NFP

VIEW ONLINE

UPCOMING EVENTS

NFP NFP is an acronym that some many non-traders don't understand. This jumble of letters stands for Non-Farm Payroll data; otherwise known as the monthly payroll report. Will it be a hit or a miss? We won't really know until we read the government's report this Friday morning; however, the following is a guesstimate from our friends at ZeroHedge. Yesterday, in the aftermath of the latest disappointing economic data this time from the non-mfg ISM, Goldman surprised many when it cut its January non-farm payroll estimate from an above consensus 250K to a below consensus 210K (the Wall Street estimate is 230K), some scratched their heads why Goldman is now forecasting the lowest pace of job growth since August, and well below the 12 month trailing average of 246K. The answer may have something to do with this. The US chief analyst of Nordea, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, points out a curious statistical finding: in the past decade, consensus forecast over-estimated January reading on 9 out of 10 occasions. As the chart below shows, the average overoptimistic consensus miss for January is just about 50K, with the last time consensus was lower than the final result taking place in 2012, and before that, one has to go all the way back to 2003 for the second payrolls "beat". So will tomorrow be 10 out of 11, or will this time be different, as the BLS refuses to admit the crude reality of the shale patch for yet another month and hides the mass terminations that are taking place among energy companies with another layer of unprecedented seasonal adjustments? By the time you read this, the data will have already been released. Will it make a difference in the world? Will it make a difference in the EU or Greece? Will it make a difference in the US? Will it make a difference in the market? Only Janet knows. Wait – what? We all know the answer: NO! It will not make a difference; however, it will be fun to see how the media spins it. Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts." Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia. Read Past Issues of Larry's Newsletters at TradeWithLarry.com

The markets rallied again today, bouncing off the swing low and looking to directly test recent resistance. With over a 4% gain this week alone, we are back to normal so to speak. That being said, I can see the markets gain early tomorrow, and slide late into the session. I am expecting the slide from the short term profit takers. However, there is a chance we rally and rally strong. It will be a battle based on where we open and the reaction at the price levels. The 2064 level is a key resistance level in the SPX. If we jump above or push through tomorrow, it can accelerate the buying on a possible breakout. We might be at a make or break range in the markets. Either way we should see some volatility in the markets tomorrow. Read More

TECHNICAL DATA ES 2055.25/2048.75 ES 2053.25 ES 17,790/17,714 ES 4246.00/4230.50

Selling option premium is an enticing proposition. You sell it, then wait for implied volatility to come in or play the decay in your favor and take your profits. Can't lose right? Sadly, it's not that easy. Selling premium has very significant, sometimes catastrophic risk. Theoretically, you have unlimited loss potential. So how can a retail trader participate much the same way the big money does? You can sell an iron butterfly or an iron condor. They are essentially the same type of trade. It is just how the strikes are structured. In an iron condor, the "middle"' strikes are not the same strike and an iron butterfly has the "meat" as the same strike. You sell the "meaty" straddle or strangle and then buy a further out put and a further out call to cap your risk. Let's take the example of Hasbro (HAS). They report earnings this upcoming Monday before the open. Their average move on earnings over the last two years is 3.6%. Using the implied volatility for February expiration, we can calculate a one full standard deviation move of 6.67% in either direction. That targets the 52.50 strike to the downside and the 60 strike to the upside. With HAS trading 56.25 we can sell the 52.5/55/57.5/60 iron fly for $1.10 mid market. If HAS stays between 55 and 57.5, you collect the entire premium. You break even at $53.90 (55-1.10) and $58.60 (57.5+1.10). The most you can lose is $1.40 no matter what happens (2.5 max width less premium collected). If HAS goes to zero, you lose $1.40 or if it goes to $1,000, you lose $1.40 because you capped your risk by buying the protective outside options. This gives a retail trader the ability to "sell premium" while keeping themselves in the game should the unforeseen occur. Read More

Watch how our instructors call out live signals, answer questions, provide detailed commentary and compare notes with fellow students. Our live classrooms offer training on all markets - where you can watch the exact techniques our top instructors use with simple, yet complete explanations of every move they make in real time. DAY TRADING - MARKET PROFILE Instructor: Patrick Assalone Monday-Friday 7:30AM - 2:00PM CST DAY TRADING - FOUNDATION Instructor: Joel Hawthrone Monday-Friday 8:30AM - 3:00PM CST DAY TRADING - E-MINI Instructor: Dan O'Brien Monday-Friday 8:30AM - 3:00PM CST STOCKS Instructor: Charles Moon & Dan O'Brien Monday-Friday 7:45AM - 4:30PM CST Options Instructor: Scott Bauer & Michael Shorr Monday-Friday 8:30AM - 3:00PM CST CURRENCIES Instructor: Dan O'Brien & Charlie Lewis Monday-Friday 7:00AM - 2:00PM CST PROP TRAINING Instructor: Chris Mullaney Monday-Friday 7:45AM - 4:30PM CST

unsubscribe  |  update preference  |  visit website

Trading Advantage , all rights reserved 2014 ©

IMPORTANT NOTICE: The risk of loss in trading futures, options on futures, stocks and stock options can be substantial and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC only provides educational services. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. The hypothetical signal results shown above represent signals offered in real time in the training room. A signal does not get posted unless there is a reasonable likelihood that if an order had been placed it would have been executed. Further, adjustments are made to simulate the costs of commissions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The posted information is shown for educational purposes only and no signal shown was actually executed as a trade. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site.

Copyright © 2015 Trading Advantage
Our address is 111 West Jackson Blvd, 1122, Chicago, IL 60604, USA
 
If you do not wish to receive future email, click here.
(You can also send your request to Customer Care at the street address above.)