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2015/02/09

Exit?

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Exit?

The possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is escalating again. The newly elected government won on a promise to end austerity; however, there were stories in the media almost immediately suggesting that the new Prime Minster would back down. Despite being refuted at once, the mere suggestion was all that was needed for a strong rally in stocks.

Over the weekend, the opposite has been reported: The Greek government seems prepared to leave the Euro if a "new deal" isn't arraigned. Moreover, it is suggesting that other governments will do the same once Greece is gone.

From Reuters:

"The euro is fragile, it's like building a castle of cards, if you take out the Greek card the others will collapse." Varoufakis said according to an Italian transcript of the interview released by RAI ahead of broadcast.

The euro zone faces a risk of fragmentation and "de-construction" unless it faces up to the fact that Greece, and not only Greece, is unable to pay back its debt under the current terms, Varoufakis said.

"I would warn anyone who is considering strategically amputating Greece from Europe because this is very dangerous," he said. "Who will be next after us? Portugal? What will happen when Italy discovers it is impossible to remain inside the straitjacket of austerity?"

"Italian officials, I can't tell you from which big institution, approached me to tell me they backed us but they can't tell the truth because Italy also risks bankruptcy and they are afraid of the reaction from Germany," he said.

"Let's face it, Italy's debt situation is unsustainable," he added, a comment that drew a sharp response from Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who said in a tweet that Italy's debt was "solid and sustainable."

Varoufakis's remarks were "out of place", Padoan said, adding that Italy was working for a European solution to Greece's problems, which requires "mutual trust".

Italy's public debt is the largest in the euro zone after Greece's and Italian bond yields surged in 2011 at the height of the euro zone crisis. They have since fallen steeply and have so far come under little pressure from the renewed tensions in Greece.

Because of this, this week's market should see some extra volatility. But unlike in year's past when the Eurozone gave Greece whatever amount it needed to stay in the group because it feared financial Armageddon, there is something different. The ECB recently announced its own massive blank check of QE, which very well may be what keeps the markets from going completely berserk.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

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We saw a break in the week's trend, as the major averages closed in negative territory. As profit taking was prevalent, trading volume was light and the action was choppy. Capping off a strong week of gains for the markets, the profit taking slide was due. With the major averages trading at or near key price levels, it will be interesting to see how we open today. I suspect we can break to the downside before responding to a rally. We can easily slide back in the SPX, and be back to the 1975 range this week. This has been the way of the markets since the start of this year. A lot will tie in directly with crude futures, and how the European markets have been doing. We are in a volatile state, and have to expect as much in market movement. If we do break higher, it could mean a push for new highs. If we break lower, we maybe back to the huge swing in the markets

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TECHNICAL DATA
ES 2065.75/2050.25
ES 2050.00
ES 17,870/17,746
ES 4260.75/4223.75
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Why do our entry signals specify a limit price and why are our entry signals designated "Not GTC"? It is important to note that options trading is unlike other types of trading such as how Dan O'Brien trades the ES or Patrick Assalone does in the Day Trading Rooms. A signal in our room is not simply a signal to buy or sell the market. Our methodology identifies a favorable set up, defines the reward to risk we require and sets a limit price for entry. If a student determines that he or she wants to "jump the signal" or get in more aggressively than we intend, that is just fine. It is important to realize that although our outlook wouldn't necessarily change, the reward to risk ratio might be vastly different. The orders are put in "NOT GTC" so that we can reserve the right to reassess our entry the following trading day should we not get filled the day of the signal generation. We enter signals on OUR terms, no one else's.

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Watch how our instructors call out live signals, answer questions, provide detailed commentary and compare notes with fellow students. Our live classrooms offer training on all markets - where you can watch the exact techniques our top instructors use with simple, yet complete explanations of every move they make in real time.

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