with The Oxford Club's Dave Baumann about the hottest plays in the energy sector via a special online event hosted by The Oxford Club. If you're looking for an opportunity in the meantime, I recently discovered a little-known company that's done something I thought was impossible: It's found a way to produce gasoline without using a drop of oil. The implications are staggering. Click here for the details.
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What's going on here?

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