Place Your Bets on Market Gains for 2015

Monday, December 01, 2014 Place Your Bets on Market Gains for 2015   by Jamie Dlugosch   Gentlemen, start your engines!   Thanksgiving is over and the race has begun to finish out the year.   That means we need to start preparing for 2015, and the forecasts for the market are pouring in.   These forecasts might seem a bit whimsical since predicting the future is an exercise in futility, but their import to your strategy for the coming year is critical.   As far as one can ascertain a realistic picture of what will transpire in the market, one can set the appropriate strategy.     FURTHER READING OPEC's Worst Nightmare Comes True   The U.S. has been forced to deal with backward, oppressive regimes, like Saudi Arabia, for decades -- simply because geography had blessed them with massive reserves of the life-blood of modern society -- oil. Well, that dominance is now over. Because the United States is set to become THE leading energy producer in the world. This is the day the Saudi's -- and every other OPEC nation -- prayed would never come. And we've found a great way for the average guy to cash in.   Click here for all the details.     Market exposure and risk-taking in the market are issues that can be answered with a good forecast.   It won't tell you exactly how to invest your money, but a good prediction should give you some confidence in your actions.   Last year, for example, the market was coming off a year in which stocks gained tremendously. Because of those gains, most strategists expected a muted 2014.   The consensus for single-digit gains was so predominant that it was pretty easy call to expect a double-digit gain for stocks this year.   Sure enough, here we sit with one month to go and the S&P 500 is up over 12% year to date.   Those following the masses of nerves at the start of the year were the most whipsawed.   The tepid forecast led them astray and it cost them big time this year.   Don't make the same mistake twice. From the looks of things, 2015 is shaping up to be a year exactly like the last one.   The consensus for the coming year is very similar to last year. The naysayers are even more determined to be right about this market -- meaning they are most likely to be wrong about this market.   At best, they say, stocks are set to gain single digits in 2015.   That's just hogwash.   Those folks might have good reason to be skeptical, but I think they are missing the most important key with respect to predicting the end of the current bull market.   Historically, bull markets end in a wave of euphoria. Based on what the strategists are saying we are far from euphoric, and since this bull market will indeed end at some point chances are high that 2015 is going to be a good year for stocks.   The ingredients are certainly in place as we close out 2014.   Valuations are still reasonable and the Federal Reserve is full-on accommodative.   Even better, the collapse in crude prices will be highly stimulative in the short run.   Once again, those following the conservative strategist forecast are likely to miss out on a rally or worse -- they try to time the market and thus get whipsawed when the market moves against them.   It happened last year and will likely happen in 2015.   My suggestion would be to stay long and strong with a portfolio of the cheapest, fastest-growing stocks.   If you must time the market and wish to exit to the sidelines, I wouldn't do so until returns in 2015 hit 15% or greater.   At that point you will know that euphoria has set in. Until then, the best plan for next year is to sit tight by owning the right stocks.   Jamie Dlugosch Editor Investor Research Institute   To Read More From Investor Research Institute Click Here
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