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2014/11/12

Huge Profits… If Congress Does This One Simple Thing

Will you be ready when $93 trillion suddenly rushes out of certain investments - and into others?

Financial expert Marc Lichtenfeld believes this moment is fast approaching. Ironically, the ongoing bull market in stocks will hasten this event's arrival. Some investors will get very rich. Others will get crushed - especially when it comes to their "safe" holdings. But you don't have to be one of them - not this time. He's created this presentation to ensure that you come out on the winning side. Watch it here.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014 | Issue #2415

The Next Congress Could Deliver Profits for This Sector

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club


Marc Lichtenfeld "Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss"
- The Who

On this week's Oxford Club Radio show, I referenced The Who's epic anthem "Won't Get Fooled Again" when I discussed why I'm not expecting last week's midterm election to change much for the markets or the economy.

Which is not necessarily a bad thing. Unemployment is down, job creation is up - particularly by small- and medium-sized businesses - the economy is chugging along and the stock market is at record highs.

Gridlock in Washington has been a good thing.

And like Alexander Green said last week, other than the Keystone Pipeline getting signed into law, I don't expect a damn thing to change. With one small but potentially lucrative exception.

On January 1, 2013, as part of the Affordable Care Act, the medical device excise tax went into effect. Companies have to pay a 2.3% tax on sales of medical devices. Other healthcare companies are not obligated to pay a similar tax.

According to Advamed, a medical technology industry association, the special tax resulted in 14,000 job losses and 19,000 more positions that were not hired.

Once the new session of Congress opens, Republicans will waste a lot of time and money trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act, knowing full well they do not have the votes to beat a veto by the president.

4 year lows for gold and silver - take advantage now!

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After that, they will likely try to chip away at the law, including the medical device tax, the repeal of which actually stands a chance of gaining bipartisan support, if not presidential acquiescence.

Should the medical device tax be repealed, it could have a meaningful impact on earnings of device makers.

Analysts at Oppenheimer calculated the impact to earnings per share on a number of medical device companies. The findings are in the table below.


You can see that each company will be affected differently, but the biggest impacts, on a percentage-of-EPS basis, will be to Integra LifeSciences (Nasdaq: IART), Volcano Corp. (Nasdaq: VOLC) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX).

Interestingly, two of the companies that will benefit the most from the elimination of the medical device tax also are the cheapest stocks on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. Boston Scientific trades at 13.7 times forward P/E based on Oppenheimer's earnings estimate without the tax. Integra LifeSciences is even more of a bargain at 13.2. That compares to the average forward P/E of the sector (with the tax) of 24.

Boston Scientific is a $7 billion a year company with 23,000 employees around the world. It makes a wide variety of medical products from ultrasound imaging devices to forceps.

Integra LifeSciences is much smaller, with less than $1 billion in annual revenue and just over 3,000 employees. Integra makes tools for surgeons, such as a device to fuse vertebrae and a skin-regeneration system for burn victims.

The broad market should do well if Washington remains stuck in neutral. But a cheap medical device maker that will benefit from a removal of an onerous tax may be a way to generate above-average returns.

Good investing,

Marc

Editor's Note: The market often sends powerful signals that a major rally is set to begin... in a sector or an individual stock. Marc discovered his own "proprietary signal" last year. When it happens, it's like a bolt of lightning that ignites a fire under a stock. And in the world of medicine, lightning has been striking a lot lately. To learn more, click here.
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