| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
With Midterms Over, These Stocks Will Soar
by Jamie Dlugosch
With dissatisfaction in Washington at a peak, incumbents were in big trouble. Indeed, Republicans steamrolled election night, taking over the Senate.
In the majority we can expect gridlock for the remainder of the current presidential term.
Or for those who see the glass half full, perhaps we can now get some serious legislation completed, given President Obama's so-called willingness to work with the other side.
We shall see what transpires, but I'm not sure it matters. There are some significant statistical trends that bode very well for the markets in the near term.
According to Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, the market has been positive in the six months after midterm elections since 1950.
Barclays Capital strategist Jonathan Glionna goes further, stating that the market has appreciated by 7% on average in the three months after midterm elections.
Part of the positivity may just be that the period after elections is historically a good time to own stocks.
The bottom line seems to be that investors should be long and strong.
What stocks should we own now that Republicans have taken control of Congress? The most obvious winner with a right-leaning Washington would be the oil sector.
Passage of the Keystone Pipeline appears entirely doable. In addition, Washington could remove restrictions on the export of domestic oil.
Barclay's Glionna believes the end of export rules could spell trouble for the oil refiners, so investors would be wise to avoid names like Tesoro (NYSE: TSO), Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Marathon (NYSE: MRO).
That said, the Keystone Pipeline would more easily bring Canadian tar sands oil to domestic refiners, replacing cheap oil that might be headed overseas.
Perhaps the most risky play in the energy sector would be coal stocks. A Republican Congress could make it easier to export liquid natural gas, thus raising prices there.
Higher gas prices would theoretically lift coal prices.
Coal stocks like Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) have been absolutely devastated under the previous regime in Congress. A change can only make things better for stocks like Arch Coal.
Bob Doll like Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) with the change in control in Washington.
The vitriol over the Obama health-care law is well known. Republicans are likely to do what they can to roll back the law.
As long as Obama is president, don't expect much change there, but one area that might see a revision is the medical device tax.
That unpopular funding vehicle might be repealed with Republicans in control of the Senate. As such, stocks like Boston Scientific would be obvious beneficiaries.
Some have hypothesized that Sen. Richard Shelby from Alabama would be in charge of the powerful Senate Banking Committee.
It is well known that Shelby is a big fan of Fannie Mae, thus shareholders there should be emboldened for legislation that helps their cause.
Like all things political, it will take some time for the two parties to dance with the new music, but the statistical fact that stocks go up after midterm elections should make that point irrelevant.
Buy stocks -- period!
Jamie Dlugosch Editor Investor Research Institute
To Read More From Investor Research Institute Click Here | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer & Important Information | Copyright (c) 2014 Investor Research Institute| Privacy Policy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
No comments:
Post a Comment
Keep a civil tongue.