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Look for Gems Among Bridgewater's Trades
by Jamie Dlugosch
We know it has been a tough year for hedge fund managers. In 2014 most of the biggest and brightest of the industry are lagging the market.
One of the reasons for the poor performance can be flatly blamed on excessive trading.
I know a hedge fund manager or two, and I can unequivocally say that these folks have itchy trigger fingers. They have a hard time sitting still and will trade oftentimes just for the sake of trading.
The key to the individual investor making money this year has been the ability to stay the course.
As such, it might be useful to look at a specific hedge fund run by Bridgewater Associates founded by Ray Dalio for clues as to whether or not trading activity was beneficial to performance.
In Bridgewater's most recent regulatory filing, the fund notes new positions made and sales of prior positions as of Sept.30.
This snapshot doesn't tell us exactly when these moves were made, but I'm not sure it matters. The lesson here is to simply look at the moves for their general effectiveness.
What were the gains on shares bought and shares sold since Sept.30? That will give us an idea as to whether or not these moves made sense.
In looking at Bridgewater's top 10 holdings that were liquidated in some fashion during the third quarter, it is notable to see that only one position has lost value since Sept. 30.
That would be MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM). The giant casino operator has seen its shares dip slightly -- about 1% since Sept. 30. At the same time the market has moved up over 3%.
In the near term, selling MGM should be viewed as a good thing for the Bridgewater portfolio, but that was the only position that has lost value during this period.
More troubling is the sale of Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR). The maker of big time durable goods mostly for the home has seen its shares jump some 20% since Sept. 30.
That move is significantly above market returns, thus representing a big-time missed opportunity for Bridgewater. I suspect Dalio and his team wish they could have that one back.
By comparison the list of Bridgewater's largest additions to the fund in the third quarter includes two very large losers.
Brazilian steel company Vale (NYSE: VALE) has lost nearly 20% of its value since Sept. 30 thanks in part to dysfunction in Brazil, but also strength in the United States.
That wasn't the only big loser for Bridgewater. Dalio and company also watched shares of new holding Viacom (NASDAQ: VIAB) slip 10% since Sept. 30.
The biggest gainer of Bridgewater's new positions was footwear apparel company L Brands (NYSE: LB), which climbed an impressive 16%.
What is most interesting about all of these trades is that in the short run at least, Bridgewater would appear to have been better off by simply sitting still. In fact, it is worse off for making those trades versus the new additions.
From a valuation standpoint going forward, the one gem in the whole bunch is the one that was sold by Bridgewater: Whirlpool.
Despite the impressive gains, Whirlpool trades to a discount of its expected growth rate, having a price-to-earnings growth rate ratio less than 1.
Of all the trades, that might be the one to follow going forward and own in your portfolio.
Jamie Dlugosch Editor Investor Research Institute
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