I normally love it when billionaires fight billionaires. Watching egos get in the way of common sense is oddly satisfying. But in this case, my enjoyment is rooted elsewhere. I am talking about the fight between Bill Ackman and Carl Ichan with regards to Herbalife (HLF). What makes this clash of titans different is that one side has actually taken the moral high ground and is trying to do what is right. Bill Ackman has made this his personal cause to expose HLF for what it really is in that it is a pyramid scheme that preys on the poor and/or non-English speaking in the United States and developing companies. Mr. Ackman's efforts have actually gotten the federal regulators involved as he notes: "We have the government's attention," he said. "I feel the day [when Herbalife is shut down] is coming sooner." He goes on to say at a church gathering in Chicago, "It's an embarrassment to the country that this company exists". You could say that he is just talking up his nearly $1.2 Billion investment against HLF. True enough except that he has offered to donate any personal gain to TheDream.US. TheDream.US is a multimillion dollar National Scholarship Fund created to help immigrant youth who've received deferred action for childhood arrivals (DACA) complete their college education. He even went so far to provide "an advance" on his promise by donating $10 million before his HLF position is even closed out. If you are interested in seeing Mr. Ackman's full argument, please click this link:
Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."
The markets yesterday jumped out to huge gains, only to falter and slam to the lows. It was a huge reversal, and fits in line with the recent volatility we had. Even then, it was still pretty surprising to see how aggressively we sold off. With almost a 400 point swing off the highs, the market reversal really weighed heavily on stocks. I would look for the continuation today, but we can easily see a reversal back up. It is truly hard to gauge the market direction, with days like yesterday, all rules are thrown out the window. Nary a price level or technical support or resistance came into play on the drip until the very end. You should however look for the volatility to continue. Now that earnings season has kicked off, we could see even more volatility. It sure is fun to be a short term trader. Not so much for the investor unfortunately.
The rationale for entering a signal is usually a stand alone proposition. We get in based on any number of triggers that we have discussed at length. But, you have to realize that each signal will become part of a portfolio of signals that will have to be managed as such. Take the rationalization of our (non) exit signal in GMCR. Today was a harrowing day to say the least. The markets were all over the place and for the first time in quite some time had exhibited some real weakness. Our portfolio is largely skewed directionally now to the upside but we do have two bearish positions in our portfolio with a long VXX call spread and a long GMCR put spread. The VXX was doing fine but by no means exploding but our GMCR put spread was really performing well and we had reached our first support level. But we signaled no exit. Why? If we exited our GMCR we would have next to zero downside protection in the broad market and we were by no means realizing our full profit target. So, we have to hold this protection or a hedge against our other holdings until we realize our full profit target or we are convinced that the recent downturn has bottomed out.
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