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2015/05/19

If You're Worried About Rising Interest Rates, Read This...

Rising rates? Who cares?
Rude Awakening
May 19, 2015
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If You're Worried About Rising Interest Rates, Read This...

  • Rising rates? Who cares?
  • Why the experts will get it wrong... again
  • Plus: No. More. Phones.

Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg GuenthnerOur good buddies on Wall Street and in the financial press are tearing their hair out over potential rate hikes from the Fed. They're losing their minds predicting when the hikes will happen and just how bad they'll be for the stock market.

Don't listen to any of it. In fact, you'll see in just a minute how one of our favorite trades is shaping up for a nice run right now, despite all that talk...

Look, you can set your watch by the experts' predictions. And by that I mean they're wrong almost all the time. Don't believe me? Just check out this handy graphic:

Let's see here. Way, way back in January almost every economist in the land was predicting a rate hike in June. Fine. But as the year wore on these brainiacs began changing their minds. Fast forward to today and you'll see they almost universally agree we'll get that magic rate hike in September.

So given their record, I'm not betting the house on a September rate hike. But I am betting the house on an endless parade of hysteria between now and the fall. Think about it. We're about to enter the low-volume, boring trading months of June, July, and August. There'll be plenty of blank space to fill if nothing else is going on--so why not rampant speculation about rate hikes and how stocks will potentially react to the news?

And we're already beginning to see the side effects of all this rate talk. I told you last week that utilities, which thrive on low interest rates, are getting slammed while banks are creeping higher. These groups will probably continue to pinball as the rate debate intensifies.

But there are other sectors feeling the rate-hike heat right now. Have you checked out homebuilding and housing-related stocks lately? They've gotten pretty dinged up since early April. Some folks are worried that rate increase will scare off new buyers and sink the housing market.

But I'm seeing signs indicating the market could prove a lot of folks wrong. Just check out some of the homebuilder stocks out there. I'm seeing some healthy, tradable bounces in this space right now...

So tune out all this "will the economy be strong enough for a rate hike in September?" talk. It's all noise.

And follow the bouncing charts instead...


Top-secret gov't document reveals JFK's REAL assassin?

Fifty long years after the shocking death of John F. Kennedy, a controversial piece of new evidence has been brought to light...

As shocking as it sounds, this document may have unlocked President Kennedy's real assassin... and why they really killed him.

Click here for the shocking investigative piece on Kennedy's REAL assassin.


Rude Numbers

When to Buy... When to Sell
$59.60

buys a barrel of crude today. Oil is back below $60 as it drops about 1% in early trading...

$2.86

is the price of copper this morning. Dr. Copper is taking a dive. It's down nearly 2% on the day...

$1,219
is where you'll find gold futures today. The yellow metal is down about $8 in early trading...
$3
is the price of natural gas this morning. Unlike oil, gas is actually in the green today...
2,131

marks the spot for S&P futures just before the morning bell. Stocks are set to open in the green once again today...


Rude Trends

When to Buy... When to Sell

I told you to stop writing to me about cell phones. But you didn't listen. And I just couldn't resist this gem:

"JUST MAYBE us old codgers would like to rest and exist in public without hearing constant nauseating drivel from inconsiderate cell phone users describing their last night's sexual orgy," a reader says. "After all, you were conceived well before the cell phone made any area a phone booth."

Err...

Compared to the handful of one-sided cell phone conversations I end up accidentally eavesdropping on over the course of a day, not once have I stumbled upon one so... interesting.

But maybe that's a good use for any phone booths that are left out there in the world. We can stuff them full of all the loud-talkers wearing Blue Tooth headsets...

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]


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