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�	�	The authors argue that an over reliance on global trade may make these production shocks worse The impacts are most likely to be felt across Africa and the Middle East Poor harvests and low stocks of grains in combined with a host of other factors to produce a spectacular price rise in cereals with a�UN index of peaking at times higher�than it was at the turn of the millennium	�	�
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In aheat wave in Russia led to the countrys worst drought in years decimating the grain harvest and leading indirectly to food riots in North African countries as of bread rose rapidly Now researchers from the US and the UKhave analysedthe chances of extreme weather events	�		�	Looking at the production of rice wheat maize and soybeans the scientists found that the the chances of a one in year production disruption is likely to increase to a one in year event by
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�	�	From onward they estimate that severe shocks which could see global production drop by could be happening in seven out of ten years It is very difficult to characterise these extreme events and their frequency but what we do see quite clearly is that events that are very rare in the present day are becoming more frequent in the future said Kirsty Lewis one of the authors from the UKs Met Office The most extreme events of the future are likely to become more intense so potentially larger shocks and more frequent shocks	�	�
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�	�	TheUNs Food and Agriculture Organisationsays that increasing population will drive demand for food up by by in any case so there is going to be significant pressure on food production Deficiencies in key nutrients can cause blindness a painful swelling of the neck called a goitre stunting and a weakened immune system Scientists are looking at a range of approaches to fight malnutrition such as cultivating insects and grog meat in laboratories Could science improve the nutrition of s Climate change could be the extra element that rapidly changes the global picture Weve got these pressures on the food system part of which is climate change said Prof Tim Benton from theUK Global Food Security Programme But were highlighting the fact that with weather variability and increases of extremes we are adding a layer of difficulty Because it happens suddenly within a year it is more difficult to adjust slowly like wed cope with demand increases If we are coping with demand increase by sustainable intensification but then we suddenly have a catastrophic year and we lose a big chunk of the worlds calories everybody will feel it The biggest impact of these production shocks were likely to be felt across Africa and the Middle East said the authors Countries like the UK and the US would be able to cope because more processed food is consumed in the wealthier regions so the changing price of basic commodities was less of a factor in the price The most vulnerable countries that are going to be worst affected are low income fooddeficit countries predominantly those in subSaharan Africa said author Rob Bailey from Chatham House You can imagine that the poorest households in these sorts of countries spending upwards of of their income on food So if you are in a situation where food are increased by that leaves them in an almost untenable position he said The researchers say that international trade worked well when food was in plentiful supply but when demand increased countries often imposed export controls which usually made the situation worse	�	�