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2015/08/14

[TA DAILY] GDP

As the market continues to wrestle with its overall weakness on the one hand, and the 

 
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Larry's Morning Commentary

GDP
 
 

200-day moving average (support) on the other hand, other issues will continue to pop up despite the current technical chart angst.  Moreover, the economic cycle will not stop due to the aforementioned indecision.  Central planning must continue; it MUST survive!

An economic report suggests that future GDP may be weaker than Fraud Street currently believes(shocking) , which we'll look in to. Well, with the potential future drop in GDP estimates, the central planning cabal will surely need to be working overtime.  (What Would Janet Do?)

Thursday's business inventory report was good at first sight, but its derivative effects may be bad for future GDP.  Estimates centered on a reading of 0.3% but it was 0.8%, which is clearly much better.  So what's the problem?  To put it simply, if companies worked hard to build inventories NOW, but there aren't the same demand (or more) then many of those employee will be fired in the near future, and far less inventories will be "built" next quarter.

Due to this seemingly good report, The Atlanta Fed released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing a (future) inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. Not shockingly, the Atlanta Fed estimate is now 75% below Fraud Street's consensus. But why would facts matter to a shill on Fraud Street?

 

From the Atlanta Fed...

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on August 13, down from 0.9 percent on August 6.

The previously reported nowcast of 1.0 percent for August 6 was revised down due to a minor adjustment in the method for nowcasting investment in computers and peripherals. Since a week ago, the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth has declined from -1.8 percentage points to -2.2 percentage points.

This decline more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the third-quarter growth rate in real consumer spending from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent after the release of this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Like the current market being caught between selling pressure and the 200-day MA mega-support level, the Fed is in the same situation: there is pressure to raise rates now before it's too late versus the terribly weak Obama economy.

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

 
 
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The major averages bounced around yesterday during the session. Going from lows to highs once again, we did see some heavy selling coming at the end of the day. Yet, the DJI still managed to finish in positive territory for the session. With recent volatility kicking up on the markets, these swings should not have been...

 
 
 
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TECHNICAL DATA
ES 2085.50 / 2076.50
POC

2080.25

YM 17,406 / 17,316
NQ

4542.00 / 4517.00

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You can pretend to trade in the theoretical world but at some point if you want actual money, you are going to have to trade in the actual world.  You have a lot of things to consider.  Bid/ask spreads, volume, open interest and even regulatory issues.  There is FINRA regulation out there known as "PDT Margin requirement"...

 
 
 
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