| |
China Takes Aim at the U.S. Dollar China has its sights on the U.S. dollar... and is about to pull the trigger. The Chinese have been taking a series of actions to establish their currency, the yuan (also called the renminbi), as a global reserve currency. This is a direct assault on the U.S. dollar. In early April, former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers publicly warned: "This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system." I wish he was wrong. But I really think he's right. In its latest move, China established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), direct competition for the U.S.-led Asian Investment Bank and World Bank. China invited the world to join the AIIB. The U.S., grasping at the shreds of its dignity like a dowager grasping at the threads of a faded cotillion gown, asked its friends to please NOT join the AIIB. Guess what the rest of the world did? They joined the AIIB in droves. Even longtime allies like Germany, France, Taiwan and Britain - yes, Britain - joined the AIIB over America's objections. And remember Kuwait? Remember how we saved its entire country when Saddam Hussein invaded? Yeah, it joined, too, after we asked it not to do so. This led former Treasury Secretary Summers to blast: I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the combination of China's effort to establish a major new institution and the failure of the U.S. to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain, to stay out of it. The legitimacy of U.S. leadership depends on our resisting the temptation to abuse it in pursuit of parochial interest, even when that interest appears compelling. We cannot expect to maintain the dollar's primary role in the international system if we are too aggressive about limiting its use in pursuit of particular security objectives.
Plenty of our "frenemies" joined too, including Turkey, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other usual suspects. In all, 46 nations joined the AIIB. But the AIIB is not the only threat to the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status. So is "CIPS." As I mentioned recently, China plans to roll out the China International Payment System (CIPS) in September or October. This system is direct competition for the other international payment system called SWIFT, which is a key support of U.S. dollar hegemony. China also increased the number of banks that can officially clear yuan transactions. This is part of the plan to make the yuan easier to use in trade. The number of banks has jumped to 14 from just four a little more than a year ago. China has also signed a stack of bilateral currency-swap agreements with other nations. It has signed nearly 30 such yuan currency-swap agreements since 2008, including those with the European Union, Australia, Canada and Great Britain. And it's not just China. Some other developments... - Russia, which is a keen backer of China's CIPS, is also proposing a regional currency union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. That way, these countries will be able to cut the U.S. dollar out of any trade deals they make among themselves.
- OPEC is engaged in a "duel to the death" with U.S. oil producers. OPEC oil supply jumped to 30.63 million barrels per day in October. Saudi Arabia's oil production just surged to 10.3 million barrels per day in March, its highest on record. The goal of all this is to chip away at higher-cost U.S. oil production, which is one of the things supporting our economy.
- And Saudi Arabia is selling more and more oil to China. As China buys more oil from Saudi Arabia, it makes less and less sense to clear those transactions in U.S. dollars. What currency does make sense? The yuan, of course.
So one of the big events I'm looking for is the petrodollar to be replaced by the petroyuan. Now, not all this will happen right away. These things take time. The rain has to fall for a long while before the flood arrives. So the good news is we have time to put on our wading boots - and maybe even buy a boat. As you prepare for the coming storm, I suggest you look at three types of investments: Investment No. 1: Precious Metals. Since gold and silver are priced in dollars, as the dollar goes down, they should go up. In fact, the new bull market in gold has already started in other currencies. Check out this chart of gold priced in euros, Canadian dollars and yen. You can see that, in just the past five months, gold has rallied 7.2% in yen, 13% in Canadian dollars and a whopping 18% in euros. Just wait until the dollar tops out. The move in gold could be a blockbuster. And select gold miners even more so. Investment No. 2: Energy Producers and Exporters. The world needs more and more energy all the time. If you can pull something out of the ground and export it for another currency, you could do very well as the U.S. dollar slides. Investment No. 3: Companies With Costs in Dollars and Profits in Other Currencies. This is a long list, but basically you're looking for companies that stand to see their profits go up as the dollar goes down. Select airlines, shippers and exporters are on this list. Change can be scary. But it's also an opportunity to reassess what you're doing and fix those things that aren't working. I hope America uses the coming changes productively. But even if it doesn't, you can still protect yourself and potentially reap a whirlwind of profits. Good investing, Sean Brodrick for Free Market Café P.S. I firmly believe the demise of the petrodollar will be a life-changing global shift... and it's going to be playing out before our very eyes in the coming months. The consequences will be serious and widespread. But I have no doubt that the well-prepared should make out exceptionally well. Click here to check out our special presentation on this urgent situation.
Here's ONE Darn Good Idea From President Obama... President Obama prides himself on being the "president of the people." But did you know he's quietly been collecting as much as $5 million, thanks to a surprising source 99% of all American citizens CAN'T access? Yet now, we've found a perfectly legal back door for ordinary people to get in on this moneymaker - for as little as $15. And you will be SHOCKED when you see how much income there is to be made here. Check out the exposé on Obama's secret here. | | |
| | |
| RECENT ARTICLES | | Platinum is dirt cheap, at least relative to gold. This relative pricing is strange as platinum is about 30 times rarer than gold in the Earth's crust. You might think something that rare would cost more. But that's not the case, at least not at the moment. Read On... | |
| | | The psychology of a distressed real estate market is a lot like a grieving process. There are various stages of denial and anger until acceptance is reached - acceptance that your real estate is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it. Read On... | |
| | | Circle September on your calendar. That's when the world you know might change forever... and not in a good way. September is when China plans to roll out the China International Payment System. As a result, the yuan will officially become a global trading currency. Read On... | |
| |
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Keep a civil tongue.