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2014/12/03

Solar Stocks Set to Shine in 2015

Investor Research Institute Daily Newsletter

  Wednesday, December 03, 2014

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Solar Stocks Set to Shine in 2015

 

by Jamie Dlugosch

 

Shares of semiconductor memory-chip stock Spansion (NASDAQ: CODE) took off on Tuesday after it said it plans to merge with fellow semiconductor company Cypress Semiconductor (NASDAQ: CY).

 

I don't typically like to boast, but I recommended shares of Spansion to subscribers of my paid newsletter in September.

 

I mention this not because of the success of the trade, but the value of the lesson learned in the journey of the position start to finish -- and how we might be able to capture similar gains in an industry on  a comparable path today:  the solar space.

 

Spansion traded for around $22 per share when I first recommended the stock. It drifted lower in September before falling off the cliff in October.

 

 

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A horribly crafted statement regarding weak sales trends from another chip stock, Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP), sent the entire semiconductor industry spiraling lower ...and by spiraling, I mean bear market losses in some cases of 20% or more.

 

By mid-October Spansion traded for approximately $15 per share.

 

It was a disastrous trade down some 30%, but the fundamentals suggested this stock was worth a lot more than what the market was assigning at that time.

 

Here is what I wrote to my subscribers on Oct.14:

 

"For those aggressive souls now is the time to buy. In fact, the optimum strategy for those building a million-dollar portfolio is to be buying into this weakness. To the extent you have extra cash, it would be more than prudent to add to your October positions across the board.

 

Even adding a half position at these lower prices can result in recovering your losses far quicker than simply sitting tight.

 

That's the strategy I would follow.

 

Always, always, always buying when there is blood in the streets proves to be a most profitable and wise strategy. It's been proven time and time again."

 

I'll say!

 

With today's move, Spansion stock has nearly doubled from those lows in mid-October.

 

Lesson learned, I hope.

 

In today's market we are seeing the solar sector crushed in much the same way the semiconductor stocks were crushed in October.

 

The collapse in crude prices has resulted in profit-taking and massive short selling across the entire solar spectrum.

 

It matters little what the micro underlying business is doing. The general assumption is that lower crude prices destroys the value in solar.

 

That sort of mindless, simplistic thinking by an irrational market is what creates an opportunity in solar stocks today.

 

It's an absolute bloodbath. As I said in mid-October, buying when there is blood in the streets is always a good idea.

 

Deutsche Bank is out with a report suggesting that the link between crude and solar is overblown.

 

I would agree. Stocks like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) are all trading for deep discounts thanks to the irrational selling in the space.

 

I would consider owning all three stocks today for what could be some huge gains in the coming year.

 

Jamie Dlugosch

Editor

Investor Research Institute

 

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