As we get a brief respite from the "Grexit" banter for a couple of days while the Troika waits a few days to kick the can down the road, we can get back to looking at something far more important to those in the U.S., the "recovery" we are (not) experiencing. If you listen to television, things are looking up! The stock market continues to make new high after new high! How bad can it be if that's true? Let's be honest with ourselves. The U.S. economy, however it gets driven, needs production. In order to produce, individuals need jobs. Corporations will not lead the way out of this mess for any sustained period of time. So where are we on the individual front? Not good. Labor force participation for those aged 16-54 is the lowest it's been since the '70s.:
You can keep your "unemployment rate", labor force participation is what is important (along with wages).
Retail sales are down. But I thought that the huge drop in the cost of gasoline was going to be a defacto tax cut? You could argue that. But, unlike your tax refund check that comes all at once, this "tax cut" comes in the form of drips. Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management notes:
"While the typical consumer will save between $500 and $800 this year from lower gasoline prices,they do not receive a check up front. Instead, the savings accrue gradually as they fill up their tanks from week to week. On a weekly basis, the saving works out to between $10 and $15, which is meaningful for lower and middle-income households, but not enough to finance a spending spree, particularly right off the bat."
We have a lot of work left to do. Stimulating the economy ten bucks at a time just is not going to cut it!
Trade Well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull or perma-bear "experts".
The markets had choppy action and light volume. So naturally the SPX made new all time highs. The SPX hit the 2100 level and faced a small speed bump at that range. Initially the markets were down for the session, but of course rallied back and then pushed forward. With the FOMC minutes due out this afternoon, look for the chop to continue early on. We may even see some weakness and move lower in the markets. Then who knows which way we will go, but I expect a decent move with some lost volatility making an appearance. The upside has been the play lately, but we can face a pullback if there is a surprise by the Fed. Key words tied into the statement will be watched closely. Let's just get some movement, as some is better than none.
Account and capital management. A new, and even a seasoned, trader tends to be focused on the signal that is right in front of him or her. That is just one part of trading. Account and capital management play as big if not bigger a role. One thing that gets swept under the rug often is allocation. Allocation is about capital at risk and not the number of lots you trade. Also, it makes a difference what type of trade you are doing. Our signals fall into two broad categories, directional and IV-regression. In general, IV-regression trades off a better chance of profit, but less reward to risk. For signals such as these, it is prudent to allocate more capital towards it. Our general rule of thumb is 4% to 7%. Directional plays can be further broken down in to earnings-centric and non-earnings-centric signals. They are also not allocated the same. Earnings-centric signals are by their very nature binary. They either win or they lose. High risk, high reward. Because of the real risk of a total loss of premium, less capital should be allocated. Our rule of thumb is 2.5% to 4%. A non-earnings-centric signal is based on more robust technical triggers. Typically, these set ups will have a higher probability of profitability with a lower reward ratio. It is our opinion to allocate a bit more to these types of signals on the order of 3%-5%.
Watch how our instructors call out live signals, answer questions, provide detailed commentary and compare notes with fellow students. Our live classrooms offer training on all markets - where you can watch the exact techniques our top instructors use with simple, yet complete explanations of every move they make in real time.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Keep a civil tongue.